General Motors Corp. may be struggling, but as far as industry insiders are concerned, financially troubled Ford Motor Co.'s prospects are bleaker. And the reasons are as obvious as the new models on the showroom floor, which are for the most part dull and uninteresting. And those in the pipeline don't seem to be much better.
"I've thought Ford was in worse shape than GM for the last six months or so," said Jack Nerad of Kelley Blue Book. "A lot of us were looking at what we already have from Ford and what we know is coming from Ford, and we are less positive about what's coming up for them vs. what GM has been announcing."
The dissatisfaction with Ford's product offerings is part of the reason why Fitch Ratings last week downgraded the long-term debt ratings for Ford and its financing unit deeper into junk status. Further market share losses and cost increases also were factors. "There is little to point to in terms of a turnaround for Ford in North America through 2007,'' said Mark Oline, Fitch managing director.
A look at some of today's vehicle segments illustrates where Ford has problems. "Must have" or so-called "halo" cars and trucks -- products that are showroom traffic generators that add luster to the whole product lineup even if consumers end up buying a different model -- are sorely lacking.
By contrast, rival GM has several, including the Chevy Corvette, Pontiac Solstice and Saturn Sky roadsters. Corvettes have been regularly snapped up for decades, and the Solstice and Sky are sellouts with waiting lists. In fact, GM reportedly is looking for ways to increase plant capacity to build more.
Moreover, sales of Ford's only "must have" car, the Mustang, already have slowed a year after the latest make was introduced. In May, sales were down 21 percent from a year ago, and are down 11.6 percent so far this year when compared to the same period last year.
Things aren't likely to get any easier for Mustang in the next year or two, with Chevy expected to introduce its competing Camaro and Dodge, its Challenger. There is even speculation that Pontiac may bring back the Firebird.
In the heart of the market -- family sedans -- Ford also is struggling. It takes both of its main family sedan models, the full-size Five Hundred and its popular intermediate Fusion, to even come close to the sales of just one GM product, the full-size Chevy Impala.
According to J.D. Powers and Associates, Chevy's new Impala sold 23,702 units last month, vs. only 8,204 Five Hundreds, its direct competitor from Ford.
The SUV market, long a source of profits and health for both GM and Ford, is another area where the nation's second-largest domestic automaker has its hands full. For example, sales of its Explorer line fell 13 percent in May, following a 47 percent plunge in April, J.D. Power figures show. And sales of the larger Expedition model plummeted 45.3 percent in May. Only the smaller, gas-friendlier Escape saw sales rise -- up 19 percent from May a year ago.
There were bright spots for Ford in May's industry sales report.
The Mercury Milan and Ford Fusion are selling well, and the aging Ford Focus subcompact still had a 13 percent increase in sales last month, largely because of concern over gas prices.
The Lincoln division, buoyed by strong sales for its all-new Zephyr, had an 8.2 percent increase in sales. And its Town Car, one of the oldest designs in the American auto industry, had a 9.9 percent increase in sales in May.
Still, analysts worry that Ford isn't learning important lessons about how the vehicle sales market works -- and they say it's hurting the firm in lost sales.
For instance, Ford introduced 2007 replacements for the Lincoln Navigator and the Ford Expedition at the Chicago International Auto Show. But other than some cosmetics and new grilles, they look almost identical to 2006 models. Meanwhile, Cadillac grabbed headlines -- and big sales increases -- with its all-new Escalade, as did Chevy with its Tahoe and GMC with its Yukon.
Ford twice has made the mistake of clothing all-new products with styling that looks too much like models they are replacing, and consumers miss the big improvements and upgrades that Ford has included, analysts say.
American consumers long have been conditioned to think "all-new" also means new styling, and thus have largely ignored the newest generation of the Explorer and the Freestar. Consumers have the impression that "Ford's products are dull and uninspiring," said Peter Morici, a business analyst and professor at the University of Maryland's Robert Smith School of Business.
Mr. Nerad, of Kelley Blue Book, says a shortage of cash may explain why Ford is having trouble being creative in the styling area, particularly when it comes to differentiating among Ford and Mercury products.
"Differentiation costs more. Maybe when they look at this, they ask themselves, 'What do we gain by having more differentiation and is it worth the cost?' " Mr. Nerad said.
Another problem is management style, Mr. Morici said. There are certain dynamics that come with being a family-owned company that might work against doing anything perceived as too risky, he said.
"It's a politically correct company making mediocre products,'' he said. "There's not enough thought being given to content, who will buy their products, and they end up missing whole segments of the market. They do have some good products, just not enough of them."
Earlier this year, Ford announced the much-touted "Way Forward" revitalization and recovery plan. It stressed stronger and more focused Ford, Lincoln and Mercury brands, fostering an environment of innovation, and achieving a competitive fixed cost structure. It also called for cutting 30,000 jobs and closing up to 15 plants by 2012.
Mr. Morici, was, as were other analysts, left unimpressed. He believes the changes are undramatic, too slow and don't get at the root of Ford's problems -- credible, innovative leadership. "They've been re-organizing for 20 years" and still continue to lose market share, Mr. Morici said.
Bill Ford, the company's chairman and chief executive officer, has acknowledged his company's challenges.
In a speech earlier this year, he said the automaker "will no longer stand for ... incremental change, avoiding risk, thinking short-term, blocking innovation, tying our people's hands, defending procedures that don't make sense and selling what we have instead of what the customer wants."
But while the company has taken steps in line with Mr. Ford's directive -- it canceled some products in the pipeline because they weren't exciting enough and is moving to reduce the average age of its models by a year to 3.2 by 2008 -- the automaker needs to be more forthcoming about its future if it hopes to regain investor and consumer confidence, Mr. Nerad said.
"If I had great stuff in the pipeline that was not visible, I'd start to make it visible even if it means introducing it earlier,'' he said. "I would look to shake things up."
GM took that step last year when it introduced its SUVs earlier than it had planned and invited a few journalists into its top secret styling studios to look at future models to be unveiled over the next few years. That added confidence, and GM's "buzz" among car writers has been more positive since, industry sources note.
Ford also needs to get its priorities straight by understanding that the Ford nameplate is the most important product line. "They're taking their eye off the ball if they spend a lot of time worrying about Lincoln and Mercury," Mr. Nerad said.
"For Ford to be successful, the Ford division has to be successful, and they have to sell more cars,'' he said. "Fusion is all about what a Ford should be. It's pretty, it's inexpensive, its mainstream, but it still looks somewhat distinctive. And it's priced right. They need more cars like that."