Brian O' Neill: Well, fans, all the eyes of the baseball world will be on the Cubs-Pirates tilt tonight in Wrigley as these two storied franchises battle for bragging rights to fifth place. Remember, the Pirates will have to take the series, not just win tonight, to stay out of last. The tension is palpable.
Freddy_Krueger: Brian: Would it be worse for the Pirates to lose 100 or finish in last? i.e. if they finish ahead of the Cubs, but still lose 100 is that a good development?
Brian O' Neill: Well, the record doesn't mean much either way beyond pride. I guess you could argue that finishing last would get the team a higher draft pick. Here are the Comedy Central's standings since the All-Star break, for what they're worth. Pirates 24-23; Cards 25-24; Astros 24-25; Reds 23-26; Cubs 21-28; Brewers 19-29; That's some bad baseball.
fish: Any word on when J. Wilson will be recovered?
Brian O' Neill: He's still day to day with this freak malady.
Freddy_Krueger: If you saw Bob Nutting on the street, what would you say to him?
Brian O' Neill: Living the dream, eh, Bob?
Brian O' Neill: Hey, since everyone seems to think it's football season, I might as well kill time with weird stuff. Do you know the Pirates record in one-run games now? 20-27, and 11-2 since the break, I believe. Maybe 12-2. This may be the greatest turnaround since someone tapped Marilyn Monroe on the shoulder in "Some Like it Hot."
fish: When a team finishes it's season with a respectable run, i.e. .500 after the break, does it usually translate into respectability the following season?
Brian O' Neill: That's a very good question and I'll try to fake an answer. Seriously, I don't have the data on that. Off the top of my head, I'd say we need more information. The Pirates had a winning record in their last 100 or so games in 2003 but that didn't translate because much of that came from Reggie Sanders, Matt Stairs and other players who left. I'd suggest the better record of this group is more likely to translate next year because the key players are sticking around. But they can't count on continuing all these one-run games. They have to find power and another pitcher, as I said in my column today.
Freddy_Krueger: Does Jason Bay still play for the Pirates?
Brian O' Neill: Yes, and he's still leading the team in runs and RBIs. He just does his work early in the game and nobody remembers that by the end. He drove in a run and scored a run in yet another game that the Pirates won by one run yesterday.
Brian O' Neill: Stat in a Minute: The Pirates team ERA since the break is 4.21, tied with the Padres for fourth best in the league. I don't have the breakdown, but I'd guess a lot of the credit there goes to the bullpen.
fish: I bought 2 tickets to 8 games this year and I have to drive 360 miles round trip to get there and back. While I love going to the ball games, I am tired of watching meaningless baseball in July and beyond...any chance of this team at least being competitive?
Brian O' Neill: Yes, there's a very good chance if the right moves are made this winter. I wrote about this today. The division is weak and the Pirates have a number of assets in place, but they need a left-handed power hitter and another solid starting pitcher. They have the money to spend there, certainly, but whether they spend it, or spend it wisely, are other issues.
TimMurray: The one-run game record is surprising. In the course of your statistical research, are there stats about this team that have really surprised you? Could you please cite?
Brian O' Neill: I'm downright shocked about the one-run turnaround, but shouldn't be. Baseball history has shown that good teams and bad almost always have a record in one-run games closer to .500 than their overall record, and the Pirates are now there. Sanchez, a player I've long liked, has exceeded my expectations. Not only is he leading the league in hitting, he could be the first Pirate in 70 years or so to hit 50 doubles, and the first one not named Waner.
Freddy_Krueger: If you could assume the role of Dave Littlefield, who would you sign or attempt to trade for this offseason (within reason) and why?
Brian O' Neill: My idle thought of the week is trading Jack Wilson to Toronto for left-handed first baseman Lyle Overbay. Toronto has needed a good shortstop for a long time, and it could move Troy Glaus over to first base. Wilson's contract wouldn't be a big deal there. Overbay, who has about 20 home runs with a good batting average, would be a great fit for PNC Park, too. Sanchez could move to shortstop and Bautista to third base, Nady to RF. Other players, maybe a relief pitcher, might have to be included, but that trade makes some sense to me.
TimMurray: What position would be the best spot to put the left-handed power hitter?
Brian O' Neill: The Pirates have some flexibility with Nady and Bautista and others, so he could go almost anywhere. You're most likely to find one at first base or at a corner outfield position, though. By the way, Overbay's line is 19 home runs, 82 RBI, .310 average, .368 on-base average and .511 slugging. That would make him pretty much an average 1b in the NL, but PNC's friendly confines could bump the numbers up some. He'll be 30 next year.
fish: do you think the pirates will trade either Jack Wilson and/or Jose Castillo this off-season?
Brian O' Neill: Yes, I do. I think one or the other will be traded, but not both. That's just my gut. I have no special information.
Brian O' Neill: One thing I should mention about my Wilson to Toronto fantasy. It could hurt the defense, at least in the short term. Sanchez is a terrific third baseman, Wilson is above average at short and Nady has been a revelation at first base. Replacing them all may have effects we don't realize on this ground-ball pitching staff, however capable their replacements might be. Defensive stats are very slippery things.
Freddy_Krueger: Favorite park to watch a game (besides PNC)?
Brian O' Neill: I like Wrigley Field. I also like Yankee Stadium, as much as I hate the Yankees. It's a baseball cathedral. Everyone should see it at least once before it goes.
fish: What do you think will be the biggest change we will see with the Bucs come next year?
Brian O' Neill: I hope it's the signing of Aramis Ramirez and Jason Schmidt, but I'm not holding my breath. I'll be happy if they address the problem of left-handed power and a fifth starter.
TimMurray: With the Steelers and high school football going strong, I sense a palpable drop-off in interest about the Pirates. The Pirates have squandered the chance to capitalize on the All-Star Game season ticket boost and likely will lose a lot absent something dramatic (I may be completely wrong). If that premise is correct, to stanch the bleeding would you expect to see them do something "big" sooner in the off-season, rather than later? And what could that possibly be?
Brian O' Neill: I don't see them doing anything just to make a splash. The Steelers own this town, and that won't change, even a little, until the team starts winning.
piratefan: I have been hearing that the pirates are FINALLY going to build a statue of Paul Waner. What have you heard about this, and about statues and retired numbers of other deserving past Pirate hall-of-famers?
Brian O' Neill: I have heard nothing about this. It would surprise me if they build a statue to Waner, a mostly forgotten but terrific player. What have you heard?
fish: I have seen games in 19 different major league stadiums and I think PNC is the best. Even though I am a bit biased.
Brian O' Neill: I don't disagree. I was asked for my favorites besides PNC. Wrigley is the only one close for me.
TimMurray: Favorite place at PNC to watch a game?
Brian O' Neill: Behind the plate, but there really isn't a bad seat in the house. The best buy is probably the 16 dollar seats around section 315 or so. Great view of the skyline and the game.
fish: I'll tell you who they should honor with a statue. The long suffering but still loyal fans. It could be a guy eating nachos wearing a Stargell jersey with a far away stare in his eyes trying to explain to his kid why he shouldn't root for the damned Yankees!
Brian O' Neill: I don't like it. I love it.
Brian O' Neill: A Paul Waner story from the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, lifted from Dick Bartell's autobiography: "Lloyd didn't drink much when he was playing but Paul was another story. There were plenty of times he showed up at the ball park and he wasn't sober. In the dugout we had an ice chest. He'd stick a pint of whisky in there and take a swig between innings before he'd go up to bat.'' And hit 50 or more doubles in three different seasons.
TimMurray: Most underrated current Pirate?
Brian O' Neill: I might say Solomon Torres. This staff would be in big trouble without him. I'd say Matt Capps, but fans seem to have noticed his work more. Grabow and Gonzo also have had great years that might not have gotten the attention they deserve. And I also think Bautista has rather quietly had a pretty good year for his first year playing full time.
fish: Maybe the Pirates should start keeping whiskey in the dugout ?
Brian O' Neill: An old clubhouse guy once told me that Roberto Clemente would sometimes have a sip of wine for his aches and pains. Times change, I guess.
fish: Here's a question from left field. Do the players pay for their own uniforms or are they supplied by the team?
Brian O' Neill: Supplied by the team
Brian O' Neill: Another Waner story from the same book. In 1940, when Frankie Frisch was managing the Pirates and Waner was near the end of his career, Frisch found a whisky bottle in the Pirates clubhouse. "Waner,'' yelled Frisch, holding up the bottle. "Is this yours?" ... "Well, it can't be mine,'' Waner replied. "If it was mine, it would be empty.''
Freddy_Krueger: Is your uniform supplied by you, or the Post-Gazette?
Brian O' Neill: My ensemble is my own creation and, let me tell you, clothes like mine just don't come together that often.
bg: Do you miss bullpen carts?
Brian O' Neill: No, but the Arab oil sheiks do.
fish: I am surprised then that the "Nuttin's" don't have the team out there in burlap sacks. It would probably increase the profit margin on a replica jersey to somewhere around 800% up from the current 400%.
Brian O' Neill: Let's hope they're not reading this.
Brian O' Neill: Last Paul Waner post: When he set the Pirates record for doubles with 62 in 1932, it would be 37 years before another Pirate led the league in doubles. Matty Alou hit 41in 1969. If Sanchez leads the league, it will be only 14 years since Andy Van Slyke hit 45 in 1992.
Brian O' Neill: I see by the clock on the wall that we're out of time. You've been a great group. Tell 'em what they've won, Don Pardo.
Dan Gigler: They've won a fabulous invitation to the next Stats Geek chat in 2 weeks ... the season wrap up edition!