As the Pirates go about the daily rituals of spring training, their core fan base is immersed in studying just about everything that goes on with the team. This group wants to glean every particle of information that might be meaningful so as to give itself a hint about the upcoming season. The fans are studying game reports, devouring box scores and examining the various Web sites to get some inkling of how good this team will be.

They're wasting their time.

Spring training is an excellent way for the players to prepare for the season. It's a terrible way to get a handle on the quality of the team. Exhibition-game performances are meaningless, both in terms of teams and individuals.

Decades ago, I discovered this the hard way. In the spring training of 1975, Pirates pitcher Dock Ellis, a flaky right-hander of immense potential, appeared to have put his eccentricities behind him and was coming of age. Ellis had been a good pitcher, but in March of that year he was close to perfection. He was 4-1. His earned run average was a miniscule 0.25. In 36 innings, he struck out 19 and walked five. It looked like he had arrived.

What's more, Ellis had confided in me that he was a changed man. He'd seen the light. Gin and tonics were no longer part of his late afternoon regimen. He understood what it took to succeed. He was taking his baseball seriously for the first time in his life. I wrote a story accordingly.

Manager Danny Murtaugh was impressed with Ellis, too. He named him his opening day pitcher. Ellis responded by allowing the Chicago Cubs nine hits and four runs in 4 1/3 innings. In his second start, he allowed the Montreal Expos four runs and seven hits in three innings.

Ellis staggered home with an 8-9 record and I never believed in spring training again.

It happens every spring, not just in 1975. Consider last year:

No one foresaw the breakthrough year he'd have, by winning 14 games, when Ian Snell was 0-3 with a 5.27 ERA in spring training.

Almost everyone saw a breakthrough year awaiting Jose Castillo, who batted .375 in the spring. What transpired instead was a possible career crippler as Castillo batted .253 and is in danger of losing a job that once looked like his for as long as he wanted it.

Ryan Doumit reeked of power when he hit five home runs in 48 at bats in March. He followed that with six homers in 149 at bats.

There are players, of course, whose regular-season statistics come close to mirroring what they did in exhibition games. But there are more than enough players whose spring training numbers don't approach those of the regular season to make all of the statistics meaningless.

It's not just the blur of stats that don't count for much. Actual accomplishments also can mean next to nothing.

Outfielder Luis Matsos caused a flurry of excitement in the exhibition-season opener Thursday when he homered twice. Matsos, though not on the 40-man roster, has more than an outside chance of making the team. But it won't likely be based on those home runs. For one, it was a windy day at McKechnie Field in Bradenton, Fla., a circumstance that can turn shallow fly balls into home runs.

For another, both homers came against Eric Milton, who even when he's in mid-season form is perhaps the most home-run prone pitcher in baseball.

In contesting for the fifth spot in the rotations last spring, Brandon Duckworth competed side-by-side with Victor Santos and was by far the more successful pitcher. Duckworth's ERA was 2.08; Santos' was 6.28. Santos made the team, Duckworth did not.

Nor should changes in physical appearance be any kind of barometer of the future. There are renewed expectations for Castillo this year because of the weight he has lost, and that should help. But there were similar hopes for Jack Wilson last spring because of the weight he had gained. Some 20 pounds of muscle were expected to enable Wilson to better handle the rigors of the long season and give him more pop at the plate. What it actually did was slow him down enough that his play in the field decreased appreciably.

None of this is to suggest spring training should be ignored. It shouldn't. It's fun to see how the players perform and begin to develop an opinion about the team.

Those interested in truly handicapping the 2007 Pirates would be better served to look at the back of the players' baseball cards. It's what these players have done in the past, over the long haul of their minor and major-league careers, that will more determine their future and the team's than a few dozen games in Florida.