Last week I answered the question of whether I would invest in today's market, given its exuberance, by stating that any time is a good time to invest. A reader took me to task using the year 2000 as an example of a bad time to invest and pointing out that Church & Dwight Co. Inc. lost value in that year.
The reader should have researched the situation in a little more detail. Church & Dwight, which produces cleaning and other products such as Arm & Hammer baking soda, began the year 2000 at 22 and ended 2000 at 22. Furthermore, as I have reiterated numerous times, investing is a three- to five-year proposition, not a one-year undertaking.
Now, assume you had invested in Church & Dwight at the beginning of 2000 at 22 and then continued to hold your investment. With the shares at nearly $50 today you would have achieved a 14 percent annual compounded rate of return. I stand by what I said.
Another frequently asked-about topic is foreign investing. If you want to invest in foreign companies, one of the easiest, safest and most efficient ways of doing so is via American Depositary Shares, which represent shares of a foreign company but trade here. More importantly, companies represented by ADS are required to provide financial statements that meet our GAAP standards.
One of my favorite companies issuing ADS, and one that I have discussed in the past, is Novartis AG (Ticker: NVS). Created in 1996 through the merger of Ciba-Geigy and Sandoz, Novartis is organized into four divisions, pharmaceuticals, vaccines and diagnostics, Sandoz (generics) and consumer health (mostly over-the-counter medications).
A month ago, Novartis signed a definitive agreement to sell its Gerber baby food business to Nestl???or $5.5 billion in cash. This completes a long-standing divestiture program and allows the company to focus all its efforts on strategic growth in the previously mentioned divisions.
A year ago when I wrote about Novartis, my 2006 earnings estimate was $3.20 per share and I had a target price of $62, vs. to a price back then of $55. Although earnings came in a bit light of my estimate at $3.06 per share, the number was still a 16 percent increase over 2005.
Sales increased 15 percent to $37.02 billion, while operating income was up 18 percent to $8.17 billion. The shares recently traded at $57.40 after reaching a high of $61.70 last November.
The company began 2007 with some strong numbers for the first quarter as net sales increased 18 percent to $9.8 billion. Operating income advanced 11 percent to $2.5 billion. Earnings were 92 cents per share.
Novartis revised its 2007 net sales outlook on March 30 when it announced that it would suspend sales of Zelnorm, at the request of the FDA, taking into account a reduction in net revenues of more than $600 million during the remainder of 2007.
Nonetheless, Novartis reaffirmed its expectations for another year of record operating and net income from continuing operations. As a side note, Novartis is one of the few nonfinancial services companies worldwide to have attained the highest possible credit ratings from Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch, the three benchmark rating agencies.
The intrinsic value of the shares on a discounted earnings basis, with an earnings growth rate of 7.5 percent and a discount rate of 11 percent, is $65, while a discounted free cash flow to the firm approach yields an intrinsic value of $75 per share.
My earnings estimate for 2007 is $3.44 per share with a target price on the shares of $63, yielding a gain of 10 percent over the next nine to 12 months. In addition, there is a current dividend yield of 1.6 percent.
