A month ago, Early Returns listed four factors to watch in the Pittsburgh mayor's race: 1) campaign fundraising; 2) the Democratic Committee endorsement; 3) the Penguins decision on whether to stay or go; and 4) the whistleblower lawsuit by police Cmdr. Catherine McNeilly.
With 11 weeks to go, if you look at those factors, Mayor Luke Ravenstahl looks to be in control of the race with challenger Councilman William Peduto. The mayor is ahead on money, appears to be the favorite going into Sunday's committee endorsement, seems poised to settle Cmdr. McNeilly's suit for around $100,000 plus legal fees and thus avoid depositions, and hasn't lost the Penguins so far.
But today we'll add a fifth factor that strongly favors Mr. Peduto: the online race.
Launched in early December, the Ravenstahl campaign Web site is still just a two-page affair that invites the visitor to "Join us as we make history," by which it apparently means volunteer or give money to the incumbent's effort. No issues, no news, no videos.
Mr. Peduto's site, by contrast, is almost too content-rich. The front page allows you to click on either of two videos, one a testimonial, the other an interview with the candidate. It includes news of the Sierra Club's endorsement of Mr. Peduto and a roster of supporters. There's a blog that isn't entirely kissyface stuff, a partial bio, links to press coverage, and a way to contribute money. There's even one trick: Click on "Register to Vote," and you're transported to a form for wannabe Peduto volunteers, which includes a little box you can click that will apparently trigger the campaign to send you voter registration information.
And as much as the young mayor has been filmed since September, you wouldn't know it from going online. Go to You Tube and run a search on "Luke Ravenstahl," and all you get is Mr. Peduto's videos.
Mr. Peduto's lead in the online race is even more pronounced if you factor in the political blogs. Most of the local political bloggers skewer Mr. Ravenstahl almost daily, and heap scorn on mainstream media reports that, in their view, go easy on the mayor. A few key sites:
The Angry Drunk Bureaucrat (less anti-Ravenstahl than most)
MacYapper (media veteran John McIntire's site)
The People's Republic of Pittsburgh
If there's a rabidly pro-Ravenstahl blog out there, please let us know.
Few veterans of local politics would say that campaign Web sites or blogs will decide the May 15 primary. But it's notable that the blogs have started to influence mainstream media coverage. MacYapper's posts dictated the timing - at the very least - of the mayor's admission to his Oct. 31, 2005, handcuffing at Heinz Field. And last week, The People's Republic of Pittsburgh's series of informative and speculation-laced posts on police secondary employment played a role in prompting the Post-Gazette and, possibly, others to report on that subject.
The blogs are certainly stirring the electoral pot. Will that matter? There's no way to know, since there's really no precedent in a Pittsburgh election for the level of scrutiny they're giving to everything said by, or written about, the mayor. Another open question is whether the anonymity of some, and the willingness of a few to post just about anything, will spice up the stew of democracy, or poison it.
