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Analysis: Clear field for Onorato's re-election; is run for governor his next goal?
Sunday, January 07, 2007

Dan Onorato spent Thursday morning in a series of briefings on the sharp cuts, including layoffs, that he and Port Authority Chief Executive Officer Steve Bland are proposing for regional transit.

A few hours later, he joined talks aimed at keeping the National Hockey League's Pittsburgh Penguins from leaving town.

He conceded that transit riders and union members are bound to be hurt and irate about the belt-tightening he's championing. And the politics of sports facilities have been perilous for Pittsburgh politicians for the last decade.

"The politics of it couldn't be worse for me right now," Mr. Onorato said. "The timing of this and the new arena, when everyone on both the Democratic and Republican side has a chance to enter my race up 'til March -- I'm totally exposed."

In less than a month, Mr. Onorato expects to formally announce his widely anticipated plan to run for a second term as chief executive.

But perhaps you should save your sympathy.

With the filing deadline for the primary just around the corner, there's not an opponent in sight for the North Side incumbent.

"I haven't heard a whisper," said Rep. Dan Frankel, D-Squirrel Hill. "I can't even think of anyone who's polled or looked at it.''

"I don't know of anyone," said Jim Roddey, the man Mr. Onorato defeated for the job four years ago. "The Republicans have been calling me about getting someone to run against him, but if someone does run it will simply be because the Republicans don't want to let him have a free ride."

It is a measure of Mr. Onorato's strength that the chief political speculation surrounding his name involves the 2010 governor's race, not the one for which his name will appear on the ballot this year.

Mr. Frankel said he assumed that Mr. Onorato was considering a future in Harrisburg as did Mr. Roddey. If he can sustain his polling numbers in southwestern Pennsylvania, he would have an enviable base for a statewide run.

Mr. Frankel was head of the Democratic House Campaign Committee whose efforts helped reverse GOP control of the state House for the first time in more than a decade last fall. The Democrats' polling in preparing for those races certified Mr. Onorato's popularity in the region and their campaigns did their best to exploit it.

"In terms of approval ratings, his numbers were phenomenal; I don't think I've ever seen anything quite like in it Western Pennsylvania," Mr. Frankel said. "Whether we were looking at suburban or city districts, his numbers were off the chart."

Mr. Frankel's committee used Mr. Onorato in its campaign effort in every competitive district in the county. His voice was used in an election-eve robo-call to Democrats in the Allegheny County portion of the 4th Congressional District, where Rep. Jason Altmire ousted incumbent Rep. Melissa Hart.

"He was a factor for Matt Smith, Chelsa Wagner; I think in the Dermody race, he was determinative,'' Mr. Frankel said, referring to two Democratic House freshmen from the county and to the Allegheny Valley race where Rep. Frank Dermody held off a well-financed challenge from former County Councilwoman Eileen Watt.

Mr. Onorato's aid to Ms. Wagner came despite the fact that she is the niece of his sometime rival, Auditor General Jack Wagner. Mr. Wagner narrowly defeated Mr. Onorato in a 1994 state Senate primary and is also considered a potential Democratic candidate for governor.

"Independent of whatever history he may have had with Jack, he established a good relationship with Chelsa," Mr. Frankel said.

Mr. Onorato's decision to push the Port Authority austerity package is not popular with some of his traditional supporters in organized labor, nor were the cuts in the county payroll, through a combination of layoffs and attrition, that he engineered in his first year in office.

"I wasn't too happy about what happened at the county and I'm not too happy about what's happening with the Port Authority at all," said Jack Shea, president of the Allegheny County Labor Council.

But the state's political history suggests that opposition from public employee unions is not a net negative for Democratic politicians. Gov. Ed Rendell remained popular through tough battles with municipal unions in his first term as mayor of Philadelphia, a pattern similar to the experience of another Democrat with North Side roots, former Pittsburgh Mayor Pete Flaherty.

"Danny has, in a lot of areas, helped us,'' said Mr. Shea. "In a lot of other areas, I'm not happy with what's going on, but ... Dan'll be the man [in the county executive race]."

Dave Fawcett, who holds the Republican's at-large seat on County Council, attributes Mr. Onorato's current strength to a combination of good policy and good political instincts.

"He's not an old-style party politician; he's taken on the old guard of his party, and he's reached across party lines and worked with Republicans on row office reforms and the county wide riverfront park, and I think people realize that," Mr. Fawcett said.

The Republican criticized Mr. Onorato's position on the thorny issue of property tax assessments, however, arguing that his stand in favor of a "base-year" system represented a triumph of political instincts over public policy.

"The only negative to me is assessments; that's an area where there's a reluctance to take on a tough issue,'' Mr. Fawcett said. "The assessment system is broken and there is not a pro-active attempt to fix it, although politically, that has proven to be wise."

In his first year in office, Mr. Onorato received generally high marks for his visible role in recovery efforts after the floods spawned by Hurricane Ivan.

Mr. Onorato cited the political risk of his Port Authority position. Pittsburgh City Council President Doug Shields has already announced a special council meeting to scrutinize the proposed cuts. Mr. Roddey contended, however, that Mr. Onorato would end up on the right side of public opinion.

"There will certainly be some people upset about cutting service, but it has to be done,'' he said. "And there will be more people who will support him than will not. Not only is this the right thing but [it's] probably on the right side of that issue politically.

"And remember," Mr. Roddey added, "when you're running for office, there are two constituencies -- voters, and, of course they're important, but there's also the business community, the people who write the big checks, and downsizing Port Authority would probably win with those folks nine to one."

A sunny political horizon can turn stormy quickly. Should the Penguins' talks sour, Mr. Onorato, deservedly or not, can expect to shoulder part of the blame. His assessment policy is now under challenge in Common Pleas Court. An adverse ruling could refocus critical attention on his handling of the issue. But for now, his political prospects appear robust.

At least publicly, however, the Democrat dismisses the notion that he faces an unobstructed road to re-election.

"There'll be someone; there'll be someone,'' he insisted.

First published on January 7, 2007 at 12:00 am
Politics Editor James O'Toole can be reached at jotoole@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1562.