Nothing comes easy these days in the Episcopal Church.

Its latest controversy involves the Rev. Mark J. Lawrence, the former rector of a McKeesport parish who is bishop-elect of the Diocese of South Carolina.

Church canons dictate that his election be approved by a majority of both of the denomination's 111 diocesan bishops and standing committees. The former have done so. The latter have not, and as the midnight Monday deadline for consent approaches, the Rev. Lawrence could become the first clergyman in more than 70 years not to be confirmed as bishop.

The combination of the Rev. Lawrence's conservative theology and a determined effort by church liberals to block his confirmation have caused Episcopalians to characterize the vote as a bellwether of where the 2.2 million-member church is headed.

"It has nothing to do with Rev. Lawrence," the Rev. J. Haden McCormick, president of the standing committee of the Diocese of South Carolina, said of the vote. "It has everything to do with the politics of the worldwide Anglican Communion and the meltdown in the Episcopal Church."

The American arm of the Anglican Church first triggered talk of a schism when it consecrated openly gay Bishop V. Gene Robinson, of New Hampshire, in 2003. That led the leaders of a majority of the world's 70 million Anglicans to declare their relationship with Episcopalians "broken" or "impaired."

World Anglican leaders meeting last month in Africa gave the Episcopal Church until Sept. 30 to clarify its position on gay ordination and same-sex blessings.

While the Rev. Lawrence's first-ballot election in September would seemingly be far removed from such events, it is a microcosm of how the battle for the future of the Episcopal Church is waged today.

Chosen to replace retiring Bishop Edward L. Salmon Jr. as leader of the conservative diocese, the Rev. Lawrence initially appeared headed for easy confirmation.

As rector of St. Stephen's Episcopal Church in McKeesport from 1984 to 1997, he built the parish's membership, established the Mon Valley Tri-Parish Ministry to oversee two smaller churches in the region and served on numerous diocesan and community boards.

When he took over his hometown parish in Bakersfield, Calif., membership grew by 50 percent. The parish is in the Diocese of San Joaquin which, with 7,000 members, is one of the church's smallest, and among its most conservative. The diocese passed resolutions in December that, if confirmed at its diocesan convention this year, would set in motion withdrawal from the Episcopal Church and alignment with another Anglican church.

That poke in the eye of the national church helped galvanize the opposition to the Rev. Lawrence. Still, his consecration as bishop initially appeared to be on schedule for February.

The momentum slowed in late fall as his positions were parsed in various Episcopal blogs and e-mail lists.

One of the first appeared in October in Lionel Deimel's Web log. Mr. Deimel, of Mt. Lebanon, is vice president of Progressive Episcopalians of Pittsburgh, part of network of clergy and laity around the country seeking to maintain the theologically diversity of the church. In his blog he compared approval of the Rev. Lawrence to the election of a politician opposed to the Constitution.

"It should be clear that Mark Lawrence has little respect for The Episcopal Church and is disdainful of any church claiming autonomy for itself," Mr. Deimel wrote concerning the rector's comments about homosexuality and other current church issues.

"It is suicidal for the church to consecrate bishops dedicated to destroying it, bishops committed to making schism a reality. Granting consent for the consecration of Mark Lawrence is voting to implement his (and the primates') radical plan to emasculate The Episcopal Church."

In an interview, Mr. Deimel said turning down the Rev. Lawrence as bishop would be "an opportunity for the leadership of the Episcopal Church to stand up against the kind of insurgency that has been eating away at it for the past several years."

Furious lobbying has occurred since the Diocese of South Carolina reported last month that "yes" votes for consecration had topped out at 46, 10 short of the required 56 needed for a simple majority of the Episcopal Church's 111 diocesan standing committees, which govern dioceses along with bishops.

By late yesterday, several standing committees had changed their votes, and the Rev. Lawrence was four votes shy of being confirmed.

The Rev. Lawrence knows he's embodying the struggles of the church, and said in an interview that he has "surrendered this whole matter before God." Still, he has considered that his election could fail.

"Would I be disappointed?" he asked. "It's hardly a word that would get to the root of it."