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Stats Geek: SS Wilson's glove work is first rate
Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Pirates gloves should be better this year, particularly at first base and in center field, and no glaring weaknesses appear anywhere.

Yet the conversation about the Pirates' defense must begin with shortstop Jack Wilson, whose horrific start with the stick last year obscured a career year with the glove.

Wilson led all major-league shortstops in assists, total chances and double plays last season, career highs in all but the last. His .982 fielding percentage was likewise a career high and fourth in baseball. The National League Gold Glove went to the San Francisco Giants' Omar Vizquel, but Wilson and two or three others were at least as deserving.

Here's the kicker. Wilson not only led all shortstops in DPs in each of the past two seasons, but he also has been more prolific in that span than almost any shortstop ever.

Wilson set the DP record for Pirates shortstops with 129 in 2004. He topped Gene Alley by one and matched the eighth-best mark in baseball history. That came while working with a series of second basemen, none of them named Bill Mazeroski. Wilson followed up with 126 last year.

Research on baseball-reference.com suggests Wilson's two-year total of 255 DPs has been topped only by Rick Burleson of the Boston Red Sox (256 in 1979 and '80), Lou Boudreau of the Cleveland Indians (256 in 1943 and '44) and Roy Smalley Jr. of the Minnesota Twins (265 in 1978 and '79).

Wilson's 516 DPs through his age 27 season also put him in select company. Boudreau, Miguel Tejada and Rafael Furcal had more at that age, and there could be others, but I found no shortstop with more double plays in his first five seasons.

I know what some are thinking. DPs are dependent on the pitcher doing something wrong in the first place, putting a man on, so fielders can do something right in the second place. Pirates pitchers had the worst strikeout-to-walk ratio in the National League (1.57-1) in 2005, and so a lot of DP opportunities were created.

Baseball Prospectus accounts for that with its "Net DP." It compares double plays to DP opportunities, and finds that the Pirates turned 26 more double plays last year than the average team would have, given the same chances. Only the St. Louis Cardinals, with 50 Net DP, were better. Not coincidentally, the Cardinals and Pirates also finished 1-2 in total DP, 196 to 193.

Wilson is not the sole reason for the DPs. Second baseman Jose Castillo, with 93 DPs in 99 games, was a critical factor before going down in August with a knee injury. (Castillo is said to have fully recovered.) His quick pivot at second helped Pirates third basemen make 45 DP, tying the Cardinals' 3B for the most in baseball.

It will be hard for Joe Randa to improve on the way Freddy Sanchez played third last year. Sanchez tied for ninth among NL third basemen with 19 DPs, despite only 55 starts there. Randa had just two more DPs in 85 more starts. Sanchez also had a higher fielding percentage (.977 to .967) and more range (3.18 plays made per nine innings to 2.61).

That only shows how well Sanchez played, because Randa's fielding percentage was third among the nine third basemen with at least 1,000 innings. Randa's Zone Rating, a measurement by STATS Inc. of the balls fielded by a player in his zone, was also third among NL regulars, if still short of Sanchez (.801 to .842).

Either man beats Ty Wigginton, who had more errors (9) than double plays (5) in 36 starts.

Across the diamond at first, Sean Casey made only two errors last season, and his zone rating was third among the league's regular first basemen. Casey should be considerably better than Daryle Ward or Brad Eldred, who combined for 13 errors last season.

In center field, fans should watch Chris Duffy's hamstrings more closely than any outside of a Jessica Simpson video. If his hammies hold, Duffy will cover more ground than any Pirates outfielder of the recent past. You don't need stats to show that, though they would.

In right field, Jeromy Burnitz should be a better right fielder than Matt Lawton was in 2005. The stats also suggest Craig Wilson is a decent right fielder, though few fans believe it.

If this column ended light on numbers, that's because different rating systems offer conflicting verdicts. What a guy does with a glove is much harder to quantify than what he does with his bat, but the Pirates' defense looks pretty good.

Next week, I'll look at the catchers and at how Duffy makes Jason Bay a better outfielder.

First published on February 22, 2006 at 12:00 am
Brian O'Neill can be reached at boneill@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1947.