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N.J. governor's race could be a national, Pa. barometer
Monday, October 24, 2005

TRENTON, N.J. -- Former Gov. James McGreevey sent shock waves through Garden State Democrats last year when he abruptly resigned after disclosing he'd had an affair with a male staff member.

Now it's up to U.S. Sen. Jon S. Corzine, the Democratic candidate for governor on Nov. 8, to try to keep the state's top job in Democratic hands. (Former state Sen. Richard Codey, a Democrat, has been filling out Mr. McGreevey's term but isn't running.)

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states electing governors on Nov. 8. The races are attracting nationwide attention, and for good reason, observers say.

The New Jersey race, in particular, "could well be seen as a barometer as to how well or how poorly the Democratic and Republican parties are doing nationally," said Carlos Kearns, who served as director of international trade under former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman.

Mr. Kearns, who is now an economic development consultant based in Snyder County, Pennsylvania, also is a former executive with the Allegheny Conference on Community Development in Pittsburgh.

"New Jersey has always been a very interesting bellwether for how politics in the U.S. is being viewed," he said.

The strident tenor of this year's race could be a precursor to Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell's run for re-election in 2006.

Similar issues are at stake. Both Pennsylvania and New Jersey are aiming to reform their tax systems, considering banning smoking in workplaces and debating the logistics of allowing slot machines at race tracks.

Both states' gubernatorial races are "pivotal and both have no shortage of good-quality people that have different ways of looking at how to build a better society, how to build a better New Jersey, how to build a better Pennsylvania," Mr. Kearns said.

A few months ago, it looked like the New Jersey race would be a cakewalk for Mr. Corzine, a well-known and popular millionaire Democrat who was far ahead of his Republican challenger, businessman Douglas R. Forrester, in the polls.

But after three acrimonious debates and a series of attack ads by the GOP camp, Mr. Forrester has closed the gap in most polls from 20 points to single digits and an upset isn't out of the question.

Mr. Corzine also has been hurt by the disclosure in August that he loaned $470,000 -- and then forgave the loan -- to a former girlfriend who is the leader of a major union that represents a lot of state workers. Some critics wondered how he, as governor, could deal with that union, the Communications Workers of America.

In a state that has a history of political corruption charges, that news didn't help the frontrunner.

New Jersey is generally considered a Democratic state, but it's not impossible for Republicans to win, as GOP governors Ms. Whitman and Thomas Kean can attest.

Mr. Corzine has raised more than $20 million so far and spent $18.6 million as of Oct. 11, with more spending expected before election day. Mr. Forrester has raised and spent about $10 million so far.

Mr. Forrester, founder of the prescription drug insurance company Benecard Services, is running on a conservative, family-values platform and mentions his wife and three children at every turn. His wife, Andrea, did a TV ad for him that has helped his popularity.

Mr. Forrester is former mayor of West Windsor, N.J., and ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 2002, losing to Democrat Frank Lautenberg.

Mr. Lautenberg was pressed into running after the incumbent Democrat, U.S. Sen. Robert Torricelli, had to drop out of the race due to his own financial scandal.

Mr. Corzine, a retired Wall Street tycoon with the Goldman Sachs financial firm, became a U.S. senator in 2000. The divorced father of two has made homeland security a campaign priority.

Mr. Corzine is still leading his lesser-known opponent, according to a poll released last week by Quinnipiac University in Connecticut.

He got support from 50 percent of likely voters, while 43 percent supported Mr. Forrester and the rest were undecided. The survey before that showed Mr. Forrester within four points.

Two minor party candidates -- Libertarian Jeffrey Pawlowski and Hector Castillo of the Education Not Corruption Party -- have brought their own attacks into the fray, accusing the major-party candidates of trying to buy their way into office.

Garden State voters seem to be increasingly dissatisfied with both major candidates, recent poll results show.

In September, 39 percent of survey respondents gave Mr. Forrester a favorable rating, 16 percent gave him an unfavorable rating and the rest gave a mixed rating. That slipped to 35 percent favorable and 22 percent unfavorable last week, according to the Quinnipiac poll.

Similarly, Mr. Corzine's favorable-unfavorable score dropped from 42-22 percent to 39-29 percent. Pollsters attribute the drops to negative campaigning, especially on Mr. Forrester's part.

Forrester supporters like Kate Planer and Chet Ostrowski, students from nearby Ewing, N.J., are becoming disenchanted, but not enough to switch their votes.

"I'll probably still vote for Forrester, but I'm disappointed now. He was jabbing Corzine way more than he needed to," Miss Planer said after a head-to-head debate Tuesday at the College of New Jersey, where she is a senior history major.

Mr. Forrester has accused Mr. Corzine of helping his party build "a culture of corruption" and points out his opponent's on-again, off-again support of Mr. McGreevey.

Mr. Corzine had praised Mr. McGreevey during last year's Democratic National Convention, but then said more recently that the scandal-ridden Mr. McGreevey "failed as a governor."

Mr. Forrester also has attacked Mr. Corzine for giving and then forgiving the big loan to his labor-leader girlfriend, Carla Katz. Her union endorsed Mr. Corzine in 2000 shortly after the loan was made.

Mr. Corzine, meanwhile, has returned fire, questioning whether Mr. Forrester's $60,000 donation to Republican leaders in Burlington County, N.J., might have helped Benecard win $3.4 million in contracts even though there were lower bidders.

Those kinds of accusations aren't surprising in a state that is as well-known for its corruption as its casinos.

In 2003, for example, former Patterson Mayor Martin Barnes was convicted of accepting lavish gifts, including trips and a swimming pool, in exchange for city contracts. And, more recently, former Irvington Mayor Sara Bost was indicted for taking bribes from contractors.

Just this year, 11 government leaders were rounded up in Monmouth County on corruption charges involving bribery and money laundering.

Some residents say they're tired of political rhetoric and recrimination. Instead, they want to hear solid plans for moving their state ahead.

Mr. Ostrowski agreed, saying, "New Jersey is facing a lot of difficult things. There are a lot of issues important to society that they should be talking about."

Chief among them are plans to reduce property taxes, which are the highest in the country.

Mr. Forrester is promising to cut taxes by 30 percent within three years, while Mr. Corzine says the state budget can't sustain that kind of reduction. Instead, he proposes increasing existing rebates by an average of $80 per homeowner, an amount opponents say is paltry.

Mr. Ostrowski wants to hear more about issues like that. He wants to hear candidates' positions on education funding and tuition rates at state colleges, too. He wants assurances that his next governor won't permit limitless use of eminent domain.

Mr. Rendell, a former Democratic National Committee chairman, is a friend of Mr. Corzine and thinks he will win but said, "I'm disappointed with the negative ads and the generally negative tone of the campaign.''

So is Mr. Lautenberg.

"I'd like to see these guys talk about New Jersey with a degree of pride. ... People don't want to hear nasty accusations," he said. "But dirty campaigns are now part of the system."

First published on October 24, 2005 at 12:00 am
Tracie Mauriello can be reached at tmauriello@post-gazette.com or 717-787-2141. Tom Barnes can be reached at tbarnes@post-gazette.com or 717-787-4254.
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