Peter Diana, Post-Gazette Pirates manager Jim Tracy: "We're not in a division where a club is pulling away" Click photo for larger image. Today Game: Pirates (LHP Zach Duke 1-4, 5.19) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Adam Wainwright 3-3, 6.34), 8:10 p.m., Busch Stadium. TV, radio: FSN Pittsburgh, WPGB-FM (104.7). Key matchup: Everybody vs. St. Louis. The Cardinals, looking nothing like a defending champion, have lost five in a row while being outscored, 42-25. Of note: Wainwright, a converted reliever who looked promising in the new role early in the season, has given up six or more runs in three of his past five starts. That includes eight runs in two-plus innings last Tuesday in Los Angeles. Related articles Pirates Notebook: Rogers recalled; Chacon likely to start Cook: What happened to Zach Duke remains a mystery Stats Geek: Don't always save the best for last Pirates Q&A with Dejan Kovacevic

Imagine this call over the PNC Park loudspeaker in early October:

Ladies and gentleman, your 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates ... the National League's Central Division champions!

Ridiculous?

Laughable?

The punch line to some cruel, go-ahead-and-rub-it-in joke?

Yeah, probably. Truth is, if the Pirates keep performing as erratically as they have in the season's opening quarter, there is no chance.

At the same time ...

"We have 4¹/₂ months of baseball left to play and, obviously, we're sitting in a division right now where clubs are not playing all that well," manager Jim Tracy said. "We're not in a division where a club is pulling away."

Hard to dispute on all counts, especially when the fourth-place Pirates begin a road trip tonight in which they play two opponents -- St. Louis and Cincinnati -- below them in the standings.

Some derisively refer to it as the Comedy Central but, even if one is not willing to go that far, there is plenty of evidence that it is not Major League Baseball's strongest division. Only Milwaukee is above .500, and the division's record against non-division opponents is 43-59, a .422 winning percentage. Over the past weekend alone, the Central went 2-10.

Breaking them down:

Milwaukee, after sweeping the Washington Nationals, the National League's worst team, has lost 7 of 11, all outside the division. The Brewers are 17-8 against the Central, 11-9 against everyone else, raising some doubts about their legitimacy. No question Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy and the rest of the lineup can hit, but the pitching is thin -- any team relying on Ben Sheets is living precariously -- and the defense remains suspect.

Houston is in second place as the result of a modest four-game winning streak early last week. The Astros no longer have Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to carry them, and Roy Oswalt can pitch only once every five days.

Chicago invested a quarter billion dollars in upgrades in the offseason, but that also is roughly the number of hairs Lou Piniella has ripped out of his head because of a shaky bullpen. With Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs seem to have the greatest capability for a surge. But when?

St. Louis is off to its worst start in Tony La Russa's 12 years as manager, with no end in sight. The Cardinals have lost 20 of their past 30 and have lost 13 times by four or more runs. Most of that has to do with the starters' 5.48 ERA, but how to explain Albert Pujols batting .273?

Cincinnati is even worse. The Reds just finished a 2-7 trip, have not won a series all month and are challenging the Nationals for the league's cellar. And the kicker: Thanks to a miserable bullpen -- Victor Santos has been among their stalwarts -- they have blown 15 leads.

"As for us," Tracy said of the Pirates, "we have played better baseball. We seem to be heading in the right direction offensively. We've got two guys for certain who are giving us very consistent innings in the rotation. We've got two other guys that we're up and down with."

That might be the key. Terrific as Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell have been, two-fifths of a rotation is not going to get it done. Much more is needed from Paul Maholm and Zach Duke, the pitcher tonight, and from whoever is named today to be the starter Saturday in Cincinnati.

At the moment, the starters' 4.45 ERA is lower only than St. Louis'. And their bullpen's 4.13 ERA ranks fourth.

As the Pirates' opening quarter showed, though, good pitching will mean nothing if the bats sleep through it all. The first signs of life came in the final eight games of the just completed 4-6 homestand, with the offense averaging 6.8 runs per game.

"What I'm interested in seeing is if, offensively, we can take the offensive approach on the road with us that we've had for the last few games of this homestand," Tracy said. "I think we're putting ourselves in position to score more runs more often."

Still, the Pirates' .246 batting average is the lowest in the division.

Can they win it?

"Definitely," reliever John Grabow said. "You win a couple games, and you're in second place. But we can't afford to dig ourselves too deep a hole."

"I think we've got a good chance," catcher Ronny Paulino said. "We haven't been very consistent so far, but I think we're getting to that point. Look at the way Adam LaRoche is starting to hit. Look at our pitching staff."

He mentioned other teams, too.

"Look at Milwaukee's record outside the division. It's not the same as the way they've played before. It's going to be interesting to see what they do. And St. Louis was the team all of us are used to chasing. But they're not playing well at all. They've been having a lot of trouble."

The latter was a point third baseman Jose Bautista raised, too.

"We've played every team in the division already, and we haven't faced somebody where we go out there and think we're going to get whupped," Bautista said. "In the past, we'd go out against St. Louis, and four of their five starters would be top of the line. They don't have that anymore."

But what of the Brewers, who have "whupped" the Pirates in five of six meetings so far?

"Milwaukee's been playing really good baseball," Bautista said. "We'll see if they can keep it up. It's going to be hard for them to do. Everything they've done so far, hitting and pitching, has been outstanding, and it's hard to keep that up all year."

The Pirates, he added, will need to work from their perceived strengths.

"Our pitching and defense are our keystone. If we keep those up and get some hitting going -- not necessarily 10 hits a night, but just some key hits -- we might be at the top of this division."