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The dismal dollar: Foreign countries lose faith in our currency
Friday, December 29, 2006

Anyone who has stepped up to an ATM in Europe, made a withdrawal from his American account and then checked what the euros or pounds cost him in dollars, doesn't need to be told that the dollar is in something like free fall.

But the central bank of the United Arab Emirates made it official this week when its governor announced that the Emirates would be reducing their holdings of dollars over the next eight months by 8 percent, shifting to euros. The U.A.E.'s reserves stand at about $25 billion, so that constitutes about a $2 billion flight from the dollar.

The U.A.E. thus joins other oil-producing states -- Indonesia, Iran, Venezuela and Russia -- along with Switzerland and New Zealand in seeking to shift their currency reserves and use euros in trade rather than dollars. For Iran and Venezuela, the move is partly political in motivation, reflecting their governments' mighty distrust of the Bush administration.

For Indonesia and the U.A.E., even though both are largely Muslim states, the shift from dollars to euros is more a savvy economic choice. The U.A.E.'s approach to free market capitalism makes the Bush administration's concept of it look like 5-year-plan-style Stalinism by comparison.

So why are these countries -- and perhaps others who hold information about their currency holdings closer to their chests -- edging away from the dollar?

The reasons are obvious.

The first is the level of American economic growth. It will likely be around 3 percent this year, as opposed to China's 10 percent plus and India's likely 8 percent plus.

The second is the horrendous level of American government debt, now exceeding $9 trillion, half of which is held by foreign entities. Worse, likely budget deficits stretch into the distant future at $400-$500 billion per year, worsened by the Iraq war, which the Bush administration continues to insist on waging in spite of a shortage of military manpower, cash and national will.

The United States has to borrow $2 billion per day, much of it from China, India and the Arab oil states, simply to stay afloat. In the meantime, what the U.S. government pays in debt service, the interest on the $9 trillion national debt, continues to grow steadily, eating away at U.S. government disposable income.

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board does not inspire confidence either, dithering between reducing interest rates to stimulate a lagging real estate and construction market and increasing interest rates to stifle inflation.

So if you were the head of the central bank of an economically soaring state, in which currency would you hold your reserves? The Bush dollar or something more reliable? The dollar fell 10 percent last year against the euro.

First published on December 29, 2006 at 12:00 am