Baseball 2007: Picking apart the Pirates' roster

Sunday, April 01, 2007

By Dejan Kovacevic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

BRADENTON, Fla. -- In roughly 24 hours, the Pittsburgh Baseball Club begins its 121st season with 25 players eager to snap the streak of 14 losing seasons.

Want more numbers?

Below is a breakdown of the roster -- including injured players Freddy Sanchez and John Grabow -- with 2006 statistics, 2007 projections and a word or two on that player's outlook.

The projections are compiled by The Bill James Handbook.

Click on position to see the players.
Starters	Relievers	Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders

STARTERS

ZACH DUKE	#57		LHP
2006 Numbers	34 GS	10-15 W-L	117 K	4.47 ERA
2007 Projected	32 GS	12-13 W-L	132 K	3.96 ERA

Outlook: No pitcher in the league gave up more than his 255 hits, but he steadied in the second half and recaptured some of that rookie glory. Key will be locating the fastball -- especially inside -- early for strikes.

IAN SNELL	#45		RHP
2006 Numbers	32 GS	14-11 W-L	169 K	4.74 ERA
2007 Projected	31 GS	10-12 W-L	167 K	4.22 ERA

Outlook: The staff's lone power pitcher averaged 92.8 mph on his fastball last season, third-highest in the league, and his 8.18 strikeouts per nine innings ranked sixth in franchise history. A maturing changeup should cut down those 29 home runs.

PAUL MAHOLM	#28		LHP
2006 Numbers	30 GS	8-10 W-L	117 K	4.76 ERA
2007 Projected	28 GS	8-11 W-L	109 K	4.55 ERA

Outlook: Eighty-one walks and 12 hit batsmen gave too many batters a free pass. His aim this spring was to trust his stuff and attack the bat, and he did plenty of that with good results. He might be the rotation's biggest variable.

TOM GORZELANNY	#24		LHP
2006 Numbers	11 GS	2-5 W-L	64 K	3.79 ERA
2007 Projected	27 GS	9-7 W-L	122 K	3.49 ERA

Outlook: A subpar spring had many doubting the decision to keep him, but management would not forget that five-start stretch last season when he allowed seven earned runs. His rope, though, is short.

TONY ARMAS	#46		RHP
2006 Numbers	30 GS	9-12 W-L	597 K	5.03 ERA
2007 Projected	32 GS	8-11 W-L	119 K	4.63 ERA

Outlook: Wild pitcher or wild card? When he is sharp, he stays efficient and pounds the zone, as he did this spring. Health is a question: His 30-start 2006 in Washington was a rarity in a career plagued by shoulder trouble.

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RELIEVERS

SALOMON TORRES	#16		RHP
2006 Numbers	94 GP	72 K	38 BB	3.28 ERA
2007 Projected	89 GP	61 K	33 BB	3.91 ERA

Outlook: He had a small taste of closing in September and nailed 12 of 13 saves. Great. But now? Key is a strong start. Although his second-half 1.22 ERA last season was second-lowest in the majors, the 4.63 mark before it was inadequate.

MATT CAPPS	#55		RHP
2006 Numbers	85 GP	56 K	12 BB	3.79 ERA
2007 Projected	83 GP	60 K	9 BB	3.67 ERA

Outlook: His 85 outings were a franchise rookie record, and his control - seven unintentional walks -- was immaculate. If he continues those trends, he could topple Torres before long.

JOHN GRABOW	#34		LHP
2006 Numbers	72 GP	66 K	30 BB		4.13 ERA
2007 Projected	75 GP	68 K	32 BB	4.50 ERA

Outlook: No reliever in the league fared better at stranding runners than his 82.5 percent, but a red flag has been raised with spring elbow trouble. If it lingers, be sure the bullpen as a whole is in serious trouble.

DAMASO MARTE	#43	LHP
2006 Numbers	75 GP	63 K	31 BB	3.70 ERA
2007 Projected	72 GP	65 K	29 BB	3.69 ERA

Outlook: Much as the Pirates appreciated his career-high 75 outings, the gnawing aspect of his 2006 was that 1-7 record that accurately reflected failure in tight situations. Still, when he is on, he is unhittable.

SHAWN CHACON	#32		RHP
2006 Numbers	26 GP	62 K	63 BB	5.82 ERA
2007 Projected	26 GP	78 K	64 BB	5.23 ERA

Outlook: From starter to reliever to closer? He had 35 saves for the Rockies three years ago, and management likes his heat enough to give him a shot at late-inning duty.

JUAN PEREZ	#36		LHP
2006 Numbers	7 GP	3 K	1 BB	8.10 ERA
2007 Projected	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Outlook: Is he just a fill-in for Grabow? Probably not. No reliever had a better spring, and his 95-mph fastball and filthy slider do not have a fluky feel. Moreover, Jim Tracy has said he would be happy to keep three lefties. Control can be an issue.

JONAH BAYLISS	#54		RHP
2006 Numbers	11 G	15 K	11 BB		4.30 ERA
2007 Projected	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Outlook: He has a history of spotty command, but he won a job this spring with plenty of swings and misses, many through a hard changeup. Oh, and he had 23 saves for Indianapolis in 2006.

JOHN WASDIN	#37		RHP
2006 Numbers	9 GP	16 K	13 BB	5.10 ERA
2007 Projected	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Outlook: The biggest surprise of camp, all this 14-year professional did was get people out until someone noticed. Might he be the one keeping Grabow's seat warm?

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CATCHERS

RONNY PAULINO	#26		C
2006 Numbers	.310	137 H	6 HR	55 RBI
2007 Projected	.298	134 H	9 HR	56 RBI

Outlook: The best path to improving upon his rookie season would be to add some of that pop he showed in the minors, and he began doing that with an outrageous .471 spring. Still, his top duty is handling the staff - Tracy loves that part - and his top priority is improving defensively.

HUMBERTO COTA	#11			C
2006 Numbers	.190	19 H	0 HR	5 RBI
2007 Projected	.239	32 H	3 HR	16 RBI

Outlook: He owned the majors' lowest average last season, so nowhere to go but up. First good sign: He batted .375 in spring.

RYAN DOUMIT	#41			C/RF/1B
2006 Numbers	.208		31 H	6 HR	17 RBI
2007 Projected	.266	45 H		6 HR	28 RBI

Outlook: Catcher? Outfielder? First baseman? Who cares if he lives up to his potential as a power-hitting switch-hitter?

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INFIELDERS

ADAM LAROCHE	#25			1B
2006 Numbers	.285	140 H	32 HR	90 RBI
2007 Projected	.281	144 H	29 HR	89 RBI

Outlook: For all the talk about his explosive second half in Atlanta, check out this number from his full 2006: His .561 slugging percentage ranked 12^th in Major League Baseball. The three guys behind him: Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Justin Morneau. Next order of business: Can he hit cleanup?

FREDDY SANCHEZ	#12			2B
2006 Numbers	.344	200 H	6 HR	85 RBI
2007 Projected	.319	179 H	6 HR	67 RBI

Outlook: Is it realistic to ask for another batting title? Maybe. Twenty-eight times in National League history, the champion has repeated. But a more realistic expectation is getting a .300-plus hitter, a fiery competitor and, if he stays healthy, a defensive upgrade at second base.

JACK WILSON	#2			SS
2006 Numbers	.273	148 H	8 HR	35 RBI
2007 Projected	.269	163 H	9 HR	51 RBI

Outlook: It seems no one wants him to bat second other than Tracy, who appreciates that Wilson can do small-ball things to advance Chris Duffy and that he makes good contact. Fair enough, but what about that career .305 on-base percentage? Not top-of-the-order material.

JOSE BAUTISTA	#19			3B
2006 Numbers	.235	94 H	16 HR	51 RBI
2007 Projected	.252	66 H	10 HR	35 RBI

Outlook: Know this first: He did not beat out Jose Castillo for anything. He batted .207 in the second half last season, then fared far worse than Castillo this spring. But the Pirates like his power, love his range and hope he can narrow his strike zone to raise that average.

JOSE CASTILLO	#14			2B/3B
2006 Numbers	.253	131 H	14 HR	65 RBI
2007 Projected	.268	120 H	12 HR	60 RBI

Outlook: The job he lost this spring could be his again with some fresh effort and focus. But then, it is effort and focus that cost him that job. Or will the Pirates try -- again -- to trade him?

DON KELLY	#29		lF/OF
2006 Numbers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2007 Projected	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Outlook: Mt. Lebanon's own utilityman will be a Jose Hernandez Jr. of sorts. His bat is dubious, but his defensive awareness and flexibility is not.

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OUTFIELDERS

JASON BAY	#38		lF
2006 Numbers	.286	163 H	35 HR	109 RBI
2007 Projected	.299	173 H	35 HR	109 RBI

Outlook: The Pirates' model of consistency played all year on a wobbly knee that cut his doubles and steals in half, but he still put up a .928 on-base plus slugging percentage - an excellent measure of hitting prowess - that ranked 19^th in the majors. He is becoming so consistently good that it is getting dull.

CHRIS DUFFY	#6		CF
2006 Numbers	.255	80 H	2 HR	18 RBI
2007 Projected	.285	80 H	3 HR	24 RBI

Outlook: The Pirates call him their catalyst, based mostly on a sizzling final 45 games last season in which he batted .315 and stole bases almost at will. But it takes too selective a memory to isolate on that span when he fell so far at the season's outset. And when he batted .190 this spring.

XAVIER NADY	#22		RF
2006 Numbers	.280	131 H	17 HR	63 RBI
2007 Projected	.278	107 H	15 HR	55 RBI

Outlook: Forget those 17 home runs in 2006. All but three came with the Mets, and his power to left-center is a poor match for PNC Park. Still, his decent average and ability to go opposite field make him a fine complementary piece. Good glovework, too.

BRAD ELDRED	#35		1B/RF
2006 Numbers	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2007 Projected	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Outlook: Could he push Xavier Nady in right field? Hey, why rule out anything with a guy whose check-swings can damage the ozone? The key: More walks.