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PrintPost-Gazette national baseball writer Paul Meyer breaks down the 2006 division races in the American League and offers his predictions(in order):
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2005: 95-67, first place, lost to Chicago White Sox in League Championship Series in five games.
Manager: Mike Scioscia, seventh season.
Key newcomers: RHP Jeff Weaver, 3B Edgardo Alfonzo, RHP Hector Carrasco, LHP J.C. Romero.
Key departures: C Benjie Molina, RHP Paul Byrd, LHP Jarrod Washburn, OF Steve Finley.
Possible batting order: CF Chone Figgins (.290, 8, 57), SS Orlando Cabrera (.257, 8, 57), RF Vladimir Guerrero (.317, 32, 108), LF Garret Anderson (.283, 17, 96), DH Casey Kotchman (.278, 7, 22), 1B Darin Erstad (.273, 7, 66), 3B Dallas McPherson (.244, 8, 26), C Jeff Mathis (.276, 21, 73 with Class AAA Salt Lake City), 2B Adam Kennedy (.300, 2, 37).
Rotation: RHP Bartolo Colon (21-8, 3.48), RHP John Lackey (14-5, 3.44), RHP Jeff Weaver (14-11, 4.22), RHP Ervin Santana (12-8, 4.65), RHP Hector Carrasco (5-4, 2.04).
Closer: RHP Francisco Rodriguez (45 saves, 2.67).
Should finish: First, with this caveat: The West Division of the American League could wind up being just as competitive as the National League East was last season. In that five-team grouping, only nine games separated first-place Atlanta from fifth place Washington, and every team finished .500 or better. So the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim could win this division by fewer games than the number of words in their official name. Last season, the Angels had to hold off pesky Oakland down the stretch, and they might have to contend with more than one team in late September this season. That said, any team that has Vladimir Guerrero in right field and Bartolo Colon as its rotation anchor will be solid. The Angels, whose rotation matched Chicago's 3.75 earned run average for lowest in the AL, lost starters Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd to free agency, but signed Hector Carrasco for the back of their rotation and Jeff Weaver for the middle. And they'll get a full season from 2005 wunderkind Ervin Santana. Chone Figgins provides that rarity in baseball these days -- speed at the top of the order. Last season, Figgins had a major-league high 62 stolen bases, a large reason the Angels also led the major leagues with 161.
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2005: 88-74, second place, seven games behind.
Manager: Ken Macha, fourth season.
Key newcomers: RHP Esteban Loaiza, OF Milton Bradley, DH Frank Thomas.
Key departures: LHP Ricardo Rincon, RHP Octavio Dotel, DH Erubiel Durazo.
Possible batting order: C Jason Kendall (.271, 0, 53), CF Mark Kotsay (.280, 15, 82), SS Bobby Crosby (.276, 9, 38), 3B Eric Chavez (.269, 27, 101), DH Frank Thomas (.219, 12, 26), RF Milton Bradley (.290, 13, 38), 2B Mark Ellis (.316, 13, 52), 1B Dan Johnson, 1B (.275, 15, 58), LF Nick Swisher (.236, 21, 74).
Rotation: LHP Barry Zito (14-13, 3.86), RHP Rich Harden (10-5, 2.53), RHP Esteban Loaiza (12-10, 3.77), RHP Dan Haren (14-12, 3.73), RHP Joe Blanton (12-12, 3.53).
Closer: RHP Huston Street (23 saves, 1.72).
Should finish: Second. Oakland's victory total the past four seasons has dropped from 103 to 96 to 91 to 88, which, of course, is not good. However, this team didn't lose much in the offseason and did pick up Esteban Loaiza to be one bookend of a rotation that features Barry Zito at the other end and includes youngsters Rich Harden, Joe Blanton and Dan Haren. The Athletics, as always, need to find a way to get off to a better start. They were 15 games under .500 in late May but went 58-24 over a three-month run to get into position to worry the Angels. The past six seasons, Oakland is 284-160 after the All-Star break, the best second-half record in the major leagues. Some projected lineups have Jason Kendall batting ninth with Mark Ellis first, but Kendall did lead Oakland in stolen bases last season with eight, so he's batting first here. If he has anything left, Frank Thomas should help a lineup which ranked ninth in the league in home runs. Thomas has 448 career home runs. The Athletics will keep close eyes on the health of Bobby Crosby, who missed 78 games because of injuries. With Crosby in their lineup, the Athletics were 55-29. Without him, they were 33-45.
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2005: 79-83, third place, 16 games behind.
Manager: Buck Showalter, fourth season.
Key newcomers: RHP Kevin Millwood, RHP Vicente Padilla, CF Brad Wilkerson, RHP Adam Eaton, RHP Akinori, Otsuka.
Key departures: LHP Kenny Rogers, C Sandy Alomar Jr., 2B Alfonso Soriano, RHP Chris Young, 1B Adrian Gonzalez.
Possible batting order: CF Brad Wilkerson (.248, 11, 57), SS Michael Young (.331, 24, 91), 1B Mark Teixeira (.301, 43, 144), 3B Hank Blalock (.263, 25, 92), LF David Dellucci (.251, 29, 65), RF Kevin Mench (.264, 25, 73), DH Phil Nevin (.237, 12, 55), C Rod Barajas (.254, 21, 60), 2B Ian Kinsler (.274, 23, 94 at Class AAA Oklahoma City).
Rotation: RHP Kevin Millwood (9-11, 2.86), RHP Adam Eaton (11-5, 4.27), RHP Vicente Padilla (9-12, 4.71), RHP Kameron Loe (9-6, 3.42), RHP Juan Dominguez (4-6, 4.22).
Closer: RHP Francisco Cordero (37 saves, 3.39).
Should finish: Third. The Rangers are familiar with finishing third in a competitive race. Two seasons ago, they won 89 games and finished third. Seemingly always plagued by poor pitching -- the Rangers' earned run average of 4.96 was 12th in the AL last season -- Texas sought to bolster its rotation by acquiring Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton and Kevin Millwood, who led the league in ERA (2.86). The Rangers handed Millwood a five-year deal that could be worth as much as $60 million and hope he doesn't turn into another Chan Ho Park. The Rangers have plenty of offense again, but they keep learning that simply bashing the ball -- they led the majors with 260 home runs in 2005 -- isn't enough. Perhaps the addition of walk maven Brad Wilkerson, who has a career on-base percentage of .365, will help diversify the offense. Ian Kinsler, 23, is a probable Rookie of the Year candidate based on his numbers for Oklahoma City.
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2005: 69-93, 63-99, fourth place, 26 games behind.
Manager: Mike Hargrove, second season.
Key newcomers: DH Carl Everett, LHP Jarrod Washburn, OF Matt Lawton, C Kenji Johjima.
Key departures: RHP Ryan Franklin, C Dan Wilson.
Possible batting order: RF Ichiro Suzuki (.303, 15, 68), CF Jeremy Reed (.254, 3, 45), 3B Adrian Beltre (.255, 19, 87), 1B Richie Sexson (2.63, 39, 121), LF Raul Ibanez (.280, 20, 89), C Kenji Johjima (.309, 24, 57 in Japan), DH Carl Everett (.251, 23, 87), 2B Jose Lopez (.247, 2, 25), SS Yuniesky Betancourt (.256, 1, 15).
Rotation: LHP Jamie Moyer (13-7, 4.28), LHP Jarrod Washburn (8-8, 3.20), RHP Joel Pineiro (7-11, 5.62), RHP Gil Meche (10-8, 5.09), RHP Felix Hernandez (4-4, 2.67).
Closer: LHP Eddie Guardado (36 saves, 2.72).
Should finish: Fourth. The Mariners could be the best fourth-place team in the major leagues. In 2001, they won 116 games. They hope they bottomed out in their rapid descent from that lofty perch with their 69 wins last season. Bringing in Jarrod Washburn will help a rotation that received a boost last season when Felix Hernandez, still only 19 years old, arrived Aug. 4. The rotation is capably backed by Eddie Guardado, who last season set a team record by converting 27 consecutive save opportunities. Reports are that Ichiro has grown tired of the Mariners' losing ways -- perhaps his huge falloff from .372 in 2004 to a .303 batting average last season is an indication of that -- so it behooves the Mariners to become contenders again. Ichiro has five 200-hit seasons in a row. If he makes it six, he'll be one behind Wade Boggs, who holds the modern record of seven consecutive 200-hit seasons. Wee Willie Keeler had eight in a row, beginning in 1894. Ichiro will have some good company this season. The Mariners signed Kenji Johjima from Japan to succeed fan favorite Dan Wilson, who retired, behind the plate.
