First order of business today is to announce the winner of what I hope is the Geek's first and last "Guess The Date of the Pirates' 82nd Loss" contest.
George N. Sibley, deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Madagascar, e-mailed three weeks ago with "Sept. 17 to the Padres." That put him just two games behind the actual 82nd loss, which came in Houston.
Congratulations, Mr. Sibley. A can of Iron City awaits you in Pittsburgh. Mr. Sibley also predicts 84 victories next year, keeping the Pirates from "that blasted record" of 16 consecutive losing seasons set by the Philadelphia Phillies from 1933-48.
One way to get there is to extend Freddy Sanchez's contract. Among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances since Sept. 1, 2005, only Ichiro Suzuki (.336), Vladimir Guerrero (.328) and Matt Holliday (.328) have topped Sanchez's .328 average, with the latter two ahead by fractions.
Sanchez's 95 doubles the past two seasons lead all players and give him a chance in the next couple of weeks to join a select club.
Only 15 players have hit 100 doubles in a two-season span. Eight are in the Hall of Fame. Others will be. Joe Medwick (120 in 1936-37) leads, followed by George "Not The George with Gracie" Burns (115), Billy Herman (114), Todd Helton (113), Hank Greenberg (109), Craig Biggio and Tris Speaker (107), Garrett Anderson (105), Chuck Klein and Edgar Martinez (104), Albert Pujols (102), Don Mattingly and Stan Musial (101), Charlie Gehringer and Paul Waner (100). Waner is the Pirates' leader, nailing the century mark in 1932-33.
Sanchez already has the team mark for most doubles in a season by a third baseman (53) and most by a second baseman (42 through Sunday). He has hit .328 with a .365 on-base-average and .464 slugging average the past two years. On a team of question, he's Steady Freddy.
I started this column with old-school stats because some fans still don't believe in OPS (on-base average plus slugging average). But it comes up again as I put in a word for Nate McLouth, whose good work recently has been overshadowed by Nyjer Morgan's defense.
Only a soulless geek would deny the thrill of Morgan's A-(Willie)Maysin over-the-shoulder catch at the wall with the bases loaded in Houston, topping a diving catch he'd made earlier that week in PNC Park.
Morgan has struggled with the bat, however, hitting .214/.279/.286 in 56 AB. He needs to move toward the .305/.379/.367 he hit in 177 AB at two minor-league levels this season, with 26 steals in 33 tries. Because the guy Morgan bumped from center, McLouth, was one of many reasons the Pirates went from scoring the NL's fewest runs in July to the most in August.
The following graph comes with the caveat that Pirates center fielders of the 21st century often have a good second half only to have the staying power of Dexy's Midnight Runners. That said, here's how McLouth's post-All-Star numbers stack up to earlier ones from Tike Redman, Chris Duffy and Adrian Brown.
|
|
BA |
OBA |
SLG |
OPS |
|
Redman, '03 |
.330 |
.374 |
.483 |
.857 |
|
McLouth, '07 |
.255 |
.351 |
.490 |
.841 |
|
Duffy, '05 |
.350 |
.395 |
.433 |
.829 |
|
Brown, '00 |
.311 |
.378 |
.407 |
.785 |
|
Duffy, '06 |
.282 |
.345 |
.366 |
.710 |
Duffy's '06 is included because he also stole 23 bases in 24 tries. McLouth has stolen 19 of 20 this season, the NL's highest success rate among runners with at least 20 attempts.
His power and improved batting eye also are noteworthy. He has gone from a rookie who slapped ground balls and almost never walked in 2005 to a selective hitter (walking in 9.5 percent of plate appearances) who drives the ball. Almost 45 percent of his hits have gone for extra bases, and with a home run every 26 AB, he's in the neighborhood of Ryan Doumit (HR every 28 AB) Jason Bay (24.9 AB, in an off year) and Adam LaRoche (24.8).
McLouth long has worn the "fourth outfielder" label, but he has performed best playing regularly, He has scored 38 runs in 49 games as the leadoff hitter. He could be another Rob Mackowiak who fades with more playing time, and he won't field like Morgan, but McLouth's season is encouraging.
Moreso is Jack Wilson's. His torrid second half puts him above most hitters for the season (.297/.354/.445 through Sunday), complementing his great glove. Wilson leads all major-league shortstops with 108 double plays; Sanchez leads all NL second basemen with 111; and the Pirates make double plays in 15 percent of DP situations, third-best mark in baseball. That's well above the NL average of 12.7 percent and last year's Pirates mark of 12.6, as kept by Baseball Prospectus,
In June, I wrote that the Pirates weren't strong up the middle. That was true then. It is no longer.