Pirates Q&A with Dejan Kovacevic

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Q: In regards to acquiring a lefty power bat, and I know chances are extremely slim, but what do you think about trading for Adam Dunn this winter? I seem to remember his name being out there a few times over the last few years, so this winter may be no different. He's still fairly young, fills a major hole, would fit in the Pirates' budget, and -- most important -- Reds GM Wayne Krivsky clearly has no problem making trades.

Chris Scott of Bethel Park

KOVACEVIC: Dunn will be 27 next season, but he will be due $10.5 million next season and $13 million the year after that. As we will get into further down this week, Chris, that money can be far better invested for a team that is at the Pirates' stage of maturation.

Sounds to me like Dave Littlefield's intention here is to find himself a left-handed version of Ryan Shealy, someone younger with some pop and plenty of time under the team's control. There are not many of those guys out there, of course, and they tend to come with a higher price than what Kansas City paid for Shealy. But the Pirates do have more young starting pitching than most, and theirs is the commodity most coveted in the market.

Would it hurt the Pirates to give up one of those young starters for an impact bat? Sure. They hardly are at an excess in that regard. But you have to give to get and all that.

Would it hurt to give up one of their infielders? Sure. But simple math tells you they have one more player than they do places.

Q: Dejan, common sense would dictate that, beginning with the day the dimensions for PNC Park were finalized, the Pirates would have their scouts beating the bushes for left-handed power hitters. Now, I don't follow the minors as much as some folks do, but I don't know of any lefty power hitters that have come up through the system. Are there any at the lower levels?

Dick Schomburg of Spokane, Wash.

KOVACEVIC: There are none at any levels, Dick, from Indianapolis all the way down to rookie ball. Not one. Not even a prayer guy.

In fact, the dearth of power hitting is a general one. Right-handed Adam Boeve had a hot start at Indianapolis and has done little since then, especially in terms of power. Neil Walker in Altoona has some power potential, and he is a switch-hitter, but you will be hard-pressed to find a talent evaluator who projects him as being a true power type in the majors. Andrew McCutchen might be more of an unknown in this regard. His stature and most traits might have some thinking leadoff, others thinking Marquis Grissom, maybe Ron Gant. He, too, is right-handed. Steve Pearce, another righty, is promising at Lynchburg, with 22 doubles and 12 home runs in 80 games at Lynchburg. He also has drawn a decent total of 31 walks, a sign, perhaps, that he has an eye to accompany the swing.

As far as guys who already have made it and are likely to get another chance, there obviously is Brad Eldred. But he has much to prove (and is not left-handed). Ryan Doumit is a switch-hitter, but his stroke is more one that brings doubles than any significant number of home runs, though that cannot be ruled out with his strength.

No matter how you break it down, the Pirates' drafting -- as well as the lack of a real presence in Latin America before 2003 -- very obviously has come up short in this critical area.

Q: Dejan, with the Bucs playing .500 ball since the break with essentially all the young players we fans have been asking for, I took a look at the stats of some of the players moved by Dave Littlefield at the deadline this year. Not commenting either way, but the short-term view is that we fans, having suffered for all these losing seasons, might not give enough latitude to the GM.

Consider that Oliver Perez is 0-2, 9.49 in 12.1 innings. Kip Wells is 1-1, 5.63 in 8.0 innings and on the DL. Craig Wilson is being himself with the Yanks. And, unrelated to this year, Chris Shelton is back in the minors.

Not that I think the GM can't be criticized, but these moves might not turn out to be as bad as first thought by many depending on, in my opinion, the play of Nady principally.

Your thoughts?

Kevin Van Asdalan of Banksville, Pittsburgh

KOVACEVIC: Honestly, Kevin, I find that very little comes of analyzing trades of rental players for minor-league relievers. Far more important, to my mind, is the process that led to the Pirates -- once again -- being in the position to make such deals.

Why acquire those players to begin with? Why run even the marginal risk that they might block a legitimate, young player, even for a month as happened with Joe Randa and Freddy Sanchez? Why put them on the field at all when more evaluation can be occurring with Nate McLouth, Jose Bautista and others?

If they can come in for a real need that advances real development -- say, a true horse of a starter who can spell the rotation and bullpen -- then fine. But stopgaps for the simple sake of filling perceived holes, that shows a lack of direction and a lack of conviction in the players at the upper levels of the system.

Look at the gamble Florida took. Look at the remarkable youth of the players they sprinkled all across their diamond with no parachute. Who died in the process? Be quite sure that the overwhelming majority of that roster will be better in 2007 than it has been in 2006.

Can the same be said for Bautista?

Q: Dejan: During the first half of the season, Jim Tracy has taken a lot of flak on numerous fronts, including the lack of development of the Pirates' younger players and an unwillingness to accept blame for mistakes and the generally poor play of his team. However, since the All-Star break, the Bucs have been playing pretty good ball. If the team can finish over .500 in games played after the All-Star break, this would be a big accomplishment.

The question I have: Do you think the team's improved play is a result of Tracy's coaching skills or just a matter of the player's performing well despite Tracy's coaching?

Darren Goldberger of Jersey City, N.J.

KOVACEVIC: First, Darren, I can attest that there has been much, much less of the self-congratulatory stuff. Whether it is deliberately suppressed or whether Tracy has had some shift in thinking, he has done little to no crediting the coaching staff when things go well while blaming the players when things go poorly.

Q: In your online chat Monday, you mentioned that the Pirates would not want to see Freddy Sanchez at shortstop regularly. What's the reason for that? Is that more due to a lack of faith in Jose Bautista? Sanchez is more than capable defensively.

Terry Brown of Monroeville

KOVACEVIC: Yes, he is. And there is no small amount of evidence, based on the time Sanchez has seen at shortstop, that he would do just fine there.

The Pirates' concern with Sanchez, in this matter and others, is one of durability. They do not see him as an everyday player at that position because of their view that he might not hold up to the extra rigors involved.

It has nothing to do with Bautista.

Q: I read where the Bucs are concerned about their young pitchers getting overextended. Did you know that in 1885, a 23-year-old righty started 70 games, threw 68 complete games and went 53-16, 1.85 for the Cubs, and probably got a few wins off those Pittsburg Alleghenies. All that was before performance enhancers like steroids and Primanti Brothers n 'at. Why are pitchers of today so soft, and is there a school of thought that the five-man rotation and this coddling might be causing injuries?

Kevin A. Gray of Indianapolis

KOVACEVIC: Those poor Alleghenies get thrust into way too many conversations these days.

First off, Kevin, comparing baseball from that era to today works on almost no levels. But you probably already know that, I understand.

Second, there are many, many schools of thought on handling pitchers, including the one that sees the modern programs as coddling. But that group is diminishing in size as more studies emerge showing patterns of injuries as they relate to innings pitched. In the Pirates' case, they are among the most cautious in the business from the ground up in terms of limiting innings per season and even pitches per inning through the system.

I find this approach difficult to dispute. The pitchers get built up gradually to a certain threshold, then are expected to remain there consistently. I asked Jim Colborn the other day about what he would like to see from this current group over time, and his response was 35 starts, maybe 225 innings. That would be very good by today's standards if the Pirates are successful (even if it would have made you a total wuss in 1885). And the best -- and safest -- way to get there, the studies show, is to go gradually.

This is probably what you are going to see from all teams and all pitchers before long. The Curt Schilling and Livan Hernandez types of the game are going to go through enough of a process that they might never have a chance to establish themselves as horses.

Is that better or worse? That is up to you.

My feeling is that, for all the crowing that is done about pitchers being tougher two or three decades ago and beyond, how many more simply vanished from the sport after the first tweak in their elbow. Such things receive all kinds of attention now. Did they back then?

Q: Was it just me, or was Ronny Paulino's tag on Monday a little too reminiscent of the Sid Bream play? Every time we've played the Braves since then, we have had to deal with that highlight.

Is it possibly that with the Braves missing the playoffs this year, it will open the door for the Pirates again next season?

Patrick Neville of Mount Vernon, Ohio

KOVACEVIC: You were not the only one who had that thought, my friend, that is for sure. On top of that, there is something unendingly disturbing about that tomahawk chop, like some nightmare where you are remembering something awful that happened to you during childhood.

In closing ...

Last week, I asked readers to imagine they were GM of the Pirates and were given a total $70 million budget for baseball operations. These were among the responses:

Adam Gesk of Upper St. Clair: I would spare no expense in the draft. As we've seen this year with Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver, both of whom the Pirates could have had, the best players often are available if you're willing to pay. Then, I would spend enough money on international scouting so as to compete with the second-tier spenders, i.e. Cardinals, Phillies, Giants. The rest would go to the major-league roster. $45-$55 million is plenty to compete if you have a smart GM.

Nathan Grossoehme of Cranberry: I would attempt to land a power bat in the offseason: overpay for a Gary Sheffield or Alfonso Soriano to play right field. I would also try to add Sean Casey back to the roster.

Josh Keebler of St. Marys, Pa.: 1. Set up Pirates academies in Latin America and increase visibility in Latin America. 2. Pirates drafts have had no depth of late. I would increase scouting payroll in the U.S. 3. Increase major-league payroll to $55-60 million. 4. Increase inner-city and youth programs.

Jeff Yot of Beechview, Pittsburgh: I would overpay a free agent to come to the Pirates. Being that the Pirates will lose 30-plus one-run games this year, a case can finally be made that a power hitter could make an impact. If not a hitter, a stud starter to lead the young rotation.

Dave Foster of Harrisburg: No free agents! Unless and until the Pirates are legitimate contenders with one or two spots to fill, they should utilize all money for keeping the quality young players they develop and not spend it instead on stopgap free agents. (And throw some cash at Jim Leyland to come back!)

Marda Hook of New York: First, sign Freddy Sanchez. The money the Pirates have been saving over the past few years should do the trick. Second, properly fund Latin American scouting. Next, draft without regard to money. Finally, save the rest for 2007 signings. Postscript: I swear, if they don't sign Freddy or trade him, I'm going to become the Wicked Witch of the East and melt into a puddle.

Jamie Schachter of Atlanta: $70 million? Easy. I'd sign Jose Hernandez, the "best 25th man in the majors" to a one-year, $30 million contract. Failing that, sign Carlos Lee. Send Jose Bautista to winter ball to learn center field. Sign Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt or Mark Mulder to another big contract. Without a legit No. 1 starter to go with our young guys, we'll never be anything more than a go-to joke for Jay Leno.

Edward Krajewski of Dravosburg: The main priority is signing a proven to help the younger pitchers. Split the other $15 million equally between drafting, farm system and Latin American player development. The Pirates really need to get in line with the rest of MLB with the latter of the three.

Bill Gordon of Ingram: Dejan, I'd definitely try to pump more into Latin American scouting and development. I'd also try to sign a player who can hit 20-plus homers to play right field, first base or third base. You then trade Jack Wilson.

Ryan Patton of Erie: Sign Latin American players first, saving a few bucks for the draft. How many Latin American major-leaguers mention Roberto Clemente as a hero? All? Pay up for a few studs, take a few chances, see what happens. God bless the vets we've been signing, but they ain't part of the solution.

Jim English of Sharon: I would strip the franchise, then give that money and whatever else it takes to buy out the Nuttings and Kevin McClatchy and start over.

KOVACEVIC: OK, and since someone in the Monday chat asked me for my breakdown, it would be as follows:

1. Latin American funding would double. The stakes have been raised in the past two years, and the Pirates are not among the prime players because they are not keeping up. This might cost about $7 million or so, but so be it. This is a legitimate chance to get ahead, and the people the Pirates have in this part of the world -- originally with Cleveland -- have a very good reputation.

2. Draft funding does not have much room to grow, if only because MLB strongly discourages teams from exceeding slotting. (No such things happen in the Latin world, for some reason.) The Pirates have not passed on prime talent in the early rounds in recent years, from the best of what can be discerned, but neither have they overpaid in later rounds. If it makes Bud Selig angry, again, so be it. Outside of sending the All-Star Game here, MLB is not exactly doing Pittsburgh many favors. Why play along with them?

3. Begin the process of locking up legitimate, young players early in their first three years, as Cleveland does. You might miss once in a while, but you might also -- correctly -- identify Freddy Sanchez as, at the very least, a contributor to your team early in his career. Then, you sign Sanchez through his arbitration years at a very low rate and win out big-time if he develops into so much as a starter, never mind the league's leading hitter. Also, this affords the bonus of being able to budget far in advance. The Pirates continue to sign players to such extensions only when they peak, which is not good business.

4. Forget free agents. Just forget them. Again citing Cleveland, make a bold trade to address needs.

5. Set aside $10 million-$15 million in an escrow account transparent to the public. Use it when the team is in legitimate position to make real moves toward real contention.

6. Get at least marginally involved in the Far East, perhaps pursuing 20-somethings with some potential rather than waiting for them to challenge Sadaharu Oh's records and move out of a reasonable price range.

7. Take more chances on six-year minor-league free agents. (Graham Koonce!)

Funny thing is, everything I just wrote up there still probably caps the Pirates' overall spending below $70 million while, presumably, strengthening them for the near and long-term future.

It really is not about the money in all matters. It is about focusing on the core, internal product, then making good decisions from there.

Until next week, by which time I might get my first e-mail all year long about the fine season Mike Gonzalez is having ...

First published on August 24, 2006 at 12:00 am