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Box-office bounty stirs deals
Thursday, August 10, 2006

This year's 4 percent upswing at the domestic box office is more than just a welcome relief to beleaguered movie-theater chains. It is a chance to uncork a bottled-up desire to make deals.

One major transaction, Cinemark USA Inc.'s proposed acquisition of Century Theatres Inc., was struck this week, while a few other theater-related businesses -- including No. 2 theater chain AMC Entertainment Inc. -- are considering public offerings, analysts and investors say.

But despite the revived movie-ticket sales of recent weeks, theater operators are likely to face some big questions as they lay out their plans. The chains already are challenged to find growth opportunities, and pressured to retain customers who are unhappy with the theater experience and increasingly have opted to wait for films to come out on DVD.

Now, theater owners also may have to contend with a tough holiday movie season that mightn't extend the box-office boost drummed up by hits like "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" and "Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby." With the exception of a new James Bond movie, "Casino Royale," this year's holiday season is devoid of the big, familiar names that have buoyed previous seasons. There isn't a "Harry Potter," "Chronicles of Narnia" or "Lord of the Rings" in sight. To draw moviegoers, the theater chains will instead be banking on a handful of as-yet-unproven properties like "Happy Feet," an animated picture about dancing penguins, and a movie adaptation of the fantasy book "Eragon."

"With maybe the exception of 'Happy Feet,' you don't have movies that probably, on paper, are headed to $200 million or more" in domestic ticket sales, says Jeffrey Logsdon, an analyst who covers media and entertainment for BMO Capital Markets Corp., a subsidiary of Canadian financial-services company BMO Financial Group. "Is that enough to overcome last year? We'll see."

He is understandably cautious. Theaters are painfully dependent on Hollywood studios to serve up movies that sell tickets, and by extension popcorn, drinks and candy. When the studios misfire, the theater owners' bottom lines are hurt.

"You can't do anything about the picture -- that's the only piece in the equation we can't do anything about," said Peter Brown, chairman of closely held AMC Entertainment.

The theater industry's ups and downs in recent years have largely been outside the view of investors, as only two major players -- No. 1 Regal Entertainment Group and No. 4 player Carmike Cinemas Inc. -- are publicly traded. In 4 p.m. trading Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange, Regal shares were down 66 cents at $18.81, giving the company a market capitalization of almost $3 billion. On the Nasdaq Stock Market, Carmike's stock closed at $21.41, three cents higher. The company has a market value of more than $260 million. Regal trades at 25 times per-share earnings estimates for 2006, while Carmike has a less-expensive price/earnings multiple of 18, according to Thomson Financial.

A handful of companies are considering public debuts. For example, the Chicago private-equity firm Madison Dearborn Capital Partners, which has raised more than $14 billion among five funds launched since 1992 and which owns Cinemark, is considering taking the combined Cinemark-Century public, according to analysts and investors. In 2002, Cinemark, then under different ownership, announced plans for an IPO, but two years later, after the company was sold to Madison Dearborn, it shelved the plans. An official at Madison Dearborn didn't respond to requests for comment.

Probably the biggest potential initial public offering would be AMC, based in Kansas City, Mo. Two-and-a-half years after taking the company private, its owners, a consortium of private-equity firms that includes Apollo Management LP and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s J.P. Morgan Partners, are considering taking AMC -- the nation's No. 2 exhibitor by number of screens -- public, say analysts and investors. The deal could be valued at $3 billion or $4 billion. A spokeswoman for the company declined to comment on the prospect of an IPO.

Mr. Brown, the chairman, who completed a merger with the New York-based chain Loews Cineplex Entertainment Corp. in January, has spent much of this year trying to shore up business through new initiatives. In May, AMC announced plans to show more specialty films in a number of locations, an attempt to lock in a greater share of the over-25 audience. In July, it announced plans to offer steeply discounted movie tickets to shows on Friday, Saturday and Sunday mornings.

"Seventy-five percent of the revenue comes from the weekend," Mr. Brown said. His recent initiatives are attempts to address the question: "Is there a way with price that you can create opportunity, a new market?"

It is a question National CineMedia LLC, another IPO candidate, also is confronting. The fast-growing theater-advertising company is owned jointly by Regal, AMC, and the No. 3 exhibitor, Texas-based Cinemark. Theater advertising grew almost 21 percent in 2005, according to the Cinema Advertising Council, a trade organization, and with additions like original celebrity interviews and behind-the-scenes footage from current releases, National CineMedia's retooling of its preshow entertainment segment, seems to be going over well.

As a result, some investors say they would look kindly on any National CineMedia offering, which according to analysts could be valued at $2 billion or so. For now, investors in Regal -- which owns 50 percent of the cinema-advertising company -- are getting half of CineMedia's revenue, a fact that could help explain the recent performance of Regal's stock, which is up 5 percent since the spring.

"People are investing in Regal in part because they like the National CineMedia business," says Gordon Hodge, media analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners. Mr. Hodge has a "peer perform," or "neutral," rating on Regal. His firm isn't currently doing investment-banking business for the exhibitor, and the analyst owns no shares of the stock.

First published on August 10, 2006 at 12:00 am