The headlines are familiar:

"House mulls school tax change"

"Block pay grab, senator urges"

"Legislative pay grab faces last vote"

Those are not the headlines from the past year, when the state Legislature drew sharp criticism for legislative pay raises and made unsuccessful attempts at tax reform.

They were published in 1978, a year when six Allegheny County incumbent House members were defeated, five House seats changed hands due to retirements, and the biggest statewide turnover in generations swept the chamber clean.

Tuesday's primary election will go a long way toward determining whether the same type of changeover will follow the furor over last year's pay raises. In the five-county area, 22 state House seats are being contested, with many high-profile, long-term incumbents facing serious challenges for the first time in recent memory.

In 1978, voters went to the polls to replace Democrat Milton Shapp, whose administration was plagued with corruption, and also to elect House members. In addition to ethical concerns about politicians in general, House members faced a public that was upset because members had considered raising their own pay.

The sweeping changes that year brought into office former U.S. Attorney Dick Thornburgh as governor and a raft of new House members from Allegheny County, including Democrats such as Mike Dawida, later an Allegheny County commissioner, and Tom Murphy, future Pittsburgh mayor.

Other newcomers that year from Allegheny County were Tom Michlovic, Stephen Grabowski, Steve Seventy and Frank Pistella, D-Bloomfield, who is seeking his 15th term Tuesday.

"It was a major coup," recalled Mr. Dawida, now a real estate lawyer and teacher of international law. "It was the same issue -- the pay raise.

"I think one of the beauties of democracy is it periodically sweeps people out. About every 20 years or so, the public decides, 'These people aren't functioning as well as they once did' and votes them out."

Mr. Dawida said there are major changes since 1978 that make it more difficult to defeat incumbents now.

"It's harder now because incumbents have money they can pass out and the newsletters, which give them the edge over a challenger," Mr. Dawida said. "It appears the only thing that can [endanger] an incumbent is something as ill-conceived and poorly thought out as this pay raise fiasco."

Grass-roots opposition

Additionally, there are organized efforts to oust incumbents this time around. An organization known as PACleanSweep took flight shortly after the July 7, middle-of-the-night raises were approved, with the nonpartisan goal of defeating all incumbents, whether they voted for pay raises or not. Other groups such as Democracy Rising and Rock the Capitol have joined calls for substantial changes in Harrisburg.

Those groups haven't offered much financial help -- often a candidate's biggest need -- but they have provided organizational advice and kept beating the drums for political change.

G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, said the anti-incumbent movement is strong but isolated. While it is a big issue in southwest and southcentral parts of the state, "it was never really a statewide phenomena," he said.

In those regions, though, the issue is strong. That's important because some of the top legislative leaders live in those areas: Senate President Pro Tem Robert Jubelirer, R-Altoona; House Minority Leader H. William DeWeese, D-Waynesburg; and Rep. Mike Veon, D-Beaver Falls, the No. 2 Democrat in the House, and all are facing serious challenges for the first time in years.

Mr. Jubelirer has spent nearly $900,000 in his three-way battle with Blair County Commissioner John Eichelberger and Huntingdon County farmer C. Arnold McClure.

Mr. DeWeese is battling Fayette County Treasurer Robert Danko. He has spent more than $200,000.

Mr. Veon, D-Beaver Falls, has raised more than $718,000 for his primary battle with retired schoolteacher Jay Paisley. This has been a particularly combative race and Mr. Veon could be in trouble because he steadfastly defended the pay raise and was the only legislator to vote against revoking it.

"[The pay raise issue] is still holding or these incumbents wouldn't be spending hundreds of thousands of dollars," said Mr. Madonna. "This is nonpartisan. The voters aren't looking at this and thinking, 'We have to vote out the Democrats' or 'We have to vote out the Republicans.' They're going after incumbents."

Across the state, voters will choose their party's candidates for all 203 House seats and half of the 50 Senate seats, although no state Senate races are being contested in this area. Under normal circumstances, there is little change; only two incumbents lost in 2004.

Although Democrats are hopeful of making some gains in the House in November, if an incumbent is in jeopardy, it's more likely to be in the primary because many districts have been gerrymandered to strongly favor one party so that whoever wins the primary usually wins in November.

"For me, if you have 15 or 20 incumbents lose, it would be a seismic event," said Mr. Madonna. "It would be a tsunami across the state. If five or six lose, it would be a yawn."

Should one of the top leaders lose, it would be "a huge attention-getter" because caucus leaders hold so much power in the current environment, he said.

Regardless, there will be a lot of new faces in Harrisburg next year because 27 incumbents chose not to seek re-election.

Mr. Dawida remembers significant changes after the 1978 election, including establishing an ethics code for legislators and state employees.

"The culture changed. A lot of good things happened," he said. "As 20 or 30 years roll by, you have a different set of problems. The body fell back to a different kind of ethical problem. The public is probably going to do something about it."