HARRISBURG -- A serious problem has developed in the effort to license a slots casino at The Meadows racetrack, as forecasts of gambling revenue made by the track owner differ significantly from the estimates made by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board staff.

Las Vegas-based Millennium Gaming Inc. told the board at a hearing yesterday that it conservatively expects to get anywhere from $215 million to $296 million a year from 1,800 slot machines at a temporary casino at The Meadows that could open as early as April.

A gaming board task force that examined Millennium's financial suitability to run the casino had a much lower revenue estimate, however -- anywhere from $100 million to $123 million a year.

Millennium co-owner Bill Paulos said he couldn't make money if revenue were as low as $100 million, because he, like all casino owners, has to pay a $50 million license fee to the state; a total tax burden for the state, host county and host town of 54 percent; labor costs; debt on loans; and other operating costs.

But Mr. Paulos said he has hired reliable financial consultants -- Christiansen Capital Advisors, Innovation Group, Bank of America and Merrill Lynch Capital Markets -- and he's certain that The Meadows casino would produce a minimum of $215 million a year in "gross gaming revenue," the amount remaining for the casino owner after slots winners have gotten their money.

"We are very committed to the Western Pennsylvania market," he told the gaming board. "We think Washington County is ripe for this major development and we are committed to being there."

He said that if the gaming board approves a slots license for The Meadows on Sept. 27, he would begin immediately to build the $40 million temporary casino adjacent to the current clubhouse.

He also would begin this fall to tear down the clubhouse and start next year on building a $135 million permanent casino on that site, a 14-month construction timetable.

But Tad Decker, gaming board chairman, said the large gap between projected revenues from Mr. Paulos and from the board staff poses a serious issue in the board's deliberation over a license.

He said talks will be held over the next two weeks with Millennium officials in hopes of reaching an agreed-upon figure on how much revenue the casino will produce.

Referring to the $100 million difference between the two estimates, Mr. Decker said, "Look at the spread -- it's huge. We have to go back and study this. Somebody has to prove that it's likely that [this casino] will be financially viable. We are looking for some comfort that this project will work."

The board has said it could approve slots licenses for up to six racetrack/casinos on Sept. 27.

Asked what the board might do with The Meadows, he said: "We have three choices. We could approve, deny or defer."

The latter option would keep The Meadows alive in its quest for a slots license but would almost certainly delay the opening of the casino beyond next spring.

The large difference in projected revenues is due to different assumptions the two sides have made as to how many gamblers will visit the casino each year, how far they will travel, how many visits each will make per year, how much each will wager on slots and how much The Meadows will be affected by competing casinos, including the two existing ones in West Virginia, a new casino to be built in Pittsburgh and another racetrack/casino to be built in either Lawrence or Beaver County in a few years.

Millennium officials projected gamblers who live fairly close to The Meadows -- within 25 miles or so -- would make about eight to 12 visits a year, while the gaming board staff projected only six per year.

Millennium officials said they expect their casino to be up and running at least a year before the new non-racetrack casino coming to Pittsburgh will be open for business, thus giving The Meadows "brand loyalty" for many gamblers.

Millennium officials also think they can snare a higher percentage of gamblers who now frequent the Wheeling and Mountaineer tracks.

Millennium officials also disputed the gaming board estimate of adults who live within 50 miles of The Meadows. Millennium said the figure was 2.1 million while the board staff put it at 1.6 million.

The large gap in projected gaming revenues was the only sticking point in The Meadows' application for a slots license. Board staff members said background investigations into the character and operational experience of casino officials turned up no problems.

Steve Kaplan, a principal in Oak Tree Capital Management, Millennium's partner in buying The Meadows, said he thinks gamblers will prefer the Washington County track because it's easier to get to, without fighting Downtown Pittsburgh traffic.

"It's a great site," just off Interstate 79 and Route 19, he said.

Millennium, founded 10 years ago by Mr. Paulos and his partner, Bill Wortman, owns three casinos in Las Vegas. Millennium/Oak Tree Capital bought The Meadows from Magna Entertainment Corp. for $200 million in July.

To finance the track/casino project, the new Meadows owners plan to borrow $275 million from a consortium of Bank of America and Merrill Lynch Capital. Oak Tree Capital is also putting up $75 million.

The cash flow to be generated by the casino is crucial to everything, however.

"If the [gaming board staff's] numbers are even close to being correct, there is no viable project at The Meadows," said Mr. Kaplan. "But those numbers are so low -- we don't believe they're even close" to being correct.