Jim McIsaac, Getty Images A SURE THING: In a draft where there are very few certainties, defensemen Erik Johnson is a virtual lock to be the first player selected, whether he's claimed by St. Louis or a team to which the Blues trade the No. 1 pick. Click photo for larger image. NHL Draft June 24th To see the draft order list, a mock draft and player profiles go to the Draft Center and use the Draft Tracker for complete draft coverage. Check here for Penguins' picks.

There is not a Sidney Crosby in the talent pool for the NHL entry draft Saturday.

No Alexander Ovechkins, either. Or Evgeni Malkins, for that matter.

Just a handful of promising young forwards such as Jordan Staal, Nicklas Backstrom, Jonathan Toews and Phil Kessel, all of whom have the potential to be impact players in the NHL someday.

And all of whom fall behind defenseman Erik Johnson in the prospect ratings of virtually every team and scouting service.

In a draft where there are few certainties, Johnson is a virtual lock to be the first player selected, whether he's claimed by St. Louis or a team to which the Blues trade the No. 1 pick.

Not that the Blues are -- or should be -- actively trying to deal the top choice, because Johnson has the potential to be the cornerstone on which a defense corps could be built.

If there is a glaring flaw in his game -- or any significant shortcoming aside from a lack of experience, a failing that's pretty tough to avoid for 18-year-olds -- the hundreds of scouts who have studied, evaluated and dissected his game don't seem to have detected it.

"He's a very strong player on both sides of the puck," Penguins head scout Greg Malone said. "He creates offense, jumping in the play, he moves the puck up and he's also very strong in his own end.

"On top of that, you add in the physical game, which he likes to play, and the whole package is complete. You're looking at a guy who has talent and has size. And has heart."

Johnson is 6 foot 4, 222 pounds, and a right-handed shot, which only adds to his appeal. He is a product of the U.S. national development program and plans to play at the University of Minnesota next winter.

He won't rule out passing on college if that's deemed the right move for his career, but seems to view turning pro immediately as a long shot.

"I've always wanted to play for Minnesota, and I still have pretty good intentions of doing that," said Johnson, a native of Bloomington, Minn. "I'll look at my options in the summer, see what's there for me and go from there."

Simply being the first prospect to have his name called at GM Place in Vancouver Saturday, he said, will not have a significant impact on his decision-making. He's mature enough to recognize that being the top pick carries no guarantee of long-term success.

"Even if I did go No. 1, I know it's just one day," he said. "It's just a number. It doesn't mean I'm going to have a great NHL career."

Even the most-gifted defensemen need more time to develop than the average forward. E.J. McGuire, the chief scout of NHL Central Scouting, believes Johnson, and the team that selects him, will be best-served by bringing him along slowly, but acknowledged that economic realities might mitigate against that in some cases.

"This is coming from a guy who has no stake in it: I'd love to see him play another year or two of university, then an [American Hockey League] year and whatever," McGuire said. "But my general manager job is not on the line, and the other compounding factor is the salary cap.

"These kids are coming into the league at an entry-level [salary]. Do I sign a 39-year-old guy at a premium price, or do I bring a kid along at a lesser price? At which point do we jeopardize the long-term career of a kid by bringing him in too early? This is all for the scouting staffs and the personnel of each team [to decide]."

The Penguins, who presumably won't have a shot at Johnson unless they trade up from the No. 2 spot, appear to share McGuire's perspective.

"You know he's going to be a really special player, but the whole thing is, you have to remember this kid is only 18," Malone said. "You have to let him grow up, let him mature a little more. Let him even improve his game. Sometimes, there's a mistake in rushing a prospect."

Johnson is understandably reluctant to compare his game to that of an established defenseman but, when pressed, acknowledged some similarities to Colorado's Rob Blake.

"He's right-handed and he's a big boy, so I try to play like him a little bit," Johnson said.

That he's the top-rated player available in this draft suggests he does it pretty well. And even with the NHL's renewed emphasis on skill, Johnson's toughness is not a liability, but simply one facet of a well-rounded game that should make him a marquee player in the league.

"In an NHL which is allowing more liberties to the smaller guy, he's big and he's mean," McGuire said. "I don't see either of those things [leading to him] taking too many penalties. He is the prototypical NHL defenseman. Soon. But maybe not next year."

NOTES -- Some scouts believe Swedish center Nicklas Backstrom and Czech winger Michael Frolik could be the only Europeans to go in the top 10 of the draft. "Certainly, there are years when the European crop has held the upper hand," McGuire said. "This happens to be part of the pendulum swing, where I believe it has swung back to North America. Backstrom probably will crack the top five. Who the other four are is a challenge [to determine]. Frolik will crack the top 10, probably. But it might only be two who crack the top 10, and eight North Americans."