Post-Gazette national baseball writer Paul Meyer breaks down the 2006 division races in the American League and offers his predictions(in order):

Toronto Blue Jays

2005: 80-82, third place, 15 games behind.

Manager: John Gibbons, second season.

Key newcomers: LHP B.J. Ryan, RHP A.J. Burnett, 1B Lyle Overbay, 3B Troy Glaus, C Benjie Molina.

Key departures: RHP Dave Bush, RHP Miguel Batista, 2B Orlando Hudson, 3B Corey Koskie.

Possible batting order: SS Russ Adams (.256, 8, 63), LF Frank Catalanotto (.301, 8, 59), CF Vernon Wells (.269, 28, 97), 3B Troy Glaus (.258, 37, 97), 1B Lyle Overbay (.276, 19, 72), DH Shea Hillenbrand (.291, 18, 82), RF Alex Rios (.262, 10, 59), C Benjie Molina (.295, 15, 69), 2B Aaron Hill, 2B (.274, 3, 40).

Rotation: RHP Roy Halladay (12-4, 2.41), RHP A.J. Burnett (12-12, 3.44), LHP Ted Lilly (10-11, 5.56), RHP Josh Towers (13-12, 3.71), LHP Gustavo Chacin (13-9, 3.72).

Closer: LHP B.J. Ryan (36 saves, 2.43).

Should finish: The alphabet game in Toronto goes something like this: With J.P. and A.J. and B.J., the Blue Jays are OK. And that could result in an F, as in First. General manager J.P. Ricciardi spent the offseason, well, spending. He brought in free agents A.J. Burnett for $55 million and B.J. Ryan for $47 million and Benjie Molina for a paltry $5 million. He also traded for Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus. Now the restructured Blue Jays, who had losing seasons in four of the past five years, seem perched to end the stranglehold the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have had on the top of this formidable division for the past decade. Last season, the Blue Jays had wins. Another 12 of 14 this year doesn't seem like a reach, and a victory total of 94 could be enough to send them ahead of the aging Yankees and the Red Sox . If starter Roy Halladay, who missed the final three months of the 2005 season because of a broken leg, pitches as he did in 2003 (22-7, 3.25) en route to winning the Cy Young award, Toronto's rotation will be far superior to anything the Yankees and Red Sox can muster.

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New York Yankees

2005: 95-67, first place, lost to Anaheim Angels in division series in five games.

Manager: Joe Torre, 11th season.

Key newcomers: CF Johnny Damon, RHP Kyle Farnsworth, LHP Mike Myers, RHP Octavio Dotel, C Kelly Stinnett.

Key departures: RHP Tom Gordon, 2B Tony Womack, OF Matt Lawton.

Possible batting order: CF Johnny Damon (.316, 10, 75), SS Derek Jeter (.309, 19, 70), 3B Alex Rodriguez (.321, 48, 130), 1B Jason Giambi (.271, 32, 87), RF Gary Sheffield (.291, 34, 123), LF Hideki Matsui (.305, 23, 116), C Jorge Posada (.262, 19, 71), 2B Robinson Cano (.297, 14, 62), DH Bernie Williams (.249, 12, 64).

Rotation: LHP Randy Johnson (17-8, 3.79), RHP Mike Mussina (13-8, 4.41), RHP Chien-Ming Wang (8-5, 4.02), RHP Shawn Chacon (7-3, 2.85), RHP Carl Pavano (4-6, 4.77).

Closer: RHP Mariano Rivera (43 saves, 1.38).

Should finish: Second, which could get them into the postseason for the 12th consecutive year, this time as a wild card. The Yankees were unusually quiet during the winter, making noise only when they pirated Johnny Damon from the Red Sox. Damon gives the Yankees a proven leadoff batter who has averaged a little more than 113 runs scored per season the past eight years. Damon will head a potentially spectacular offense, but the game always turns on pitching, especially in October. And the Yankees seemingly did nothing to upgrade their rotation, which seems to be an injury waiting to happen. Randy Johnson was 5-0 against Boston last season -- the first Yankee to turn that trick since Mel Stottlemyre was 5-0 against the Red Sox in 1965 -- but he allowed a career-high 32 home runs and his strikeouts per nine innings figure (8.42) was his lowest since 1990 . The Yankees still have baseball's top closer in Mariano Rivera, but let's not forget that even with him last season they needed a 16-5 finishing sprint to keep playing in October.

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Boston Red Sox

2005: 95-67, wild card, lost to Chicago White Sox in division series in three games.

Manager: Terry Francona, third season.

Key newcomers: RHP Josh Beckett, CF Coco Crisp, 3B Mike Lowell, 2B Mark Loretta, SS Alex Gonzalez, RHP Julian Tavarez, C John Flaherty, 1B J.T. Snow.

Key departures: CF Johnny Damon, SS Edgar Renteria, 3B Bill Mueller, 1B Kevin Millar, 1B John Olerud.

Possible batting order: CF Coco Crisp (.300, 16, 69), 2B Mark Loretta (.280, 3, 38), DH David Ortiz (.300, 47, 148), LF Manny Ramirez (.292, 45, 144), C Jason Varitek (.281, 22, 70), 3B Mike Lowell (.236, 8, 58), RF Trot Nixon (.275, 13, 67), 1B Kevin Youkilis (.278, 1, 9), SS Alex Gonzalez (.264, 5, 45).

Rotation: RHP Curt Schilling (8-8, 5.69), RHP Josh Beckett (15-8, 3.37), RHP Tim Wakefield (16-12, 4.15), RHP Matt Clement (13-6, 4.57), LHP David Wells (15-7, 4.45) or RHP Bronson Arroyo (14-10, 3.35).

Closer: RHP Keith Foulke (15 saves, 5.91).

Should finish: Third. Boston's longest-running drama in the offseason obsessed about "Theo, Theo, wherefore art thou?" When former and now current general manager Theo Epstein emerged from his getaway gorilla costume and resumed control of the Red Sox, the situation improved, but this is a team that has problems in its rotation that simply adding Josh Beckett won't solve and a bullpen that might have to be fixed on the fly if closer Keith Foulke falters. And that "Manny being Manny" mantra is becoming quite tiresome. The Red Sox will miss Johnny Damon, although Coco Crisp's on-base percentage numbers are similar. Crisp last season had a .345 mark, just over his career .332 figure. Damon's numbers: .366 and .353. The Red Sox would love for Crisp to take up right where he left off. Over the final 29 games last season, he hit .331 with six home runs, 16 RBIs and 18 runs scored for Cleveland. Boston signed Alex Gonzalez to replace suddenly defensively-challenged Edgar Renteria (30 errors in '05) at shortstop. Boston's pitching, though, will be its Achilles' heel. It won't be another 86 years before the Red Sox win again, but it won't be this year, either.

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Tampa Bay Devil Rays

2005: 67-95, fifth place, 28 games behind.

Manager: Joe Maddon, first season.

Key newcomers: 3B Sean Burroughs, INF Ty Wigginton, RHP Edwin Jackson.

Key departures: RHP Joe Borowski, RHP Danys Baez.

Possible batting order: LF Carl Crawford (.301, 15, 81), SS Julio Lugo (.295, 6, 57), 2B Jorge Cantu (.286, 28, 117), RF Aubrey Huff (.261, 22, 92), DH Jonny Gomes (.282, 21, 54), CF Rocco Baldelli (injured all of 2005), 1B Travis Lee (.272, 12, 49), 3B Sean Burroughs (.250, 1, 17), C Toby Hall (.287, 5, 48).

Rotation: LHP Scott Kazmir (10-9, 3.77), LHP Casey Fossum (8-12, 4.92), LHP Mark Hendrickson (11-8, 5.90), RHP Seth McClung (7-11, 6.59), RHP Doug Waechter (5-12, 5.62).

Closer: RHP Chad Orvella (1 save, 3.60).

Should finish: Fourth. The Devil Rays switched ownership, but what they really should have switched is divisions. That old saw about there being nowhere to go but up doesn't apply in the American League East. In this division, there's nowhere to go period. Still, the Devil Rays could pass the bumbling Baltimore Orioles and finish fourth, which is better than nothing. What the Devil Rays don't want to do is simply catch the Orioles. Tampa Bay has had eight consecutive seasons of 90-plus defeats. That's the longest such streak since the Orioles, who were the St. Louis Browns for part of the time, lost 90-plus games in nine consecutive seasons (1947-55). If you absolutely love misery, the major-league record is 10 (Philadelphia, 1936-45). The Devil Rays continue to acquire and/or develop outstanding young players and pitchers -- Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton , Scott Kazmir -- but to what end?

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Baltimore Orioles

2005: 74-88, fourth place, 21 games behind.

Manager: Sam Perlozzo, first season.

Key newcomers: Pitching coach Leo Mazzone, RHP Kris Benson , C Ramon Hernandez, 1B Jeff Conine, RHP LaTroy Hawkins, LF Kevin Millar, OF Corey Patterson.

Key departures: LHP B.J. Ryan, 1B Rafael Palmeiro, OF Sammy Sosa, LHP Steve Kline, RHP Sidney Ponson, OF Eric Byrnes.

Possible batting order: 2B Brian Roberts (.314,18, 73), LF Kevin Millar (.272, 9, 50), 3B Melvin Mora (.283, 27, 88), SS Miguel Tejada (.304, 26, 98), RF Jay Gibbons (.277, 26, 79), C Javy Lopez (.278, 15, 49), 1B Jeff Conine (.304, 3, 33), C Ramon Hernandez (.290, 12, 58), CF Corey Patterson (.215, 13, 34).

Rotation: RHP Rodrigo Lopez (15-12, 4.90), RHP Kris Benson (10-8, 4.13), RHP Daniel Cabrera (10-13, 4.52), LHP Erik Bedard (6-8, 4.00), LHP Bruce Chen (13-10, 3.83).

Closer: RHP Chris Ray (0 saves, 2.66).

Should finish: Fifth. New pitching coach Leo Mazzone quickly will learn that this pitching staff is a far cry from those guys he tutored so well and for so long in Atlanta. Still, Mazzone's presence and ability is bound to help a bunch of pitchers who have potential . It will be interesting to see if Mazzone can do anything for Kris Benson, who still hasn't justified the faith the Pirates showed in him by making him the No. 1 pick overall in the 1996 amateur draft. At age 31, Benson is running out of time to blossom . New catcher Ramon Hernandez, who has a reputation of being great with a pitching staff, will be a help to Mazzone. New center fielder Corey Patterson, who ran afoul of expectations and the fans with the Chicago Cubs, perhaps can jump-start his career at Camden Yards. Other than that, Baltimore fans will have to be content watching Miguel Tejada extend his consecutive games played streak, which will stand at 918 on opening day.