Senior citizens and those approaching that state of life can look back to the good, old days -- the 1970s -- and remember when the baseball question in Pittsburgh every spring was this:

Can the Pirates win the pennant?

Sometimes, they did, and almost always they made a run at it. It was a great time to be a Pirates fan.

With the 2006 baseball season at hand, not even the most cockeyed optimist would consider raising that question. It's not even a subject worthy of discussion among the most diehard of fans. Sadly, the most-asked question concerning the Pirates' chances is the same one that has been raised for more than a decade.

Can they finish above .500?

It's not much of an ambition, but it's all the Pirates have. After 13 consecutive losing seasons, in which their average finish was 16 games under .500, this franchise, understandably, doesn't dream big.

But as sad as that annual question is, the answer this year is sadder.

No, the Pirates won't play .500 baseball this season.

The team is making strides, as well it should after having been so bad for so long. But it doesn't appear to be ready to win.

Passionate Pirates fans, who see superstar talent in every minor-leaguer who gets a nice story in the newspaper, will challenge such a statement. They'll proclaim this is a young team ready to win.

Forget for a minute, though, the team's level of talent and, instead, consider the talent in the rest of the Central Division. In evaluating any team, the strength of its opposition also must be taken into consideration. That's particularly true in this era of the unbalanced schedule where teams play most of their games within their division.

In 1969, the Pirates were 88-74 and finished in third place, which resulted in their manager being fired. The next year, they were 89-73 -- an improvement of one game. But they finished in first place -- because the division was weaker -- and Danny Murtaugh was named manager of the year.

Since '98, when Milwaukee left the American League and joined the National League Central to form a six-team division with the Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds, no team that finished lower than third has finished above .500. Fourth-place teams in the Central over the past the past eight years have been, on average, 14 games under .500.

So the question isn't can the Pirates finish at .500, but can they finish in third place? If they can't, history tells us they can't get to .500.

The Pirates finished sixth in the Central last season, six games behind the fifth-place Reds and 12 behind the fourth-place Cubs. That's a lot of ground to make up just to get to fourth, let alone third, where the Brewers were 81-81 and 14 games in front of the Pirates.

It's possible, the Pirates can surpass the Reds, who are still pitching-deficient despite the acquisitions of Dave Williams and Bronson Arroyo. But there's nothing to indicate the Pirates can move past any other team in the Central.

The Pirates believe they've beefed up their offense, but the middle of their batting order doesn't match up well against most of the teams in their division.

Consider these likely middle-of-the-lineup combinations around the division:

Pirates: Jason Bay, Jeromy Burnitz, Sean Casey.

Cincinnati: Ken Griffey, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns.

Houston: Lance Berkman, Morgan Ensberg, Preston Wilson.

Chicago: Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Jacque Jones.

St. Louis: Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds.

Milwaukee: Carlos Lee, Geoff Jenkins, Prince Fielder.

The Pirates look like another weak offensive team with highly questionable pitching. The starting rotation will have three pitchers with less than a year of major-league experience. They're all talented, but the other teams in the division have more proven winners in their rotation.

All is not lost. The Pirates are moving in the right direction. Their minor-league system, after years of famine, is starting to produce. We see that with the young starters, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ian Snell. Sean Burnett and Tom Gorzelanny were sent back to the minors, but both could offer help next year, if not later this year.

A nucleus is developing that could produce a winner in the years ahead. The team has some young offensive players, led by Bay, who could make a formidable lineup in the years ahead.

But for 2006, they're the same old Pirates.