LOCKPORT, N.Y. -- U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds steps up to the podium, grips the sides of it with both hands, and leans into the microphone.

His audience is a small group -- less than a few dozen supporters and senior citizens -- huddled under a white tent on a blustery day outside Buffalo, the folding chairs they're sitting on sinking slightly into the soft, moist grass.

Mr. Reynolds raises his voice to be heard above the wind that is buffeting the tent. He makes a joke about someone needing a hot cup of coffee, then launches into remarks of praise and thanks for those who made this event -- the delivery of a $6 million grant for senior housing -- possible.

Tom Reynolds is home, doing what he does best: politicking with the people and bringing home federal dollars. He's 400 miles from Washington, D.C., and a thousand miles from Mark Foley and the congressional page controversy that has threatened his re-election.

This race wasn't even supposed to be close. But this is an election where multi-term, secure incumbents across the nation have found themselves battling for their political lives.

Mr. Reynolds, 56, a four-term congressman from western New York, is the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, a powerful post he earned by knowing how to play the game.

A former insurance and real estate broker, he worked his way up through local politics as an Erie County legislator and assemblyman. The people he represents in the 26th District -- a district carved specifically for him after the 2000 census -- are rock-ribbed conservatives living in the suburbs between Buffalo and Rochester.

"Nobody was lining up to run against Reynolds because the district is so heavily Republican," said Michael Haselswerdt, a political science professor at Canisius College in Buffalo for more than 30 years.

Mr. Reynolds' opponent, John R. "Jack" Davis, 73, is the same man he beat with 56 percent of the vote in the 2004 election, a millionaire businessman who angrily switched to the Democratic Party in 2003 after being snubbed by Vice President Dick Cheney at a $2,000-a-plate dinner in Buffalo.

Mr. Davis, who fiercely opposes most free-trade agreements, is running the campaign of an outsider, a champion of limited government and free enterprise. A furnace parts manufacturer, he has put $2 million of his own money into the race.

"What makes Davis a good candidate is he's got a big bankroll," Mr. Haselswerdt said.

Mr. Reynolds, likewise, is spending lots of money on the race, making it the most expensive House race in New York history. Entering the last week of the campaign, the two candidates have spent nearly $7 million. The Republican Party is investing because it's a seat that they're desperate to keep. The Democrats are chasing it because they smell blood.

From all accounts, Mr. Reynolds was cruising toward re-election and, as head of the GOP's congressional committee, shepherding other candidates through their races. Then "the Foley thing" erupted.

U.S. Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., abruptly resigned Sept. 29 after it was learned that he had sent lurid Internet messages to young men who had worked as congressional pages. Mr. Reynolds, in his capacity as one of the House leaders, had been informed of "overly friendly" e-mails from Mr. Foley in the spring.

What happened next is still the subject of investigation and consternation.

Mr. Reynolds said he informed House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., about the e-mails, but Mr. Hastert said he could not recall any such conversation. Then, some reports have said, Mr. Reynolds urged Mr. Foley to run for re-election, a claim that Mr. Reynolds has not publicly addressed.

When word of Mr. Foley's actions erupted, Mr. Reynolds quickly held a news conference -- where he surrounded himself with supporters and their children -- then produced a television ad in which he apologized to voters for not doing more about Mr. Foley.

"I don't know if it was ever tested, but I can just tell you that it was a horrible ad," Mr. Haselwerdt said. "And the more he ran it, I think, the worse it got for him."

Three weeks ago, Mr. Reynolds testified for three hours before the House Ethics Committee. He went into the session with his poll numbers back home plummeting.

But the political clouds weren't the only ones over western New York. On the night of Oct. 12, a freak snowstorm barreled into Buffalo, dumping nearly 2 feet of heavy, wet snow.

"It came down like concrete," said Peter Cutler, director of communications for the office of Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown.

Within hours, 200,000 people in Erie County were without electricity. Mr. Cutler accompanied the mayor and the county executive as they drove through neighborhoods where canopies of tree limbs were broken off under the weight of the snow and littering the streets. Power lines that had snapped from their poles were sparking and dancing in their path. Fifteen deaths were attributed to the storm.

"We have 200,000 trees in the city and 90 percent of the mature trees were damaged," Mr. Cutler said. "We expect to lose 20,000 trees, 12,000 of them in the park system."

Utility crews from Maine and Massachusetts came to the rescue. Private contractors arrived from Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi to help clean up the 1.2 million cubic yards of debris that residents piled in towering curbside pyramids in the first days after the storm.

"In the end, we expect to see 2 million cubic yards of debris," Mr. Cutler said.

For Mr. Reynolds' political hopes, however, it was the perfect storm.

As soon as he realized how bad it was, he was working the phones. One of the first calls he made was to Gov. George Pataki, whom he had known from their days in the New York State Assembly.

"I called him at his house," Mr. Reynolds said. "I said, 'I need you to activate the state Emergency Management Office. We need to move fast, because this is a very serious situation.' "

Worried residents who tuned in their televisions saw Mr. Reynolds in action. When he wasn't front-and-center, he was still there in the picture, standing just to the side of whoever was at the microphone detailing what was being done. He stood shoulder-to-shoulder with local authorities, public works employees, police and rescue officials, National Guard commanders and Red Cross volunteers.

And he quickly delivered millions of federal dollars in emergency grants and low-interest loans to help with the recovery.

"What I look to do is my job," Mr. Reynolds said. "Some have nicknamed me 'Mr. Clout.' "

"What he needed to have happened was what happened," said Mr. Haselswerdt. "It changed the subject [from the Foley scandal]. And he came across very effectively. He was all of a sudden out there in front, using his assets as a leader in the Republican Party, calling in favors.

"People saw him in a light that didn't have anything to do with scandal. And that's what he needed."

Mr. Reynolds is back at work, ready for the homestretch into next week's election, confident that he has regained his footing.

"I believe that I will prevail on Election Day," he said, an optimistic outlook that he credits to his three-step mantra: Work locally, get your message out, get the voters out.

"It's all coming together. And, quite frankly, [it is] across the country. They're close races. The question is, can my party turn out a better vote than the Democrats. If we do, we hold the House.

"And that goes for Pennsylvania," he said. "Pittsburgh, that race has tightened up with Melissa Hart [R-Bradford Woods] a little bit. But she's got a good connection with the people.

"The real battle for me is Don Sherwood [R-Wyoming County, who has been embroiled in a sex scandal]. That's kind of a challenge. That is [between him] and the voters. We'll see what happens."

In the end, he said, voters will remember the benefit of keeping the Republican incumbents, men and women in Washington who accomplish things for the folks back home. It's what sets him apart from his opponent, he said.

"He doesn't believe in federal investment," Mr. Reynolds said. "I have brought a lot of federal money into my district."

That's the upside of having someone who can play the game in Washington.

Just this week, for example, Mr. Reynolds brought the $6 million to Lockport for senior housing. He delivered $750,000 to a hospital in Dansville, and announced that a local tool company that had planned to move work to China would, instead, remain in the town of Medina.

The headline in The Buffalo News this week, however, was about one of Mr. Reynolds' aides, who has been criticized for excessive taxpayer-funded travel expenses.

It is this dichotomy that last Saturday prompted the newspaper to withhold its endorsement from either man in the race.

"Both candidates are guilty of tunnel vision," the editorial said. "The incumbent has a practical edge in this race, and the challenger has a moral one. This has been a critically impaired campaign, and the choice for most voters will be highly individual and anything but easy."