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Swann part of the rise of black Republicans
Monday, March 06, 2006

Lynn Swann launched his campaign amid the artifacts of the Heinz History Center. Now, the man who would be the state's first African-American governor hopes to reshape the patterns of political history.

Carolyn Kaster, Associated Press
Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann
Click photo for larger image.


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On its cross-state announcement tour, the Swann campaign made its Philadelphia debut not in the city's Republican suburbs, the largest trove of GOP votes in the state, but at the Hope Mission Ministries, a community center in an inner city neighborhood that probably hadn't voted for a Republican in Mr. Swann's lifetime. Aides said the stop demonstrated their ability to challenge Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell for the votes of one of his party's most loyal constituencies.

November's tally will prove that boast accurate or hollow, but already, Mr. Swann's candidacy has helped give life -- if not yet proof -- to the narrative national GOP leaders are trying to present as a new Republican story, a tale of a party unwilling to cede any demographic groups to Democrats, one not content with monochromatic victories.

During last summer's Republican National Committee meeting in Pittsburgh, at a time when the GOP governor's race was still in flux, Ken Mehlman, the RNC chairman, was already holding out the Swann candidacy as an emblem of a changing party.

Tara Wall, the RNC's director of outreach communications, noted that Mr. Mehlman had made minority inclusion a priority of his tenure, meeting with scores of minority audiences across the country, and establishing new training programs for prospective minority candidates. And she pointed out that Mr. Swann, while perhaps the most prominent, is only one of a list of high-profile black candidates appearing on GOP ballots in statewide elections across the country.

In Maryland, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is the GOP's candidate for the U.S. Senate. Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is a candidate for governor. Jennette Bradley, the Ohio state treasurer, is seeking another term in her post. In Michigan, Keith Butler, a Detroit minister, is a candidate for U.S. Senate, and, in New York, Randy Daniels, a former secretary of state, is seeking the GOP nomination to succeed Gov. George Pataki.

"This is historic for Democrats or Republicans to have this many African-American candidates," Ms. Walls maintained. "This shows that Democrats can't take the black vote for granted. ... Many younger blacks are independents, and that gives us an opportunity."

Ms. Wall acknowledged, however, that the GOP's message of inclusion and Mr. Mehlman's community conversations had been clouded by the images of black New Orleans residents ill-served by the federal government in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Rep. Jake Wheatley, D-Hill District, agreed with her observation that many younger blacks were more independent than their parents. But he disputed the notion that the trend presaged a long-term drift away from the Democrats.

"You see the more senior African-Americans being more loyal to the Democratic Party," he said. "You do see a younger African-American population that is more independent, a lot more of them register as independents. But when you peel it back to their core issues -- education, housing, jobs -- you see a voting pattern that is more Democratic."

The higher-profile black candidates offer contrasts as well as similarities. Mr. Swann, Mr. Steele and Mr. Blackwell are all social conservatives, strongly anti-abortion. After his lightning march to capture the GOP nomination, Mr. Swann met some stumbling blocks, with the revelation of his spotty voting record and with a lackluster performance in his most high-profile interview to date, an appearance with George Stephanopoulos on ABC.

Mr. Steele's candidacy also showed evidence of a relative lack of political seasoning. Mr. Steele, whose election track record was compiled solely as the junior ticket mate to Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich, faced criticism when, in off-the-cuff remarks before a Jewish audience, he compared stem cell research to Nazi medical experiments. Like Mr. Swann, Mr. Steele compensated for a relatively short political resume with the support of key leaders of the state and national GOP.

Mr. Blackwell stands apart for his longer political record and more confrontational stance toward some members of his state's GOP establishment. The former Cincinnati councilman and mayor hopes to succeed Gov. Bob Taft, who is heading toward the close of his career in the face of a storm of controversy.

Mr. Swann's competition with his rivals for the nomination -- former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and state Sen. Jeff Piccola -- was relatively civil. Mr. Blackwell, by contrast, showed his willingness to pursue intra-party conflict with ads that claim that the ethics of his GOP opponent, Attorney General Jim Petro, are "worse than Taft's."

Mr. Blackwell's electoral track record offers encouragement for some fellow candidates such as Mr. Swann. While precise estimates vary, he is credited with attracting a significantly higher share of the African-American vote than is traditional in his state.

"No one that I've talked to thinks these [African-American] candidates can attract even anything approaching a majority, but if they can attract even 25 or 35 percent, that would make a crucial difference." said Dr. John Green, the director of the Ray Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron.

Mr. Green pointed out that Mr. Blackwell had met or surpassed those levels in his previous statewide races but cautioned that, "When he's been on the ballot before, it's been in a down-ballot race. It's a little bit hard to tell what his experience will be when he runs for the top job."

Mr. Green said that while African-American voters, like members of other ethnic groups, feel an affinity with a candidate perceived as one of their own, Mr. Blackwell and other African-American Republicans face a ceiling imposed by black voters who generally have more liberal views on economic issues.

In an analysis of Allegheny County voting patterns in several recent elections, Christopher P. Briem, an economist with the University of Pittsburgh's Center for Social and Urban Research, found that party, rather than race, was a more accurate guide to the voting preferences of African Americans.

"If the Republican Party is going to become more appealing and accessible to the minority community, they're going to have to do more than change the faces of their candidates," said Ken Snyder, a Democratic consultant. "They're going to have to actually change their policies, which have been downright hostile to the urban centers where so many African Americans live."

But one Republican strategist argued that any measurable inroad into the Democrats' minority support, even if Mr. Rendell still held onto the bulk of the African-Americans voters, could be fatal to the Democrat's re-election.

"If [Mr. Swann] got 18 to 25 percent [of black voters], he would be elected governor," the Republican said.

Mr. Wheatley, the Hill District Democrat, who is an African American, said that he didn't expect that level of support to be within the Republican's grasp in Pennsylvania.

"Democrats can't take black votes for granted; African Americans are like any other group. You have to appeal to them on reason and issues, but do I think Swann can get 20 percent or 30 percent? No, I don't think so."

But if economic issues have been a barrier to Republican inroads among black voters, the experience of Mr. Blackwell suggests that social issues, notably abortion, present an opportunity to build bridges to the church groups traditionally influential in black politics.

Mr. Green noted that African-American Protestants are typically more conservative on social issues than white, non-evangelical Protestants.

"Because he talks a lot about his faith and moral values, that does help him with black congregations," Mr. Green said of the Ohio Republican. "African-American Protestants tend to be quite conservative on those kinds of issues. They tend to be more open on school vouchers; they share with many whites criticism of the popular culture."

Mr. Green cautioned, however, that this year's roster of black Republican candidates does not signal the attainment of some new critical mass in African-American political allegiance.

"There's an awful lot of talk about the rise of black Republicans; you do see that at the elite levels and that's why it's being written about," he said. "But we don't see much of that [trend] in the broader population. What we need to do watch is to see to what extent Republicans can translate that into the mass level. That's much harder to do; those kinds of changes take a long time."

First published on March 6, 2006 at 12:00 am
Politics Editor James O'Toole can be reached at jotoole@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1562.
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