Zach Duke gets the ball in St. Louis tonight, looking to stop the stumbling Pirates' latest two-game losing streak. Think back to how that thought made you feel two seasons ago. You loved Duke's chances. It didn't matter if Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols were in the other team's lineup. Duke was going to get 'em out. He was going to win the game. He was going to be the Pirates' ace for a decade or more.

I'm guessing you're not feeling quite so confident now.

You're probably wondering:

Who is that guy wearing Duke's No. 57 jersey? And what did he do with the real Zach Duke?

I know I am.

It would be wrong to suggest Duke has been the Pirates' biggest bust in what looks as if it's going to be a 15th consecutive losing season. That would be Adam LaRoche, whose batting average sunk back below the Mendoza Line with another 0-fer Sunday. Or your 2006 National League batting champion Freddy Sanchez, who went three weeks between RBIs. Or even Ronny Paulino, who hit .310 last season and smoked everything in spring training but is hitting .227 now.

Duke hasn't even been the biggest disappointment among the four young starting pitchers whom the Pirates have pushed as franchise saviors. That would be Paul Maholm, who was miserable again Sunday in a 5-2 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. How much longer can the team stick with him?

But that doesn't mean Duke's fall isn't perplexing.

How does a healthy pitcher go from being seemingly unhittable to giving up more hits than anybody in baseball?

The easy answer is to blame Jim Colborn, who tinkered with Duke's mechanics after he took over as the Pirates' pitching coach before the '06 season. I can't say I see any sense in messing with a guy who was a two-time National League rookie of the month in '05 after joining the Pirates in July and led minor-league baseball with a 1.46 earned run average in '04, but I'm thinking Colborn knows a little more about pitching than I do. I'll also remind you of an appropriate quote attributed to late, great NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle: "If it ain't broke, fix it anyway."

You know, make it even better.

Duke dismissed the Colborn-as-villain theory, saying, "People made a big deal about it last season for no reason. There was some tinkering done, but it was a small thing. It was so small it was hard to tell if I was doing it right or wrong. I feel pretty much the same as I used to. I don't think there's much difference."

Duke cites the adjustments hitters have made to him. "They're taking a totally different approach against me." He, obviously, hasn't done as well adjusting to their adjustments. Hitters are putting the ball in play more. Never a big strikeout pitcher -- "I pitch to contact," he said -- his strikeouts have decreased at an alarming rate, from 6.17 per nine innings in '05 to 4.89 last season to 3.04 this season.

Duke also blamed lousy luck. "When I first came up, it seemed like every ball was hit right at somebody. Now, it seems like nothing is going at somebody. A lot of soft little singles are falling in. It seems like every time I turn around, there's someone on base."

Do ya think?

A total of 81 hitters have reached base against Duke in his 50¹/₃ innings.

Really, who is that guy wearing No. 57?

In '05, Duke went 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA. Teams hit .253 against him.

Last season, Duke went 10-15 with a 4.47 ERA. He lost 10 consecutive decisions on the road. Opponents hit .302 against him. He gave up 255 hits, the most in baseball.

This season, Duke is 1-4 with a 5.19 ERA. Opponents are hitting a mind-blowing .340 against him.

That's a disturbing trend.

Or a lot of really rotten luck.

Duke says the numbers are "misleading." He pointed out that he has left "five or six" of his nine starts with the lead. (Actually, three). He mentioned that his ERA would be "something around 3" if you threw out his two worst starts. (He's right; 3.05.) He talked of pitching better recently. (He's right again; his 2.87 ERA in his past five starts is better than Ian Snell's during that period.) And no one has to tell you that the Pirates' offense has been dreadful; it has produced a total of 18 runs for Duke. (See LaRoche, Sanchez and Paulino above.)

But none of that changes the bottom line.

Duke set the bar extraordinarily high as a rookie and hasn't come close to living up to the expectations it generated.

That brings us to the game tonight in St. Louis.

Adam Wainwright gets the call for the Cardinals. He was a World Series hero as a rookie closer last season, getting a win and a save against the Detroit Tigers. But this season? He's 3-3 as a starter with -- get this -- a 6.34 ERA. Opponents are hitting a whopping .343 against him.

Talk about a fascinating pitching matchup.

For all of the wrong reasons.