If the local housing scene could be described with one word last year, it would be "flat.'' Home construction slipped a bit, while home sales rose a bit, new figures show.
It could have been worse, particularly on the housing construction front. Thanks to a rush of year-end projects, new housing construction took off the final three months of the year, setting a blistering pace that almost made up for three quarters of lackluster activity.
And while home sales were flat -- sales including homes under agreement were up only 100 to 24,351 in the seven counties of Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland -- the average selling price rose 3 percent to $147,964, according to West Penn Multi List Inc., which tracks local sales activity.
Nationally, home sales have been slowing, too, worrying some economists who fear a corresponding drop in consumer spending for such things as appliances and furniture to fill their new digs could slow overall growth.
The slowdown has coincided with rising mortgage rates, which despite falling in recent weeks to 6.10 on 30-year mortgages are still up nearly three quarters of a point from a year ago, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac.
Many economists believe the higher rates will cool the booming housing market that has seen construction of single-family homes and sales of both new and existing homes soar to record levels.
Buttressing that view was yesterday's report from the Commerce Department showing that construction of new homes and apartments dropped a sharp 8.9 percent in December.
In some ways, the local home construction market has been acting in reverse of national trends.
While the rest of the country was booming, housing starts for the first nine months of last year in the seven-county region were down more than 14 percent from the year-ago period, according to North Hills construction research firm Tall Timber Marketing.
But in the last quarter, new construction ran nearly a third higher than in 2004, allowing the region to end the year with only a 3.3 percent decline. "At the end of the third quarter, I went on record saying that the fourth quarter wouldn't be strong enough to catch up," said Tall Timber owner Jeff Burd. "I'm happy to say I was dead wrong."
Nationally, last month's 8.9 percent drop in housing starts to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.93 million was more than double the decline that analysts had been forecasting. It was blamed in part on wet and cold weather in December, which followed an unseasonably warm November when builder activity had risen by 3.4 percent.
But even with the December swoon, it was a big year. Construction of single-family homes set a record last year of 1.714 million units, up 6.4 percent from the previous record set in 2004. And construction on single-family homes and apartments together reached 2.064 million units, the second-highest level on record, exceeded only by 2.356 million units built in 1972.
Analysts said that the big drop in housing construction in December was a signal that activity will slow in the coming year.
"We had expected to see a slowdown and this confirms it," said Michael Carliner, senior economist at the National Association of Home Builders.
Mr. Carliner said he expects construction of new homes and apartments to drop by about 6.5 percent in 2006, with sales of new homes falling by a similar amount. He also projects that home prices, which have been rising at double-digit rates, will slow to increases of around 5 percent in 2006.