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Analysis: Withdrawal shows strength of conservatives and current weakness of president
Thursday, October 27, 2005

WASHINGTON -- Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers' sudden withdrawal underscores the strength of the social conservatives who form President Bush's political base and the weakness of a president buffeted by one political misfortune after another.

Her withdrawal came after restive conservatives mounted a stinging campaign against her credentials.

Heading into what may be the darkest days of his presidency, the withdrawal provides Bush an opportunity to regain the support of that rebellious bloc and avoid drifting earlier than usual into the lame duck status that eventually claims all second-term U.S. presidents.

"Although it became a public fight, it was still a family fight," said GOP consultant Greg Mueller.

Official Washington had been bracing Thursday for possible indictments of top administration officials in the CIA-leak investigation. Instead, it was rocked by Miers' letter to the president saying her nomination was no longer "in the best interest of the country."

Her withdrawal came as the conservative campaign against her culminated in a national TV ad in which some of Bush's top supporters urged her to step down.

Evangelicals, Republican women, Southerners and other critical groups in Bush's political coalition are worried about the direction the nation is headed and have been disappointed with his performance, AP-Ipsos polling has found.

At the same time, the White House is worried about possible indictments in a special prosecutor's investigation into whether top officials leaked the name of CIA operative Valerie Plame as part of an effort to discredit her husband and his outspoken criticism of the Iraq war.

Adding to the distractions confronting the Bush presidency: rising fuel prices, soaring deficit spending and increasing public opposition to the Iraq war, which on Tuesday tallied the 2,000th American military death.

The withdrawal of Miers' name came as Bush headed for south Florida to survey damage from Hurricane Wilma. His administration's earlier slow response to Hurricane Katrina also drew intense criticism of his administration.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter, R-Pa., called the belittlement of Miers by fellow Republicans "a sad episode in the history of Washington D.C."

But even moderate Republicans have been fretting about losing their hard-won control of Congress in next year's midterm elections as a result of a season of repeated GOP setbacks.

Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada, who recommended Miers to the president, put the blame for her withdrawal squarely on "the radical right wing of the Republican Party."

But the decision came amid an increasingly bitter -- and possibly intractable -- battle between the White House and the Senate Judiciary Committee over demands from members of both parties for more internal documents from Miers' work as White House counsel.

The White House resisted, claiming executive and attorney-client privileges. "All presidents religiously protect that part of the process," said Fred McClure, who served as a White House attorney and legislative liaison in the Reagan and first Bush administrations.

Conservatives were hopeful -- but not assured -- that Bush would now turn for a replacement nominee to one of the dozen or so experienced jurists with proven conservative credentials that he had passed over in selecting Miers.

The White House and its major Republican allies in Congress portrayed the withdrawal decision as one made by the nominee, and reluctantly accepted by the president. They saluted Miers' courage.

After all, Miers, a Texas corporate lawyer who was once Bush's personal attorney, had been praised by the president just three weeks ago as the most qualified candidate for the post in the country.

And Specter, when asked Oct. 11 if he thought there was a chance Bush would withdraw Miers' nomination, told The Associated Press: "Absolutely not. I think that would be a sign of incredible weakness."

But Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., not a strong ally of the White House, may have given a more realistic characterization of the true views of conservatives like himself.

"The president in my opinion made a bad choice here," Lott told Fox News. "Occasionally that happens. She has dealt with it admirably. In a month, who will remember Harriet Miers?"

First published on October 27, 2005 at 12:00 am
EDITOR'S NOTE -- Tom Raum has covered Washington for The Associated Press since 1973.
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