The estimated cost of the Mon-Fayette Expressway and Southern Beltway has jumped by $1.4 billion -- to $5.4 billion -- during the past five years and completion of the roads may be too expensive.

That's the conclusion of a report that will be released today by the Urban Land Institute, a national organization of mostly architects, developers and real estate professionals with 200 members in the Pittsburgh chapter.

The institute is questioning where the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission will get the $3.5 billion still needed to complete the final 50 miles of the 100-mile toll-road network.

So far, the turnpike commission has used state gasoline tax and motor vehicle fees to issue bonds and raise most of nearly $1.9 billion for sections of the highway open in Allegheny, Washington and Fayette counties or in various stages of study and design.

But the report, funded by the Heinz Endowments at the behest of the institute and done by CONSAD Research Corp. of East Liberty, says the turnpike commission's bonding capacity "has been largely tapped out" and that "no other source of significant funding exists at the state or federal level ... nor does privatization appear to be a viable alternative."

Counting money spent, money set aside for continuing work and the $3.5 billion still needed, the total tab for the Mon-Fayette Expressway and Southern Beltway now stands at $5.4 billion.

Much of the increase has come over the past year and has been attributed to design changes and rapidly escalating costs of construction materials and energy.

Don Carter, president of Urban Design Associates and a member of the institute's executive council, said the group isn't taking a position on the merits of the Mon-Fayette Expressway and Southern Beltway, one the nation's largest active construction projects, and one that has not come without controversy.

"We don't need to have that debate again," he said of whether the highway is needed and about its community impacts. "What hasn't been settled is the finance issue. We felt too little has been said about where the money will come from for construction and even how much is needed."

The institute addresses several areas of regional interest each year, such as the casino issue. It picked toll roads as a 2006 issue because of members' increasing concerns about the turnpike commission's ability to finance the project, Mr. Carter said.

Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Executive Director Joe Brimmeier accepted the institute's invitation to participate in the panel, to be chaired by Morton Coleman, emeritus director of the University of Pittsburgh's Institute of Politics.

"Some people told me not to go, but I'm going with an open mind, to learn, to digest information," he said. "Of course it's a lot of money, but if we waited until we amassed all of the money, 50 miles of the road would not be open or under construction by now."

Mr. Brimmeier did not dispute the report's figures. He offered that the estimated cost of the 24-mile northern section of the Mon-Fayette Expressway -- from Route 51 in Jefferson Hills, north to Monroeville and Pittsburgh -- has risen from $1.8 billion to $2.7 billion, or $300 million more than CONSAD reported.

"Highways don't get built overnight," he said. "Would I like to have $3 billion? Sure. Do I wish we were rebuilding the U.S. instead of Iraq? Sure. But we don't and we're not."

The report concluded:

While turnpike commission documents show the agency has $748 million to spend through 2012 on the two toll roads, they also show the money will run out and no funds will be available to continue construction beyond then.

Discussions with state legislators indicated more state toll-road funding is not likely in the near term or long term and must be measured against other highway and bridge needs.

Federal financing that has been minimal to date -- about $61 million -- is likely to remain that way.

The commission's financial plan foreseeing "potential future funding sources," such as more state taxes to support $1.4 billion in additional bonds and $100 million from public-private partnerships, is improbable.

Because of problems and runaway costs associated with the notorious Big Dig in Boston, the federal government is imposing greater scrutiny over major road construction and requiring financial plans for mega projects like the Mon-Fayette Expressway and Southern Beltway.

Although an Australia-based international banking consortium that has been buying into U.S. toll roads has held preliminary discussions with Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission officials, it hasn't made a privatization proposal for the uncompleted parts of the expressway or beltway.

CONSAD said the $17,000 study was conducted using authoritative documents and interviews that included U.S. Sens. Rick Santorum and Arlen Specter and officials from the Federal Highway Administration, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Southwestern Pennsylvania Commission, which sets transportation funding priorities for the 10-county region.

Mr. Carter, whose firm is working with Pittsburgh Mayor Bob O'Connor on the Forbes-Fifth Avenue corridor development, predicted that today's report and meeting would be a "barn-burner."

"[But] all questions will be limited to the financing plan," he said.

Joe Kirk, executive director of the Mon Valley Progress Council, who also co-chairs an alliance of businesses and officials supporting the expressway and beltway, said he'll attend although he received no invitation.

"I was never contacted regarding the nature of the study, the need for the project, the economic benefits, the financing or any other issue," he said. "Look at what has been done so far. We've raised $1.8 billion and by 2010, there will be a continuous highway from West Virginia into Allegheny County."

Mr. Kirk continued: "We have yet another organization trying to tell us what we can and can't do. We've faced this before but found ways to keep the project on track for the economic recovery of the region."