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Stats Geek: Lineup toy gives Pirates a changeup
Tuesday, March 14, 2006

With the possible exception of whittling, no pastime is as easy, fun and irrelevant as trying to construct a lineup for a chronically bad ballclub.

It takes no real skill, but you can spend countless hours doing it, and now it's easier than ever. Lineup construction, that is, not whittling.

"Steve's Lineup Toy" will pop up if you Google the Internet. Who "Steve" is I can't say, but his toy provides a succinct critique of the Pirates' batting order.

The toy works this way: Choose a year, pick nine players and then click "suggest lineup." Steve bats the player with best OPS (on-base average plus slugging average) in the third spot. The best remaining slugging average bats fourth. The best remaining on-base averages bat first and second, with the better slugger batting second. The rest bat in order of slugging averages.

Lineup theory can be argued into the night (provided you're as dull as I am) but this method has rare clarity and logic. Make sure your best hitter gets up in the first inning, and maximize the likelihood that he sees runners on base After that, slug, slug, slug until the pitcher hits.

Punch in the 2005 averages for the probable Pirates regulars and you get this batting order:

Name OBA SLG
Sean Casey 371 423
Chris Duffy 385 429
Jason Bay 402 559
Joe Randa 335 452
Jeromy Burnitz 322 435
Jose Castillo 307 416
Ryan Doumit 324 398
Jack Wilson 299 363
 

The word you're seeking begins with a "y" and rhymes with "strikes." Casey can't lead off. He's slow. Not as slow as Pennsylvania legislative reform, but slower than your average ballplayer. And Randa is a right-handed singles hitter who should bat anywhere but fourth.

That said, Steve isn't blogging from Mount Sinai so we don't have to treat his toy as if it were etching lineups in stone. Jiggle this order and it makes a little more sense.

Name OBA SLG
Chris Duffy 385 429
Sean Casey 371 423
Jason Bay 402 559
Jeromy Burnitz 322 435
Joe Randa 335 452
Jose Castillo 307 416
Ryan Doumit 324 398
Jack Wilson 299 363
 

I flipped Duffy and Casey, and did likewise with Burnitz and Randa. This is not my St. Patrick's Day plot to make sure Irish guys always get up first. It's the acceptance of a stark reality that Pirates management is not eager to acknowledge:

Though Casey is a 6-foot-4, 215-pound first baseman, he doesn't hit like one.

Casey averages only 18 home runs per 162 games. His considerable skills are hitting for average and getting on base, with career averages of .305 and .371, respectively. So instead of wishing he were a power hitter, why not play to his strengths?

If Duffy gets on, the hole on the right side of the infield opens for a left-handed hitter like Casey.

Casey doesn't strike out much -- only once every 11 AB, sixth best in the National League last year. His 1:1 ratio of walks to strikeouts (48 and 48) was eighth best. That's not a lot of walks, but his frequency beats Jack Wilson and Randa, two other candidates for the No. 2 spot.

Casey's problem is grounding into double plays. He led the NL last year with 27. But Duffy flying over to third on one of Casey's many singles is a pleasing image. They'd make a good hit-and-run tandem, if manager Jim Tracy likes that option.

Most important, the Pirates would optimize Bay's chance of finding at least one man on base when he walks to the plate. The Pirates can't be sure what they have in Duffy. More than 100 points of his .341 average last season were in his legs. Thirteen of his 43 hits didn't leave the infield. If Duffy's hamstring problems slow him, or if he doesn't get the same bounces, the Pirates' lineup is in more trouble.

The best way to ensure Bay sees pitches to hit is to have a runner on first. Pitchers don't purposely walk anyone into scoring position. In Casey's worst season, his on-base average was .334. That's just one point lower than Jack Wilson's best season.

Casey is a top-notch No. 2 hitter miscast as a power hitter. This lineup would give Tracy the lefty-righty-lefty order he wants with Casey, Bay and Burnitz and would have the best hitters getting the most plate appearances.

After that, everyone needs to hit better than last year. When I substituted Jack Wilson's .459 slugging average in 2004 for his 2005 number, he wound up batting cleanup.

Yikes.

First published on March 14, 2006 at 12:00 am
Brian O'Neill can be reached at boneill@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1947.