Reports that the Bush administration and Israel continue to prepare for a military attack on Iran persist, in spite of the catastrophic results of such an assault for both countries and the Middle East.

In the Oct. 8 New Yorker, reporter Seymour M. Hersh points up the recent shift in statements by President Bush to place blame for American failures in Iraq on Iran, as opposed to Iraqi resistance to U.S. occupation or al-Qaida influence in Iraq. The new White House argument casts developments in the Middle East in general as a U.S.-Iran confrontation. In other words, the only way the United States can achieve victory in Iraq is by waging war on Iran as well.

In Israel, opinion on such a war is divided, reflecting sophistication engendered by being within rocket range of the war the Bush administration and some Israeli leaders may be planning. Some Israeli sources expressed considerable discomfort that hard-line Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni would take the occasion of her visit to the United States to deliver Israel's address at the U.N. General Assembly to build support for such an attack on Iran. The position of pro-war Israeli leaders is that, with Iraq gone as a threat to Israel, only Iran remains. With some Iranian leaders uttering lethal threats against Israel and with Iran probably seeking to develop a nuclear weapons capacity, even though deployment would be years off, those Israeli leaders believe Iran should be neutralized as a military threat now.

It is important to consider what such a war would entail. To take out possible Iranian nuclear sites would require widespread, extensive bombing, inflicting considerable civilian casualties. U.S. Special Forces would have to invade Iran, to pinpoint and eliminate nuclear and training sites. Iran would have to react vigorously, even though most Iranians probably do not desire war with the United States or Iran's former ally, Israel. The targets for Iran's military response, apart from Israel, would include America's Persian Gulf allies, particularly those that host American bases such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The world price of oil would soar, with gasoline prices in the United States rising drastically.

The impact on the U.S. war effort in Iraq would be complex. Iran would seek to cause the United States difficulties there through its Shiite allies. The United States could find troops to fight Iran or to protect Israel probably only by withdrawing forces from Iraq.

Such a war would have bad results for Israel as well. It would find itself standing beside a stretched and weakened United States in a furious and dangerous Middle East. Any chance of a peaceful resolution of its problems with the Palestinians would be destroyed for the foreseeable future. That might please some Israeli elements now, but would not be in the best interests of Israel's long-term prospects.

With all of the reasons that exist for not starting a war with Iran, it should be unnecessary even to make the argument. But troubling reports like Mr. Hersh's indicate that an attack is still in preparation, in spite of the cold reality of the calculus.