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Santorum may be down, but many think he's not out
Tuesday, December 26, 2006

WASHINGTON -- As the head of Pennsylvania's college Republican organization in 1977, Phil English visited Penn State University in search of a particularly promising student who had garnered strong recommendations from Sen. John Heinz's campaign staffers.

  
Rick Santorum
He remembers finding Rick Santorum in his dorm room. The future senator lived up to the billing.

"This was a guy with a lot of smarts and a very high energy level," said Mr. English, now a Republican congressman from Erie. "Rick was a guy who did not acknowledge limitations."

Now Mr. Santorum's once skyrocketing political career faces some very real limitations. He is days away from leaving his U.S. Senate seat after Pennsylvania voters handed him an overwhelming 18-point defeat in the Nov. 7 election.

Yet the Republican's associates and longtime observers insist that the public should not discount him. His short-term prospects are considerable: a new book deal, a spot on a television show, a post with a prestigious think tank, lucrative speaking tours, or legal and lobbying jobs.

Mr. Santorum turned down a request from the Post-Gazette for an interview on his plans, but his public comments in the last several weeks point toward a foreign policy focus. He has vowed to continue to voice his controversial views on the war on terror and America's struggle with "Islamic fascism," a theme that dominated his campaign.

After a brief period of silence following the election, the senator quickly re-emerged in the debate about how to respond to spiraling violence in Iraq. This month, Mr. Santorum was one of only two senators to vote against the confirmation of Robert Gates as defense secretary. He also criticized a report released by the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, arguing that its emphasis on negotiations with Syria and Iran is foolhardy.

"Iran has been at war with us since 1979, and is today the principal instigator of systematic murder in Iraq," he wrote recently in the National Journal, citing the year when Iranian students seized hostages at the American embassy in Tehran. "To negotiate a truce with that country at this point would be to negotiate our terms of surrender. This would be seen as an historic defeat for America -- most assuredly, and notably, in the eyes of the radical Islamic world."

Some academics, military strategists and policy makers have criticized such views, arguing that they oversimplify the vast cultural and political differences among America's potential enemies.

But a few Santorum observers say the outgoing senator views himself as being in a similar position as Winston Churchill in the years leading up to World War II. At the time, the British leader had suffered his own political setbacks and was one of only a small number of people calling for a tough stance against the growing threat of Nazi Germany.

"He's a voice crying in the wilderness," said Chuck Queenan, a retired senior counsel at Kirkpatrick & Lockhart and longtime friend of Mr. Santorum. "He can't help but still be concerned about his real conviction that Iran poses a threat to the world."

Even if foreign policy dominates Mr. Santorum's new job opportunities, some say he will soon return to the domestic and social issues that dominated much of his time in office. He has pointed to his role in crafting the Welfare Reform Act of 1996 as a highlight of his Senate career. One of his final legislative achievements was winning approval of a bill that authorizes $945 million in spending on autism research and treatment during the next five years.

But Mr. Santorum's vocal stances on such divisive topics as abortion and homosexuality have earned him the most recognition. Although he is losing a bully pulpit in the Senate, Mr. Santorum has earned the respect of many staunch conservatives, who likely will continue to listen to him. He also will have no shortage of visible and profitable outlets, from television to books to lectures.

Bill Green, a Pittsburgh political consultant, estimates that Mr. Santorum could easily earn about $25,000 for a speaking engagement.

"This guy is going to work," Mr. Green said. "He's not going to be out of a job."

His forceful personality also should make him an obvious candidate for a cable television-style debate program.

"He'll have no shortage of offers to join the punditry class," said Christopher Borick, a political science professor and director of the Public Opinion Research Center at Muhlenberg College in Allentown. "I can't think of many people better suited to engage in that kind of forum."

But Dr. Borick also says that Mr. Santorum's options in the political arena are limited by the size of his electoral loss to Democrat Bob Casey, the biggest defeat of a Senate incumbent in 26 years.

A Republican still could win a statewide election in Pennsylvania, Dr. Borick argues, but many voters prefer moderate candidates in the mold of Mr. Casey, Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, and Sen. Arlen Specter, a Republican.

Paul Kengor, associate professor of political science at Grove City College and author of a book on Ronald Reagan, said that an 18-point defeat would signify the end of any political career -- except Mr. Santorum's. At 48, the outgoing senator is still young enough and strong enough on the national stage to manage a comeback.

"People and trends are cyclical," Dr. Kengor said. "You can't count him out."

Dr. Kengor argues that a new Santorum candidacy is almost a certainty, especially if the Republican's dire warnings about Iran come to fruition.

Or Mr. Santorum could enter a national leadership position through the back door, by being selected for a Cabinet post or as a vice presidential candidate.

"I think he will have a very substantial national constituency," said Mr. English, the Erie Republican. "Certainly, he will be a force to be reckoned with."


Correction/Clarification: (Published Jan. 6, 2007) One of U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum's final legislative achievements was winning approval of a bill that authorizes $945 million in spending on autism research and treatment during the next five years. This story as originally published on Dec. 26, 2006 misstated the amount.

First published on December 26, 2006 at 12:00 am
Jerome L. Sherman can be reached at jsherman@post-gazette.com or 202-488-3479.
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