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Stats Geek: It's time Pirates get some direction
Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Hello again and welcome to America's slowest-rising game show, "Who's More Delusional?"

Today's question: Who's more delusional, the Pirates' fan who thinks the team has turned a corner despite losing 95 games again, or the fan who sees no progress in a team whose young pitchers led them to a 37-35 record after the All-Star break?

We'll depart from tradition and have only one contestant, allowing the Stats Geek to have another argument with himself.

Now, Mr. Geek, you entered the season with few illusions about the sorry state of the ballclub, but you wavered around Memorial Day, predicting the Pirates would win more than they lost the rest of the way. How did that work out?

Badly. The Pirates went 51-61 after May 28. My only consolation is that was par for the National League's Comedy Central Division, where only the Houston Astros at 56-55 won more than they lost over the final four months.

In retrospect, I was several weeks premature in seeing a young rotation come around. I also didn't consider how overmatched the Pirates would be against the American League. And I hadn't counted on Jose Castillo, one of baseball's best second basemen in the early going, finishing among the worst. Castillo peaked in mid-June, then hit .221 with a .263 on-base average and .308 slugging average after June 15, grounding into 15 double plays. Horrific.

Not that the rest of the lineup shined, mind you. Apart from Jason Bay, Freddy "Freddy!" Sanchez and Ron Paulino, nobody hit better than league average at his position. That's based on OPS (on-base plus slugging averages). The Pirates finished last in OPS, hence last in runs scored.

So how can anyone think this team turned a corner? Comparisons to the 1987 Pirates, a team that had a truly strong second half with the core of its 1990-92 division championship teams in place, are off base. These 2006 Pirates were outscored, 323-280, in the second half, and outhomered, 74-47. They've become like your favorite oldies station: All singles all the time.

The bright side is that the Comedy Central is nothing like the NL East of old, and Pirates pitching is young and deep. While the rotation had no breakout stars, they all held their own.

Don't ignore that the Pirates finally did what ardent fans have asked for 14 years. They let the kids play, allowing them to grow on the job. Only nine pitchers in the National League with at least 30 starts were under the age of 25, and three were Pirates.

Counting relievers, 58 percent of Pirates innings were thrown by pitchers 25 or younger. That's more than twice the work the average team has given to such youth since 1990, according to stats guru Bill James.

Throwing out Oliver Perez, as the Pirates did, the nine young pitchers, including September call-ups, combined for a 4.49 earned run average. That is league average. After the break, only the San Diego Padres and Astros had a lower staff ERA than the Pirates' 4.01.

Old man Salomon Torres, with a 1.22 ERA in 37 innings after the break, helped there. But the team cut its ERA nearly a full run compared with the first 90 games, mostly by giving fewer starts to reclamation projects.

Perez, Kip Wells, Victor Santos and Shawn Chacon combined for a record of 10-27 and an ERA of 5.87 in their 50 starts, with the team going 17-33. We can argue who was harder to watch, Chacon or Santos, but neither is a good answer for 2007. Nor is banking on Shane Youman. The team needs another reliable starter.

Yet the Pirates never seem to make the right move. General manager Dave Littlefield spread his millions last winter among has-beens, and Littlefield hasn't had a strong offseason since 2002-03, when he signed Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton, Matt Stairs and Jeff Suppan for a combined $3.4 million.

A left-handed slugger and a good starting pitcher -- can they be found? We'll find out by spring training whether the Pirates have stopped acting like me on my honeymoon.

I must explain. I took my wife to Ireland after our wedding, and we drove around without much of a plan. When we got to Donegal, I found a room above Schooner's Pub, which I thought was grand.

That's when she gave me The Look, and I realized I'd just rented a place that looked as if it was on Oliver Cromwell's To Burn List. It struck me that I had grown up. I had money. I had to stop spending like a hitchhiking student.

The Pirates, too, have wandered without direction, trying to get by on the cheap with 14 losing seasons in a row while the National League pennant has been passed from team to team like a joint at a Grateful Dead concert. It's time the organization grows up. With a talented young rotation, a strong bullpen and perhaps three of the four hitters you want at the top of a lineup, this club could target its money and get somewhere.

Delusions of mediocrity? We shall see.

First published on October 3, 2006 at 12:00 am
Brian O'Neill can be reached at boneill@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1947.