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PrintParty registration and overall political performance suggest that the congressional district in Pennsylvania's northwest corner should be a classic swing seat.
 Rep. Phil English |
His comfortable tenure continued a pattern set by his predecessor, Tom Ridge. Both had tough initial fights to win the seat, but both cemented their holds on the district in a series of relatively comfortable re-elections.
Emboldened by their triumph in the 2006 congressional elections and the continuing unpopularity of the war in Iraq, Democrats in the district and in Washington contend that 2008 will be the year that breaks that mold.
Mr. English concedes that the coming election figures to offer tough political terrain for incumbents but said he remains confident of re-election. Citing a list of issues he's worked on in Congress, and in particular through his seat on the powerful Ways and Means Committee, he said, "I've got a lot of arrows in my quiver."
One of them is his outspoken opposition Gov. Ed Rendell's plan to place tolls on Interstate 80, which crosses his district. The issue sparked the first flurry of statewide headlines mentioning Mr. English since his unsuccessful 1988 run for state treasurer against Catherine Baker Knoll, now the lieutenant governor.
His opposition to tolling I-80, and that of his ally, Rep. John Peterson, R-Venango, have sparked criticism from Harrisburg, even from some of the Republican lawmakers who approved it in the Legislature. Mr. English argues that his stand has appeal across party lines.
For whatever criticism he has faced on the issue, it's certain that as another election campaign looms, Mr. English would rather be debating toll roads than the war in Iraq.
He has tried to steer what he characterizes as a moderate course on the war. His opponents portray him as an unwavering supporter of the Bush administration.
Mr. English was one of only 17 House Republicans who voted against the administration's surge in troop strength in Iraq. On the other hand, he has voted against legislation calling for timetables for withdrawal from the war.
He supports legislation in the House that would give the president a deadline for offering a reformulated strategy on the war.
An example of the line he has tried to walk came earlier this month, when he voted "present" on a bill, opposed by the administration, that would require minimum periods of rest for troops between deployments.
Mr. English said he supported the concept behind the bill but found it to be "poorly drafted" and "a weak solution to a real problem."
At least three Democrats have lined up to oust Mr. English, contending that his stands on the war and on such issues as trade are too close to those of the administration. He counters that on trade and other issues, he has demonstrated his willingness to defy the administration and vote for his district's interests.
In the face of the strong Democratic tide of 2006, which swept away three of his Republican House colleagues across Pennsylvania, Mr. English still managed to win with nearly 54 percent of the vote. While that would normally be seen as a relatively comfortable margin, Democrats took it as evidence of increasing vulnerability given that it was achieved against an underfunded opponent, Stephen Porter, whom Mr. English had defeated with more than 60 percent of the vote in 2004.
"He is one of our top targets," said Carrie James, an aide to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
The DCCC underscored its plans with a series of radio commercials in Erie tying him to the administration's war policies.
Already lining up to face him are Tom Myers, an Erie lawyer with ties to organized labor; Kyle Foust, an Erie County Council member and an administrator at Mercyhurst College; and Mike Waltner, a community outreach worker at the Cathedral of St. Paul in Erie.
Mr. Porter has continued to pepper the incumbent with criticism since the last election, but he recently dropped his Democratic registration because of his dismay with the conduct of the new Democratic majorities in Congress, in particular their failure to act more effectively to end the war. He said last week that he was still debating whether to run again, this time as an independent.
"He's vulnerable," Mr. Myers said of the Republican. "He's underserved Western Pennsylvania for many years."
"He's been all over the place on the war," said Mr. Foust. "There's been a lot of jobs shipped out from this region. He's on Ways and Means; that's supposed to be a powerful committee, but what's he done with it?"
Said Mr. Waltner, "People are unhappy with the direction this country has been going in. He's not demonstrated an ability to lead on the war."
The incumbent agrees with at least one part of Mr. Waltner's assertions.
"People have a strong sense that the country in not on the right track, the economy is not on the right track," Mr. English said. "My main competition is the political environment."
In Congress, Mr. English has tried to etch a moderate image reflecting a district that is socially conservative but includes large working-class areas and substantial union representation.
"He started out as a moderate; as the district became safer for him, he became more conservative," said Robert Speel, a professor of political science at Penn State Erie. "Now, he's trying to polish his moderate image."
In recent interviews, all three of Mr. English's prospective opponents sought to tie him to the district's loss of manufacturing jobs, criticizing his stance on foreign trade. The Republican counters that he has pursued an independent course on the contentious issue.
While he has voted for some trade-promotion measures, such as fast-track authorization for trade negotiations, as a former chair of the Congressional Steel Caucus, he was active in urging the imposition of temporary steel-import quotas during President Bush's first term.
Mr. English's base of Erie County is the most heavily Democratic part of a district that extends down the state's western edge and over to Butler County. Dr. Speel, the author of "Changing Patterns in Voting in the Northern United States: Electoral Realignment 1952-1996," noted that redistricting has made the seat more Republican and that growth in the district has been concentrated in its most Republican segment, the burgeoning Butler County suburbs of Pittsburgh.
While those demographic shifts could help the incumbent, probably the biggest unknown variable for next year's contest is the identities of the candidates at the top of each party's presidential ticket. For the GOP nomination, Mr. English has endorsed former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, a candidate whose past appeal to independent voters might produce the best swing district climate for a Republican.
"If the Democrats have a good [House] candidate, and it's a good year for Democrats, he could be in trouble," said Dr. Speel.
In a Congressional Quarterly profile, Mr. English described himself as "an economic populist who is also pro-business."
He sees his upcoming battle on I-80 in that mold.
"Tolling I-80 is fraught with unintended consequences," he said. "I think Gov. Rendell got some very bad advice on that ... It's a badly thought-out proposal that would generate a lot of revenue for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia but at the expense of the I-80 corridor."
He and Mr. Peterson quietly inserted language barring the tolls in pending House legislation.
"If someone was asleep at the switch, I don't apologize for that," he said of the legislative maneuvering.
Members of House's Democratic majority said they are confident that they will be able to excise the language, but Mr. English said he would continue to make the case against the issue with the federal Department of Transportation.
"There's a level of disaffection with both political parties that is palpable," Mr. English said of the nation's overall political climate.
"It's an environment that can be fatal to an incumbent of either party, and fatal to the unwary."
Count Mr. English among the wary.
"I'm operating under the assumption that our race is going to be very much in the cross-hairs."
