Post-Gazette national baseball writer Paul Meyer breaks down the 2006 division races in the American League and offers his predictions(in order):

St. Louis Cardinals

2005: 100-62, first place, lost to Houston Astros in League Championship Series in six games.

Manager: Tony La Russa, 11th season.

Key newcomers: RHP Sidney Ponson, OF Larry Bigbie, 2B Junior Spivey, OF Juan Encarnacion, RHP Braden Looper, RHP Jeff Nelson, LHP Ricardo Rincon, 2B Aaron Miles, Busch Stadium.

Key departures: Busch Stadium, RHP Matt Morris, RHP Julian Tavarez, INF Abraham Nunez, 2B Mark Grudzielanek, LHP Ray King, OF Reggie Sanders, OF Larry Walker, OF John Mabry.

Possible batting order: SS David Eckstein (.294, 8, 61), LF Larry Bigbie (.212, 0, 2), 1B Albert Pujols (.330, 41, 117), CF Jim Edmonds (.263, 29, 89), 3B Scott Rolen (.235, 5, 28), RF Juan Encarnacion (.287, 16, 76), 2B Junior Spivey (.232, 7, 24), C Yadier Molina (.252, 8, 49).

Rotation: RHP Chris Carpenter (21-5, 2.83), LHP Mark Mulder (16-8, 3.64), RHP Jeff Suppan (16-10, 3.57), RHP Jason Marquis (13-14, 4.13), RHP Sidney Ponson (7-11, 6.21).

Closer: RHP Jason Isringhausen (39 saves, 2.14).

Should finish: First. The Cardinals are beginning to look like the Atlanta Braves. They win, talent leaves, talent arrives. They plugged Juan Encarnacion and Larry Bigbie into an outfield that lost Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders. They inserted Junior Spivey to succeed Mark Grudzielanek. They added Ricardo Rincon and Braden Looper to a bullpen that lost Ray King and Julian Tavarez. And they put Sidney Ponson into the rotation to try to replace Matt Morris. Finally, in a novel move, they replaced Busch Stadium with, uh, Busch Stadium. What the latter move means that the Cardinals will have a new home in which they'll win a third division championship in a row. The Cardinals had the league's best earned run average (3.49) and unless Ponson falters, they'll have another solid rotation from one through five. If the Cardinals can keep Scott Rolen healthy for a full season, there's no reason to think the offense won't be even better at doing all the right things. Reigning Most Valuable Player Albert Pujols sets the tone there. Jason Isringhausen, who converted 39 of 43 save opportunities, anchors a solid bullpen that last season led the league with a 3.17 earned run average.

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Chicago Cubs

2005: 79-83, fourth place, 21 games behind.

Manager: Dusty Baker, fourth season.

Key newcomers: RF Jacque Jones, LHP Scott Eyre, RHP Bob Howry, OF Juan Pierre, OF John Mabry.

Key departures: OF Jeromy Burnitz, OF Corey Patterson, RHP Sergio Mitre, INF Nomar Garciaparra.

Possible batting order: CF Juan Pierre (.276, 2, 47), 2B Todd Walker (.305, 12, 40), 1B Derrek Lee (.335, 46, 107), 3B Aramis Ramirez (.302, 31, 92), RF Jacque Jones (.249, 23, 73), LF Matt Murton (.321, 7, 14), C Michael Barrett (.276, 16, 61), SS Neifi Perez (.274, 9, 54).

Rotation: RHP Mark Prior (11-7, 3.67), RHP Greg Maddux (13-15, 4.24), RHP Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.26), LHP Glendon Rusch (9-8, 4.52), RHP Jerome Williams (6-8, 3.91).

Closer: RHP Ryan Dempster (33 saves, 3.13).

Should finish: Second. This is an important season for the Cubs, who have been a bit star-crossed since that Steve Bartman thing three years ago. Manager Dusty Baker's contract expires after this season, and with his team having slipped from 89 wins in 2004 to 79 last season, Baker's situation will be under close scrutiny. Chicago's offense, which last season produced only 39 stolen bases, should become more speed-oriented with the arrivals of Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones, who last season combined for 70 steals. Pierre had 57 of those and will give the Cubs the leadoff hitter Corey Patterson never became. Pierre's career on-base percentage is .355. Patterson's is .293. However, no matter how well the offense does, the Cubs' success or failure hinges on their rotation, which has been an inconsistent piece the past couple of years. Most in baseball believe that with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, the Cubs should be a lock to win. Thing is, the Cubs haven't had Wood and Prior much. Those two combined in the previous two seasons were 28-24. Greg Maddux, probably heading into his final season, had 29 wins in those two years. Wood probably will begin this season in the bullpen as he returns from August shoulder surgery. Until Wood is ready to rejoin the rotation, Jerome Williams will keep his place warm. Scott Eyre gives the Cubs a durable reliever from the left side. He worked in a career-high 86 games with San Francisco last season.

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Milwaukee Brewers

2005: 81-81, third place, 19 games behind.

Manager: Ned Yost, fourth season.

Key newcomers: 3B Corey Koskie, RHP David Bush, RHP Dan Kolb.

Key departures: 1B Lyle Overbay, RHP Wes Obermueller, 3B Wes Helms, 3B Russell Branyan, RHP Victor Santos.

Possible batting order: CF Brady Clark (.306, 13, 53), 2B Rickie Weeks (.239, 13, 42), RF Geoff Jenkins (.292, 25, 86), LF Carlos Lee (.265, 32, 114), 1B Prince Fielder (.288, 2, 10), 3B Corey Koskie (.249, 11, 36), C Damian Miller (.273, 9, 43), SS J.J. Hardy (.247, 9, 50).

Rotation: RHP Ben Sheets (10-9, 3.33), LHP Doug Davis (11-11, 3.84), LHP Chris Capuano (18-12, 3.99), RHP Tomo Ohka (11-9, 4.04), RHP Rick Helling (3-1, 2.39).

Closer: RHP Derrick Turnbow (39 saves, 1.74).

Should finish: Third. And if they do, that probably will rank as a disappointment to some fans. Milwaukee last season ended its run of 12 consecutive losing seasons by finishing .500. The Brewers' fans will take that as a sign that their team will be a strong contender this season. However, sometimes a team that overachieves one season slides back a bit the next season. And the Cardinals are still in the Central. Still, the Brewers showed much improvement last season and, like the Pirates, have a group of solid youngsters beginning to come to the forefront. J.J. Hardy, who looks like a young Jack Wilson at shortstop, struggled early last season, but the Brewers showed patience with him and were rewarded. At the All-Star break, Hardy had a .187 batting average and a .293 on-base percentage. After the All-Star break, his figures were .308 and .363. That will be a solid argument for the Brewers to stick with Prince Fielder if he struggles out of the gate as first baseman Lyle Overbay's successor. Fielder spent most of last season with Class AAA Nashville, where he hit .291 with 28 home runs and 86 RBIs in 378 at-bats. Rickie Weeks was of some concern last season. The second baseman made 21 errors in 94 starts. Perhaps an injured left thumb was part of Weeks' problem. His thumb has been surgically repaired so he should be good to go.

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Houston Astros

2005: 89-73, wild card, lost to Chicago White Sox in World Series in four games.

Manager: Phil Garner, third season.

Key newcomers: OF Preston Wilson.

Key departures: RHP Roger Clemens, INF Jose Vizcaino.

Possible batting order: CF Willy Taveras (.291, 3, 29), 2B Craig Biggio (.264, 26, 69), 1B Lance Berkman (.293, 24, 82), 3B Morgan Ensberg (.283, 36, 101), CF Preston Wilson (.260, 25, 90), RF Jason Lane (.267, 26, 78), SS Adam Everett (.248, 11, 54), C Brad Ausmus (.258, 3, 47).

Rotation: RHP Roy Oswalt (20-12, 2.94), LHP Andy Pettitte (17-9, 2.39), RHP Brandon Backe (10-8, 4.76), RHP Ezequiel Astacio (3-6, 5.67), LHP Wandy Rodriguez (10-10, 5.53).

Closer: RHP Brad Lidge (42 saves, 2.29).

Should finish: Fourth. We should note that the lineup is based on Jeff Bagwell, 37, not playing for the Astros this season. If he does return, Bagwell certainly won't be the run producer he was throughout much of his career. With Bagwell gone, the Astros lose some of the swagger that carried them into the World Series last season. And with Roger Clemens probably gone, too, the Astros lose some toughness in their rotation. Roy Oswalt, a 20-game winner in each of the past two seasons, is superb and Andy Pettitte is fine, but there isn't much behind them in the rotation. Brad Lidge, his postseason adventures notwithstanding, is an excellent closer. The Astros have had winning seasons in 12 of the past 13 years, but they might be fortunate to stay above .500 in 2006. Their fans, though, can center attention on Craig Biggio's drive for 3,000 career hits. Biggio, 40, needs 205 to reach 3,000. He had 156 hits in 2005, so he most likely won't get to 3,000 this year. Will he come back to continue the pursuit? And does he make the Hall of Fame if he doesn't?

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Pirates

2005: 67-95, sixth place, 33 games behind.

Manager: Jim Tracy, first season.

Key newcomers: 1B Sean Casey, 3B Joe Randa, OF Jeromy Burnitz, RHP Roberto Hernandez, LHP Damaso Marte, RHP Victor Santos.

Key departures: INF Rob Mackowiak, CF Tike Redman, RHP Josh Fogg, RHP Jose Mesa, 3B Ty Wigginton, RHP Rick White, LHP Mark Redman, INF Bobby Hill.

Possible batting order: CF Chris Duffy (.341, 1, 9), SS Jack Wilson (.257, 8, 52), LF Jason Bay (.306, 32, 101), RF Jeromy Burnitz (.258, 24, 87), 1B Sean Casey (.312, 9, 58), 3B Joe Randa (.276, 17, 68), 2B Jose Castillo (.268, 11, 53), C Ryan Doumit (.255, 6, 35).

Rotation: LHP Zach Duke (8-2, 1.81), LHP Oliver Perez (7-5, 5.85), LHP Paul Maholm (3-1, 2.18), RHP Ian Snell (1-2, 5.14), RHP Victor Santos (4-13, 4.57).

Closer: LHP Mike Gonzalez (3 saves, 2.70).

Should finish: Fifth. But maybe a whole bunch of stuff will work out and these guys can somehow get to 81 wins. This losing season stuff -- 13 if you need a reminder -- is getting tiresome . The Pirates sure didn't need the loss of Kip Wells in spring training. Wells had 18 losses last season, but his surgery meant the Pirates now will have two fifth starters instead of one fourth starter and one fifth starter. And the other three are young . Mike Gonzalez is young, too, in terms of major-league experience, and has almost no experience as a closer. The pitching, which will be a strength by next season, might be a bit dicey this season. The Pirates, trying so hard to look like contenders during this All-Star season, will have a more major-league appearance to their lineup. General manager Dave Littlefield added some professional hitters in the offseason, but the Pirates are going to have to win a lot of games 4-2. They still don't have that bopper in the middle of the order, so that old "get-them-on, get-them-over, get-them-in" offensive approach had better work. Keep this in mind -- the Pirates in 2004 were 37-52 against the Central. Last season they were 30-50. They're not going anywhere toward a winning season until they can improve against their own division.

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Cincinnati Reds

2005: 73-89, fifth place, 27 games behind.

Manager: Jerry Narron, first season.

Key newcomers: LHP David Williams, 2B Tony Womack, LHP Chris Hammond, RHP Rick White, owner Robert Castellini, general manager Wayne Krivsky.

Key departures: 1B Sean Casey, RHP Ramon Ortiz; RF Wily Mo Pena.

Possible batting order: 2B Tony Womack (.249, 0, 15), SS Felipe Lopez (.291, 23, 85), CF Ken Griffey Jr. (.301, 35, 92), LF Adam Dunn (.247, 40, 101), 1B Scott Hatteberg (.256, 7, 59), RF Austin Kearns (.240, 18, 67), 3B Edwin Encarnacion (.232, 9, 31), C Jason LaRue (.260, 14, 60).

Rotation: RHP Aaron Harang (11-13, 3.83), LHP Dave Williams (10-11, 4.41), LHP Eric Milton (8-15, 6.47), LHP Brandon Claussen (10-11, 4.21), RHP Paul Wilson (1-5, 7.77).

Closer: RHP David Weathers (15 saves, 3.94).

Should finish: Sixth. But let's not forget this. The Reds have Tony Womack -- and success has followed the former Pirate recently. He was with Arizona when it won the World Series in 2001. He spent the end of the '03 season with the Cubs, and they made it to the NLCS. In '04, he played for St. Louis, which reached the World Series. And last season he was with the Yankees, who won the American League East. It's highly unlikely Womack will play for a winner this season. The Reds have changed ownership, and Robert Castellini seems driven to bring championship baseball back to Cincinnati. New general manager Wayne Krivsky, so much a part of Minnesota's success as general manager Terry Ryan's right-hand guy, is of an equal mind. But it will require some time -- and much better pitching -- before they can reach that goal. If the above starting rotation does materialize, bear in mind that quintet last season combined for a 40-55 record and a 4.54 earned run average. Perhaps Womack should pitch.