I wouldn't know a Bodog if one bit me in the wallet, but this online betting concern, bodog.com, puts the odds of the Pirates winning the World Series at 70 to 1.

That's relatively kind. I've seen odds as high as 300 to 1 elsewhere on the Web. The Pirates' run at decency after the All-Star Game last year hasn't dented the American bettor's belief that the 14-year losing streak is in no danger of stopping.

I'm using Bodog only because it favors round numbers, but you won't find tremendous argument on who the betting favorites are. The odds for winning the National League Central Division run this way at Bodog: St. Louis, 7-5; Chicago, 3-2; Milwaukee, 5-1; Houston, 7-1; Cincinnati, 8-1; the Pirates, 20-1.

The betting line for victories has a similar order. Bettors put money on whether the team finishes above or below these marks, and the number is set to attract roughly the same action in either direction: St Louis, 85 victories; Chicago, 84¹/₂; Milwaukee, 81¹/₂; Houston 78¹/₂; Cincinnati, 77; the Pirates, 72.

True idiots can also place bets on exhibition games, but I digress. My point here is not to promote gambling (though I'd take the "over" on 72 wins).

My point is that major-league rules say somebody has to win this miserable division, and the experts believe it won't take much more than 85 wins.

That's not a number beyond belief for the Pirates if absolutely everything goes right. It can't be called likely, but it's less of a challenge than it would be in any other division.

The Pirates' weaknesses are obvious. The team needs more hitting from the infield players; it could use a right fielder with power; it lacks a true ace; at least one young pitcher is due for a fall; its manager believes the right kind of out in the first inning is more important than on-base percentage; the team doesn't "know how to win"; some fans don't like that new alternative red home jersey; you name it.

But the Cardinals stumbled to the division championship last year with a mere 83 victories and went on to win the World Series. It might not take much more than that this year.

The Pirates look better on paper than the 2006 team, so let's entertain the notion that they can compete in this division because they already have. Kind of. Sort of. In a way.

You may recall that a year ago every team in the division except the Pirates had a winning April, partly because the other five teams won 16 of 19 against the Pirates. The locals had Humberto Cota catching most games, Joe Randa at third base, Sean Casey and Craig Wilson at first base, Jeromy Burnitz in right field, and Ollie Perez and Victor Santos combining for 11 starts and an earned run average north of 7.00.

The team's 7-19 start was richly deserved.

By May 1, Freddy Sanchez and Ron Paulino had succeeded Randa and Cota.

As the season grinded on, Casey, Wilson, Burnitz, Perez and Santos either lost their starting jobs or were traded, and the Pirates got better. The rest of the division did not.

Don't get me wrong. Every team still stunk. But the stench from Pittsburgh wasn't much worse than the general divisional odor. No NL Central team had a winning record from May 1 on. These are the standings for the five months after April 30:

Even knowing that the Cubs improved their team this winter by committing the equivalent of a dollar for every man, woman and child in the United States, and that Derek Lee is returning from injury, it's hard to see how odds go from 3-2 for the Cubs to 20-1 for the Pirates to win this division.

I think the Brewers can win it, provided their ace, Ben Sheets, stays healthy.

But I also think the Pirates have improved while the Astros and Cardinals have not.

The Reds also seem to have stayed still.

Make of that what you will, but the Pirates' .441 post-April percentage translates to 71¹/₂ wins over a 162-game season. The over-under number seems to have been set in the right place.

It still should take at least 13 games on top of that to win the division, but fans should know by April 30 whether improvement was just a mirage.

Twenty of the first 26 games are against division rivals.