So much for fears that "Survivor: Cook Islands" would ignite race wars throughout the land.

	A theory for picking winners Former Munhall resident Bob Fricker believes footage from the opening episode of each season of "Survivor" secretly reveals the winner. The key to the mystery is in host Jeff Probst's opening spiel, when the competitors are about to jump off the boat/plane into the water and head for the island. "He starts it with the thing about '39 days ...' and ends with 'and only one survivor,' " says Mr. Fricker, 57, now of Rochester, N.Y. "It's usually whoever is in the frame when they say that [and only one survivor/and only one will win a million dollars]." He first came up with the theory in Season 1, "Survivor: Borneo." "I've had great success predicting the winners," says Mr. Fricker, who likes the diversity of the contestants this season. "For instance, I knew Vecepia [Towery] was going to win [Season Four, "Survivor Marquesas"] when no one else believed it." This season -- "Survivor: Cook Islands" -- he believes Ozzy will be in the final four and Parvati will win. For the record, he registered his theory and predicted winner with the Post-Gazette on Nov. 2. In a week and a half we'll know whether he's right. The season wraps up Dec. 17.

No Rodney King-verdict mayhem has erupted.

Not even so much as a "West Side Story" dancing rumble.

The apprehension, outrage and moral indignation expressed when word spread that "Survivor: Cook Islands" initially would divide competitors into four teams by race may have been a bit premature and overblown.

The Asian-American, Caucasian, Latino and African-American tribes remained separate for only the first two episodes, then merged into two mixed-race tribes, Aitu and Raro, with a total of 18 members.

Now, some 11 episodes into the season -- which is drawing an average 15.6 million viewers per week according to Nielsen Media Research -- there is only one tribe, Aitutonga, with only seven members, and the four minority members are in the majority, including Becky Lee, a graduate of Thomas Jefferson High School in Jefferson Hills and the University of Pittsburgh School of Law.

Many viewers believe that race hasn't played a major role this season, but that's not to say it hasn't played some role.

Long before Candice's ouster and long smooch goodbye to tribemate/sweetheart Adam on last week's show, she set her eventual demise in motion with the infamous mutiny.

Before the big merge into one tribe two weeks ago, was Candice and Jonathan's decision to switch from the Aitu to Raro tribe race-based or merely a way to rejoin original Caucasian team members and avoid being in the minority on Aitu?

Jonathan and Candice's mutiny realigned them with their old Caucasian tribe members, put them in the majority on Raro and resulted in their surviving two more Tribal Councils, says Andrew Peters, 37, of Crafton, who's been a "Survivor" fan since the first season in 2000.

Three solid, minority members of the Raro tribe -- Brad, Rebecca and Jenny -- were systematically voted off for "reasons that are a bit suspect," says Mr. Peters, after Caucasians Jonathan, Candice, Parvati and Adam formed a renewed alliance on Raro.

Brad was voted off because he was considered "untrustworthy" and Rebecca was voted off because she was considered "lazy," he says.

"Yet unbelievably, Jonathan survived ... and is viewed as even more 'untrustworthy' than Brad; and Candice could [have been] viewed as even more 'lazy' than Rebecca," he says. "These actions make me believe that some old 'race' alliances [were] stronger than ever."

Did the then-four remaining Aitu tribe members -- Yul, Becky, Sundra and Ozzy -- minorities all, repeatedly banish Candice to Exile Island because she was white, or because she had betrayed and abandoned them?

"The smaller tribe [was] driven by revenge on the two members who deserted them," says Kailey Hughes, 14, of McCandless, who watches the show each week with her siblings and parents.

"Making alliances with people regardless of race is important if you can get a majority to stick with a vote, no matter what," says Kailey's dad, Matt Hughes, 40, of McCandless. "Then, you can pick people off one by one."

Personality, performance and loyalty have guided game play so far.

"If you are too strong a personality, you tend to rub people the wrong way, and if you are too weak a personality, people view you as lazy or cold, or without team [unity]," says Deborah Verrilla, 41, of Verona. "You have to find that happy medium immediately, and you have to align right away."

Strategy and loyalty to the game plan, if not completely to other players, figure more prominently than performance and personality now that the seven Aitutonga players are competing against each other and not another team.

Strategy trumps race alliances in this game every time, Mr. Hughes says.

That may explain why Jonathan, that crafty fisherman and abrasive writer-producer with the Alan Alda voice, has remained alive in the game even though he has double-crossed everyone.

He first abandoned Aitu for Raro, then betrayed Raro for Aitu by not voting with the Parvati-Adam-Candice alliance to oust Yul. This so incensed his original tribe members last week that they tried to vote him off.

They were unsuccessful, however, because Jonathan again is aligned with the powerful former Aitu faction of Aitutonga, which includes Yul and Becky, who are Korean-Americans, Sundra, who is African-American and Ozzy, who is Hispanic-American.

Even minority members of the Aitu power bloc -- which with unprecedented cruelty last week refused to share food with Parvati, Adam and Candice -- weren't all that thrilled with Jonathan's obnoxious enjoyment of a hot dog, fries, beer and pepperoni pizza during last week's food auction Reward Challenge. They, too, considered voting him off last week but decided to stick with their game plan and vote off Candice.

"Jonathan, he's kind of a poor man's Rob [Mariano]," says Christopher J. Wright, author of "Tribal Warfare: Survivor and the Political Unconscious of Reality Television."

"Boston Rob" Mariano -- a Season Four contestant and Season Eight runner-up who proposed to and later married that season's winner, Beaver County's Amber Brkich -- was skilled at reading shifting alliances and flipped back and forth frequently.

"They couldn't hold it against him -- until the end," Mr. Wright says. "But people are holding it against Jonathan and maybe [the flipping] will keep him alive for a while, but there's no way he's going to win."

Mr. Peters doesn't believe Jonathan deserved to survive another week, but understands why he did.

"He's a despicable guy. Keep him around and he'd be an easy one to go up against in the final two," he says. (Incidentally, "Survivor" producer Mark Burnett has told TV Guide that for the first time, the show will have a final three instead of a final two, and the number of jurors has risen from seven to nine.)

Has the loyalty some have shown their original tribe members been borne out of racial/ethnic ties or simply out of primacy -- the first bonds formed in their first tribes?

"People bond with those who you put them with, meaning the players want and will try to stay loyal to their original tribe, showing they are trustworthy," says Bridgett Kilmer, 28, of Hempfield. "People in general don't take the chance to get to know others when not placed with them. Is it because their original tribe is also the same race as them? Maybe."

John Stolec, 31, of Center Township believes Yul and Becky are close because they were on an original tribe together and were able to bond from day one, not because they're both Korean-Americans.

"Ozzy [became] an integral part of the Aitu tribe, and he was all alone as a member of the original Hispanic-American tribe," he says.

There's no way to know for sure whether race or simply original tribe ties have bound some players together more, Mr. Wright said.

"They obviously haven't shown people saying 'Yay for the white people' or 'Yay for the Hispanics,' " he said.

And there may be only one way to find out.

"The real test is taking the same four races and splitting them up in to four tribes -- one from each race on a tribe," Ms. Kilmer says. "Then, see who comes together in the end. The original tribes or by ethnic line. Maybe next season."

For more information visit www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor13.

Program note: KDKA will broadcast the Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns game tomorrow at 8 p.m. "Survivor: Cook Islands" will air in its regular time period on WPCW.