Q. Natural gas output is down and futures prices are soaring in the aftermath of back-to-back hurricanes. Is the country on the verge of a crisis?

A. Homeowners, electric utilities and manufacturers will see a steep rise in the amount they pay for natural gas this winter -- and that alone may qualify as a crisis for low-income families -- but analysts do not expect any shortages akin to what U.S. motorists experienced with gasoline this summer.

Industry officials say there is, and will be, plenty of natural gas for customers who want it and are willing to pay market prices.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita have placed enormous strain on the production of natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for 19 percent of the nation's total output. As of Monday, the region had lost 219.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas since Katrina, an amount equivalent to 6 percent of annual production in the Gulf. And 75 percent of the region's daily output remains shut down.

Natural gas futures prices are up more than 40 percent since Aug. 26, the Friday before Katrina made landfall. At close to $14 per 1,000 cubic feet on the New York Mercantile Exchange, prices are roughly twice as high as a year ago.

"I hate to use the word crisis, but there is certainly potential for real supply tightness," said oil broker Tom Bentz of BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York. "If we're not able to build adequate storage going into winter, we'll have extremely high prices. And that, for some people, would already constitute a crisis."

So what is adequate storage?

Analysts generally agree that, before the winter heating season, the U.S. needs more than 3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in underground storage in order to accommodate anticipated daily demand of about 61 billion cubic feet. At the moment, domestic storage is about 2.9 trillion cubic feet and there are a few weeks left in the so-called injection period, when gas is put into storage by utilities and others.

"We have a reasonable chance to get to 3.2 trillion cubic feet," said analyst Dan Lippe of Houston-based Petral Worldwide. "If we do, there will be a sigh of relief."

But even if that level is not reached, there may not be as much to be fearful about as natural gas futures prices would suggest, Lippe said.

For starters, there is less demand for natural gas among Gulf Coast electric utilities, petrochemical plants and manufacturers affected by Katrina and Rita. And industrial users and homeowners across the country are expected to use less natural gas this winter because of the high prices.

U.S. utilities are already using 2.5 billion cubic feet a day less natural gas than last year as they switch to less expensive energy sources, such as coal and nuclear energy, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association.

Moreover, natural gas output is expected to rise, if it hasn't already, in Canada and in the Rocky Mountain region as producers take advantage of the high-price environment, according to Mark Stultz, a spokesman for the association.

Stultz said the fact that natural gas inventories have continued to grow since the hurricanes, albeit at a slower-than-normal rate, is an indication of the industry's ability to keep up with the reduced demand.

He conceded that if the pace of recovery in the Gulf of Mexico does not pick up soon the industry will face a greater challenge when colder weather sets in and home-heating demand really picks up.

"It is the worst case scenario that seems to be driving the futures market," Stultz said.

But is there any way for average consumers to limit their financial exposure to the whims of energy traders?

"Turn down your thermostat this winter," Stultz said. "Not only will you save money because you are using less, but you will also take pressure off the market and that will cause prices to fall and thereby reduce the cost for the fuel you are using."