When the stock market takes a nose dive like it did in May and early June, investors naturally start to worry, especially those saving for retirement or their children's education.
How low will stocks go? Is it time to cut any losses and get out? Are their better options out there?
Like other investment professionals, Doug Kreps, portfolio manager at Green Tree-based Fort Pitt Capital Group, reminds clients not to panic.
"These things do happen," Mr. Kreps said of the recent market swoon, which ended abruptly the past two days, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising more than 300 points to once again close above the 11,000 level.
"If you are going to get spooked after five or six weeks on the downside," you probably are not cut out for the stock market, he said. He noted that, typically, the vast majority of market gains come on only a relatively few days of the year.
"It varies year to year, but less than 10 percent of the days in any given year account for all of the returns in any given year, so it's important to be invested on those good days," Mr. Kreps said. "Trying to time the market and avoid the bad days is a tall order."
Indeed, in the last two days, stocks rebounded sharply, with the Dow marking its best two-day run since April 2003, regaining nearly a third of the 1,000 points it shed since flirting with a record high on May 10 and pushing it back in positive territory for the year.
Broader indexes also have rallied, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index gaining 26.12, or 2.12 percent, yesterday to close at 1,256.16, and the Nasdaq composite index surging 58.15, or 2.79 percent, to 2,144.15.
Investors who sold before the run-up may have lost out, Mr. Kreps said, noting his firm "put a fair amount of money to work Monday and Tuesday" before the turnaround, snapping up select telecommunications and financial stocks.
Greg Melvin, chief investment officer at C.S. McKee, Downtown, said his firm also saw the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity, picking up shares in emerging markets, including India and China.
"We were actually hoping everyone would panic a little more, which may still happen, so we could pick up some more stocks," he said.
The market has been in a funk because of mounting fears over inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue its long string of interest rate increases to keep it in check.
Higher rates could stall economic growth and will give investors more attractive alternatives to stocks.
Investors, especially retirees, "feel less pressure to be in stocks and bonds" when safer investments such as bank certificates of deposit and money market funds are earning 4 percent and 5 percent, Mr. Melvin said.
The pop in the market yesterday came as government data and comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke eased concerns about a faltering economy, market watchers said.
So, which way is the market headed?
Neither Mr. Kreps nor Mr. Melvin sees a long-term decline on the horizon.
Since the bull market began in 2003, corporate earnings have risen roughly twice as fast as stock prices, indicating stocks have a way to go before they are considered overvalued, Mr. Kreps said.
"The idea that this is the end of the bull cycle, we think is not true," he said.
Mr. Melvin believes stocks are fairly priced and that investors can expect modest, below-average annual returns of around 8 percent over the next five to seven years.
"It's not great. Nobody is going to get rich anymore, but it's OK," he said.
Mr. Melvin said lackluster returns will mean that investors nearing retirement may have to sock more money away or plan on working a little longer.
