Post-Gazette national baseball writer Paul Meyer breaks down the 2006 division races in the American League and offers his predictions(in order):

New York Mets

2005: 83-79, third place (tie), seven games behind.

Manager: Willie Randolph, second season.

Key newcomers: OF Xavier Nady, 1B Carlos Delgado, LHP Billy Wagner, C Paul Lo Duca, 1B Julio Franco, RHP Chad Bradford, RHP Duaner Sanchez.

Key departures: C Mike Piazza, OF Mike Cameron, RHP Kris Benson , 1B Mike Jacobs, 2B Miguel Cairo, 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, RHP Jae Sao.

Possible batting order: SS Jose Reyes (.273, 7, 58), C Paul Lo Duca (.283, 6, 57), CF Carlos Beltran (.266, 16, 78), 1B Carlos Delgado (.301, 33, 115), 3B David Wright (.306, 27, 102), LF Cliff Floyd (.273, 34, 98), RF Xavier Nady (.261, 13, 41), 2B Anderson Hernandez (.056, 0, 0).

Rotation: RHP Pedro Martinez (15-8, 2.82), LHP Tom Glavine (13-13, 3.53), RHP Steve Trachsel (1-4. 4.14), RHP Victor Zambrano (7-12, 4.17), RHP Brian Bannister.

Closer: LHP Billy Wagner (38 saves, 1.51).

Should finish: First. The Mets were a mess just two years ago, winning only 71 games and trying to figure out what went wrong with a bunch of high-priced talent. However, they showed progress last season, and aggressive general manager Omar Minaya acquired so much talent in the offseason that the Mets can't lose this year. It helps, of course, that Atlanta will fall off, finally. This division was highly competitive last season -- nine games separated the five teams -- and if it's even close to that competitive again, the Mets have a huge edge in new closer Billy Wagner. The offense received a huge jolt when Minaya brought aboard Carlos Delgado. Carlos Beltran, sort of a bust in his first season with the Mets last year, should provide much more production. David Wright is a superstar in waiting. Paul Lo Duca is an excellent contact hitter -- 213 strikeouts in 2,762 big-league at-bats. The trade of Kris Benson to Baltimore means Brian Bannister will be the fifth starter in a rotation that in 2005 had the fourth-lowest earned run average in the major leagues (3.71). Tom Glavine, 40, has 275 career victories. He won't get to 300 this season, but he'll get close enough that coming back next season will be a no-brainer.

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Atlanta Braves

2005: 90-72, first place, lost to Houston Astros in division series in four games.

Manager: Bobby Cox, 21st season.

Key newcomers: SS Edgar Renteria, C Todd Pratt.

Key departures: Pitching coach Leo Mazzone, SS Rafael Furcal, RHP Dan Kolb, RHP Kyle Farnsworth, 1B Julio Franco, 3B Andy Marte, C Johnny Estrada.

Possible batting order: 2B Marcus Giles (.291, 15, 63), SS Edgar Renteria (.276, 8, 70), 3B Chipper Jones (.296, 21, 72), CF Andruw Jones (.263, 51, 128), 1B Adam LaRoche (.259, 20, 78), RF Jeff Francouer (.300, 14, 45), C Brian McCann (.278, 5, 23), LF Ryan Langerhans (.267, 8, 42).

Rotation: RHP John Smoltz (14-7, 3.06), RHP Tim Hudson (14-9, 3.52), RHP John Thomson (4-6, 4.47), LHP Horacio Ramirez (11-9, 4.63), RHP Jorge Sosa (13-3, 2.55).

Closer: RHP Chris Reitsma (15 saves, 3.93).

Should finish: Second. The Braves have won 14 consecutive division championships -- an amazing achievement -- but only one World Series title to show for that incredible run. They won't add to that total this year. People have predicted that the Braves' streak will end in each of the past two seasons, but there's just too much to overcome for them to win this season. The departure of pitching coach Leo Mazzone to Baltimore could be enough of a loss. Mazzone's Atlanta pitching staffs ranked first or second in the major leagues in earned run average in 12 of the past 14 seasons. That's quite a track record for new pitching coach Roger McDowell to try to emulate. The Braves' rotation will be OK, but their bullpen -- a patchwork array last season because former Milwaukee closer Dan Kolb was a bust -- figures to be shaky again. Chris Reitsma is the closer for now, but the Braves probably would love to have John Smoltz walk into Bobby Cox's office and volunteer to return to the bullpen. That move also would settle the issue of who's the fifth starter. Jorge Sosa is the favorite , but young Kyle Davis wouldn't be the odd man out if Smoltz went to the bullpen. The Braves, who were in the World Series in 1999, used 18 rookies last season and had eight rookies on their playoff roster. That's too young. And Jeff Francouer might be a victim of the sophomore jinx. He had such a fine rookie half-season overall that not many realize that he faded badly in September, batting just .235. It doesn't help, either, that the Braves open the season with 16 of their first 22 games on the road.

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Philadelphia Phillies

2005: 88-74, second place, two games behind.

Manager: Charlie Manuel, second season.

Key newcomers: CF Aaron Rowand, INF Abraham Nunez, RHP Tom Gordon, RHP Ryan Franklin.

Key departures: 1B Jim Thome, LHP Billy Wagner, RHP Vicente Padilla, OF Kenny Lofton.

Possible batting order: SS Jimmy Rollins (.290, 12, 54), CF Aaron Rowand (.270, 13, 69), RF Bobby Abreu (.286, 24, 102), LF Pat Burrell (.281, 32, 117), 1B Ryan Howard (.288, 22, 63), 2B Chase Utley (.291, 28, 105), 3B David Bell (.248, 10, 61), C Mike Lieberthal (.263, 12, 47).

Rotation: RHP Jon Lieber (17-13, 4.20), RHP Brett Myers (13-8, 3.72), RHP Cory Lidle (13-11, 4.53), RHP Ryan Franklin (8-15, 5.10), RHP Ryan Madson (6-5, 4.14).

Closer: RHP Tom Gordon (2 saves, 2.57).

Should finish: Third. The Phillies over the previous five seasons posted victory totals of 86, 80, 86, 86 and 88. Pretty consistent. But not good enough to end their streak of 12 consecutive seasons without a postseason. That streak will not end this year. They were in contention for a wild-card berth until the final day of last season, but they won't enjoy that kind of excitement this season. New general manager Pat Gillick has a solid track record -- nine postseason visits in 24 years as a GM -- but he couldn't land a big-name starting pitcher during the winter to help a staff that was last in this division with a 4.21 earned run average in 2005. The only help the Phillies' staff received was the team's decision to move back and heighten the left field wall in home run-happy Citizens Bank Park. The bullpen, crippled by the loss of closer Billy Wagner, again will struggle. Tom Gordon inherits Wagner's job, but at age 38 Gordon might not be the answer. The Phillies do have the continuation of Jimmy Rollins' hit streak to anticipate. The shortstop ended 2005 with a 36-game streak, during which he hit .379.

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Washington Nationals

2005: 81-81, fifth place, nine games behind.

Manager: Frank Robinson, fifth season.

Key newcomers: RHP Brian Lawrence, INF Marlon Anderson, OF Damian Jackson, 2B Alfonso Soriano, 1B Robert Fick, LHP Mike Stanton, RHP Ramon Ortiz, SS Royce Clayton, OF Michael Tucker, 1B Daryle Ward.

Key departures: 3B Vinny Castilla, RHP Esteban Loaiza, RHP Hector Carrasco, OF Brad Wilkerson, INF Junior Spivey, OF Preston Wilson.

Possible batting order: CF Brandon Watson (.175, 1, 5), 2B Jose Vidro (.275, 7, 32), 1B Nick Johnson (.289, 15, 74), RF Jose Guillen (.283, 24, 76), LF Alfonso Soriano (.268, 36, 104), 3B Ryan Zimmerman (.397, 0, 6), C Brian Schneider (.268, 10, 44), SS Cristian Guzman (.219, 4, 31).

Rotation: RHP Livan Hernandez (15-10, 3.98), RHP John Patterson (9-7, 3.13), RHP Pedro Astacio (4-2, 3.17), RHP Ramon Ortiz (9-11, 5.36), RHP Tony Armas Jr. (7-7, 4.97).

Closer: RHP Chad Cordero (47 saves, 1.82).

Should finish: Fourth . They're not good enough to finish third and the Florida Marlins will keep them from finishing fifth. The Nationals led the National League with 30 one-run wins last season. Pretty good. But they also led the league in one-run losses with 31. Washington was a feel-good story the first three months of 2005, compiling a 51-32 record. But were 30-49 thereafter. Manager Frank Robinson, six victories short of 1,000 in his career, entered spring training with two second basemen, neither of whom wanted to change positions. Jose Vidro is entrenched at second, and the Nationals were forced to try to convince Alfonso Soriano to move to left field. One bright spot for the Nationals is Ryan Zimmerman, who made the jump from the amateur draft in June to the major leagues in September. Jose Guillen, who led the team in home runs and RBIs, is coming off surgery on his left shoulder and might be a slow starter. The Nationals don't get an early schedule break. They play 10 of their first 13 games on the road. The home "break" in there is a three-game series against the Mets.

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Florida Marlins

2005: 83-79, third place (tie), seven games behind.

Manager: Joe Girardi, first season

Key newcomers: 1B Mike Jacobs, SS Hanley Ramirez, RHP Sergio Mitre, RHP Joe Borowski, C Miguel Olivo, 3B Wes Helms.

Key departures: RHP Josh Beckett, 1B Carlos Delgago, CF Juan Pierre, SS Alex Gonzalez, 3B Mike Lowell, C Paul Lo Duca, RHP Guillermo Mota, RHP A.J. Burnett, 2B Luis Castillo, RHP Todd Jones, OF Juan Encarnacion, OF Jeff Conine.

Possible batting order: CF Eric Reed (.310, 1, 20 at Class AAA Albuquerque), LF Chris Aguila (.244, 0, 4), RF Jeremy Hermida (.293, 4, 11), 3B Miguel Cabrera (.323, 33, 116), 1B Mike Jacobs (.310, 11, 23), C Miguel Olivo (.304, 4, 16), SS Hanley Ramirez (.271, 6, 52 at Class AA Portland), 2B Dan Uggla (.297, 21, 87 for Class AA Tennessee).

Rotation: LHP Dontrelle Willis (22-10, 2.63), RHP Brian Moehler (6-12, 4.55), LHP Jason Vargas (5-5, 4.03), RHP Sergio Mitre (2-5, 5.37), RHP Josh Johnson (0-0, 3.65).

Closer: RHP Joe Borowski (0 saves, 4.47).

Should finish: Fifth. As many as six rookies could be in Florida's opening-day lineup after an offseason purge forced by finances. The Marlins won't have any trouble finding their immediate home -- last place -- while they continue to look for a new permanent home. New manager Joe Girardi, fresh from so much success with the New York Yankees, might be a fish out of water his rookie season as a manager. The Marlins conducted a similar roster cleaning after winning the 1997 World Series and finished 54-108 in '98. A similar crash will happen in 2006. The Marlins should get a quick start toward at least 100 losses. They're scheduled to play 15 of their first 21 games on the road.