Eugene Hoshiko, Associated Press A worker stands in front of containers at the newly opened Yangshan deep water port in Shanghai in 2005. China's surging trade surplus jumped 67 percent in January from the same month last year to $15.88 billion, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.

From multinational corporations headquartered in Pittsburgh to the "mom-and-pop" dry cleaning establishment in Cranberry, every business is caught in the cogs of a global economy whose engine more and more seems to be running toward the East.

Beginning with the Japanese move into a worldwide auto industry once so completely dominated by U.S. manufacturers, Asia has been slowly building its economic power to the point Asian companies now encroach on U.S. and European dominance in virtually all industries.

		Dennis Unkovic, of McCandless, a business lawyer with Meyer Unkovic & Scott LLP, can be reached at du@muslaw.com.

As Asian economic might has grown, the material quality of life of Asian people has risen dramatically, too. Today Asia represents not just competition, but a customer base as well for a wide spectrum of American businesses.

But Asia also has emerged as a competitor for the resources that are consumed to create high living standards, leading me to the first of five trends in Asia that I believe will have the most impact on the Pittsburgh regional economy:

Because of the growth of the economy and standard of living in China, India, South Korea, Vietnam and other Asian countries, energy prices will not retreat.

At this writing, gas prices are much lower than a few months ago, but do not be fooled. They are still high and will go higher because of unabated demand for oil, especially from Chinese consumers.

But the Asian energy appetite consumes more than oil. Coal demand also is exploding exponentially in China, which could raise the price of coal -- bad news for American utilities burning coal to make electricity and American manufacturers using coal to fuel manufacturing processes.

Ironically, Asia's craving for energy also may boost the Pittsburgh economy. To address long-term energy demands, many utilities want to take another look at nuclear power to generate electricity. Historically, Pittsburgh companies have had a fairly significant presence in the nuclear power generation industry, and we may benefit if this technology assumes a more important role in meeting energy needs. Already, China's government has selected a consortium led by Monroeville-based Westinghouse Electric Corp. to build four and possibly more than two dozen nuclear plants there.

The metals and commodities industries will continue to consolidate.

Like the auto industry before, companies dealing in metals and other commodities are rapidly becoming multinational. Asian companies such as Anben Iron & Steel and Asian-oriented companies such as Mittal Steel are looking to establish operations all over the world and to build long-term relationships with their customer base, which consists of a handful of companies just as global as they are.

Pittsburgh has long played a leading role in producing metals on many levels. As more primary metal producers and commodity companies merge, it will affect both large and small regional companies. Our larger multinational metal and chemical companies will see their operations go even more global. And our smaller niche players producing specialty metals or chemicals will find that it will be ever harder to do business unless they are part of a larger, more global operation.

Japan will decline economically relative to other countries.

The Japanese economy has appeared to improve over the past few years after a decade of economic malaise, but Japan faces several roadblocks to long-term growth. Japan is an aging country that refuses to offset declines in the work force through immigration.

Additionally, as other Asian countries grow, they are turning less and less to Japan for manufacturing expertise and financing. Japanese products are now more expensive than those rolling off assembly lines in Korea, Vietnam, India and China.

For 25 years, when Pittsburgh companies thought of investing in Asia or expanding to Asian markets, they thought only of Japan. When economic development professionals developed road shows to tout our region, they sent them to Japan. Over this quarter century, Japanese companies have invested substantially in Western Pennsylvania.

In the future, the business relationships between Pittsburgh companies and Asia will focus more on China and India.

The Chinese domestic economy supplants exports as the primary driver of the Chinese economy.

China's middle class already consists of 200 million consumers, and it is growing. That's an enormous market for goods and services. China, which once focused economic growth on exports, is now turning more and more to satisfying the ravenous demands of its growing domestic economy.

In addition, China is accumulating a horde of capital that it will continue to invest in the United States. As a new market and a new source of capital, China may play a major role in our regional economy in the coming decades.

But remember that China is staking its growth on manufacturing and Western Pennsylvania is no longer a center of manufacturing. Pittsburgh is a service and technology center. China's continued growth represents less competition for Western Pennsylvania than it does for Erie or the center of the state, which still depend on manufacturing much more than we do.

India will play a greater role in Pittsburgh's international business community.

The changing focus of the Chinese economy may or may not affect Pittsburghers, but the growth of India definitely will, for a number of reasons.

India has a high-quality well-educated labor force that speaks English. Wireless communication is rapidly helping India overcome infrastructure shortcomings. What that means is that in knowledge-driven businesses such as software development and software systems integration, India will emerge as a major competitor to the United States.

But before one bemoans the increased outsourcing of high-paying skilled jobs to India, consider this one fact. Because of the presence of the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University, there are few regions in the United States with as many economic ties to India as we have.

Many entrepreneurs from the subcontinent were educated or began their companies here, creating a strong network of business relationships between Pittsburgh and Indian companies. The emerging technology-based industries in Pittsburgh are the very industries gaining traction in India, e.g., technology- and knowledge-based services, systems integration and application software development. In a sense, Pittsburgh may ride India's coattails, which would be a good thing.

Horace Greeley once advised young Americans to "Go West young man, and grow with the country." I venture a guess that if around today, the 19th century newspaper editor would say, "Look East, young person," for it is in looking east that many Pittsburghers will find their economic future.