John Beale, Post-Gazette PATERNO-VILLE -- Although they don't know who Penn State will play or what Bowl it will be in, Penn State students Kirstin Tawse, left, and Natasha Tirko, both juniors from State College, join about 20 other tents belonging to fans camped outside the Bryce Jordan Center to buy bowl game tickets. The tents started going up Sunday. Students will be given wristbands Dec. 7 and tickets will be on sale the next day. Penn State will find out what bowl it will play in Sunday. Click photo for larger image.

Close is the catch-all phrase for this parade of computation. The most recent weekend featured several close-call matchups that few expected to produce such drama; yesterday delivered another rendition of the Bowl Championship Series standings, with No. 3 Penn State closing nearer, at least fractionally, to the top; and now, the upcoming week will draw the Nittany Lions closer to their final postseason fate.

In the latest BCS rankings, the Lions (10-1) are still third, trailing Division I-A's two remaining undefeated teams -- No. 1 Southern California (11-0) and No. 2 Texas (11-0). The Trojans and Longhorns play Saturday in contests that will largely determine Penn State's bowl destination. Texas plays 7-4 Colorado in the Big 12 championship game, beginning at 1 p.m. and televised on WTAE. Then, USC plays host to 9-1 UCLA, 12th in the BCS, in a 4:30 p.m. contest, also on WTAE.

USC and Texas remain heavy favorites to win Saturday and then meet in the Rose Bowl for the national championship. Still, that likelihood won't deter the Lions from favoring an upset, because they are positioned to assume the No. 2 BCS position -- and a spot in the Rose Bowl -- if Texas or USC falls.

Here's the reasoning, beginning with the least complicated.

LSU is essentially out of the national championship picture.

BCS Standings Table: 11/8/05

Before the weekend, some BCS experts believed LSU, ranked fourth in the BCS, might vault Penn State by the end of the regular season. On Saturday, though, LSU defeated Arkansas only narrowly, 19-17. Before that game, Penn State already sat atop the Tigers by a comfortable margin in the six computer polls incorporated in the BCS formula. LSU, though, ranked ahead of Penn State -- the Tigers were third; the Lions were fourth -- in both BCS-incorporated human polls, the Harris Interactive and the USA Today. One close game at Tiger Stadium hurt LSU, because the Tigers have fallen to fourth in the Harris poll. They still play Saturday against Georgia in the SEC championship, but even a lopsided win is unlikely to help.

"LSU still had a shot [to overtake Penn State] going into last week," ESPN's BCS analyst Brad Edwards said yesterday, "but in order for them to get over Penn State in the BCS, they would have had to increase their margin over Penn State in both [human] polls. Unfortunately for LSU, they pulled a worst-case scenario."

Texas will certainly fall out of the top 2 in the BCS with a loss.

The Longhorns struggled Saturday to defeat undermanned Texas A&M, and though voters won't penalize them for one close game, Texas will be drop-kicked if it somehow loses to Colorado, a team ransacked by Nebraska, 30-3, one day after Thanksgiving.

BCS experts agree that Penn State, under almost any conceivable circumstance, will finish the regular season as the highest-rated one-loss team in the computer polls (one-third of the BCS formula). Therefore, even a slight drop from Texas in the two human polls will springboard Penn State into the No. 2 BCS spot.

Granted, Texas opens the week as a 271/2-point favorite against the Buffaloes.

"I think Texas' band could beat Colorado right now," said Jerry Palm, an independent BCS guru who runs the Web site CollegeBCS.com.

Despite some suggestions to the contrary, USC is a long shot, at best, to remain in the top two of the BCS with a loss.

Because of its 33-game winning streak and its unequaled collection of talent -- including last year's Heisman winner, Matt Leinart, and this year's likely Heisman winner, Reggie Bush -- Southern California has pushed into unique territory: a pinnacle so high that some now suggest the Trojans can lose in their season finale and still play for the national championship.

"No way," Palm said.

"It seems to me that it would be pretty difficult for USC to lose and stay ahead of Penn State," Edwards added.

Either way, a USC loss will drop the Trojans behind Penn State in the computer polls. That would leave one question: Will voters in the Harris poll and the USA Today poll vote USC No. 2, and by a large enough margin over Penn State, to keep the Trojans in the top two in the BCS? Probably not, Edwards said, because too many voters traditionally place heavy emphasis on the manner in which teams finish the season and direct head-to-head competition. Voters placing a premium on head-to-head matchups will rank a one-loss UCLA team above a one-loss USC team. Moreover, voters placing a premium on the stretch leg of the season will punish USC for a narrow victory two weeks ago against Fresno State and, finally, a loss against UCLA.

"One other thing," Edwards said. "I think a team by a different name in Penn State's exact position would have a greater chance of getting squeezed out [of the Rose Bowl]. I really feel like if USC does lose, there will also be a lot of sentiment from the voters to give Joe Paterno another chance at a final national title. I would be surprised if a lot of voters don't think that way. Keep in mind, the [USA Today] poll is made up of all coaches, and you have a pretty good idea the respect they have for Joe. And the Harris poll is almost entirely made of former coaches and former players. Those type of voters are probably more swayed by emotion than maybe media members would be."

So Penn State, entering the final weekend of regular season college football, is reduced to spectating and speculating. If neither USC nor Texas loses, Penn State will likely end up in the Jan. 3 Orange Bowl in Miami.

"Penn State's position," Palm said, "is actually pretty cut and dry."

It's now a three-team race. Only two of those teams are still running, and Penn State is hoping one of them trips.