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Pirates Q&A with Dejan Kovacevic
Wednesday, August 31, 2005

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Q: Dejan, under what scenario could you picture Lloyd McClendon and the coaching staff returning?

From out here on the West Coast, it seems Lloyd's hold on his job is his self-stated mission "to make the young players better." I crunched some numbers as to how other "young" teams have fared since the All-Star break.

Tampa Bay is 27-15.

Milwaukee is 22-21.

Colorado is 20-23.

Pittsburgh is 15-29.

With a youth movement in full swing, I wonder whether you think the Pirates can entrust this coaching staff with the Bucs' make-or-break crop of young talent.

Dana Parsons of Newport Beach, Calif.

KOVACEVIC: Before I take your actual question, Dana, a couple of quibbles.

Your use of quotation marks around the word "young" implies that you feel this is word is being applied incorrectly. It is not. All 30 Major League Baseball teams have an average age that is computed daily by using active rosters. The teams you cite are, in fact, young.

Which brings me to my second quibble: Willfully or not, you omitted Kansas City, the only team in the majors younger than the Pirates. The Royals are 12-30 since the All-Star break, a worse record than any team up there.

Now, that established, the issue you raise is a valid and critical one: Is McClendon the right person to manage this group of apparently talented youngsters?

The answer, I believe, is that he is running out of time to demonstrate this.

The Pirates had a decent 6-6 road trip earlier this month that included three impressive victories, one each in Houston, New York and Philadelphia. More relevant to this discussion, they had younger players showing improvement, notably the resuscitation of Ryan Doumit and the power of Brad Eldred. (No one gets credit for Zach Duke other than Zach Duke at this stage.)

Since then, we saw a homestand that was simply awful in just about every regard. Poor pitching for the most part, amateurish hitting with men on base, and sloppy work in the field and on the basepaths.

It was any manager's nightmare, particularly one whose job is on the line.

Add to that losing Duke, Chris Duffy and Jose Castillo, and it looks even more ominous.

I will repeat what I wrote last week on this matter: The vibes being given out by upper management on McClendon and his staff are almost nonexistent, and that cannot possibly be a favorable indicator.

Early in the season, those vibes were quite positive. When Dave Littlefield was asked about McClendon, he would offer praise. Now, he simply repeats the same line about the decision on the manager not being a priority. He also, for what it is worth, talks about being disappointed at the way the team fell apart after the 30-30 start.

McClendon predicted after that ugly loss on Sunday that the next five weeks "are going to be very special for us." It is looking more and more like they had better be.


Q: Dejan, I agree with your comments in last week's Q&A that the Pirates' biggest offseason need will be a third baseman and that free agents such as Bill Mueller and Joe Randa do not really solve the need for a power bat for that position.

That being said, do you really think there is a legitimate chance that the Bucs can trade for a power-hitting third-baseman in the offseason?

Here is a list of third-basemen who currently have a higher slugging percentage than both Mueller and Randa, in order:

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. Morgan Ensberg

3. Aramis Ramirez (Oh, the pain!)

4. David Wright

5. Troy Glaus

6. Eric Chavez

7. Shea Hillenbrand

8. Hank Blalock

9. Melvin Mora

10. Adrian Beltre

Nos. 1-7 certainly will not be on the market, and the Pirates cannot afford Beltre's contract. Thoughts on the other three and their availability?

Would love to see the Pirates get Blalock, who is young and bats left, but it's hard to envision the Rangers trading him even though they are loaded with bats and desperate for pitchers. I think it would take two major-league starters (Wells and Williams?) for them to even consider it and even that's a stretch.

In the end, I guess my point is that trading to fill the hole is easier said than done. We can always dream thought, right?

Ted Schroeder of Point Breeze, Pittsburgh

KOVACEVIC: There most definitely are not many third basemen who fit the Pirates' needs and appear attainable, I would agree, Ted. But these situations change. Might Wright have been considered so untouchable a year ago? Remember Oakland considering offers for Chavez earlier in the year? How about the way Glaus' injuries caused concern for his future?

The idea here might be to go after someone on his way up, target that person, then go for him. If that means giving up a pitcher you would rather not give up, so be it. There are other pitchers, even within the organization. As you and others have illustrated, there are not many third basemen anywhere.


Q: Why is it that Josh Fogg suddenly has come under attack from Lloyd McClendon?

I mean, I understand that his numbers aren't the greatest, but he is a decent No. 5 starter. McClendon constantly rips on Fogg, but defends Kip Wells and his 14 losses (compared to Fogg's nine) and talks about how Wells is almost ready to turn the corner.

Sean Lokmer of Monaca

KOVACEVIC: You are welcome, Sean, to use the Post-Gazette's search engine to disprove your own accusations. Type in "McClendon and Fogg," and every article written in our paper involving these two will show up. You will not find anything close to Fogg coming "under attack" from McClendon or anyone.

While you are at it, you can do the same for Wells, and one of the most recent entries that pops up will have a highly negative assessment from McClendon of a Wells outing.

If what you actually want to ask here is why Fogg's spot in the rotation is seen as being in jeopardy, but not those of Wells or Mark Redman, then the answers would be threefold:

1. Fogg is arbitration eligible again after this season. He made $2.15 million this year and, because of baseball's bizarre arbitration criteria, he is going to get a raise through that process again. Unless, of course, the Pirates non-tender him, which is what appears will happen. In fact, it is likely they already have made up their minds to go that route. And, if that is the case, management's thinking might go, then why keep him in the rotation when there are so many young pitchers who deserve a look?

2. Wells has superior stuff to anyone starter on the staff shy of Oliver Perez. When he is on, he can be dominant. Ask the Phillies, the only team he seems to dominate anymore. Because of his natural talents, he is seen -- correctly -- as having greater upside and, thus, is handled differently. More on Wells with the next Q.

3. Redman, unlike Fogg, had a good first two months. That is one advantage in his corner. Another is that the Pirates probably realize he will be on their team, one way or another, next year. Either he will have a magical September and bring his value back to where it was in June. Or, more likely, he will exercise the $4.5 million player option on his contract and remain in the fold. Whichever way that plays out, the Pirates have him unless they would want to buy him out, which would seem to be unnecessary.


Q: I wrote earlier in the year complaining about the raise Kip Wells received in arbitration, even though he did not play a whole year. Now, we would expect Kip to receive another raise this year based on his years of seniority, because it surely could not be because of performance. What increase do you expect in arbitration this year for Kip?

Also are the Pirates believers in the use of sports psychiatry? It appears the only thing Kip needs, if you believe his stuff is as good as a front-line pitcher, is a better belief in that stuff.

Paul Brown of Warren, Ohio

KOVACEVIC: Wells' salary this season was $3.175 million. It was the figure upon which he and the Pirates agreed to avoid arbitration in January, and it reflects the number those parties feel would have been somewhere in between what one or the other sought from an arbitrator.

And this was after a 5-7 season.

He is 7-14 with a 4.66 ERA this year, so his performance has not elevated much. But he has given the team 154 2/3 innings and, from what I was told by arbitration participants last winter, that figure is weighed heavily by the panel when assessing the value of pitchers.

If I had to guess, I would say Wells will get close to $4 million without actually reaching it.

I would also say that would ramp up the Pirates' desire to trade him, except that I believe this has been their desire for quite a while. The only thing stopping them, from what I gather, is that they would selling very low and there is no need to do that with someone whose value could shoot up quickly.


Q: Hey, Dejan, you've asked about young people and the Pirates, and I thought I could make an observation.

I've been a really big Pirates fan all my life, though I've never lived in the Pittsburgh area. I grew up in Baltimore, but my dad's family is from up here, so I bleed black and gold. I just started school at Duquesne University, so I live up here for the first time, and I'm very happy about it.

When I talk to people on campus about sports, their attention of course turns to the Steelers first, and most people are excited about the Penguins, but it's been interesting to observe their reactions about the Pirates. It's almost like the Pirates are this town's little brother. People here are unhappy about how they're doing, but if you say something bad about them they'll jump down your throat. I'm consistently amazed at how many people were excited about Zach Duke, how many people commented that they hoped his ankle is OK and how much people were talking about Brad Eldred. I think people are so ready to embrace a winning baseball team here that it hurts to see them play the way they have for the last 13 years. I honestly think Pittsburgh is a powder keg waiting to explode for this ballclub.

Another thing I'd like to note: Having lived in Baltimore and Washington, I went to a few Nationals games this year, and I normally go to a few Orioles games, and the atmospheres at those games can't compare to Pirates games. The fans here are happier, more knowledgeable, and much, much more forgiving than in those other cities. Anyone who says this isn't a baseball town should go to Baltimore, and they'll see what a true not baseball town is.

Marc Graham of Uptown, Pittsburgh

KOVACEVIC: All I will add to that, Marc, is that I, too, noticed an incessant upbeat nature from the season-ticket holders I used to encounter in the ballpark. Perhaps that is partly due to justifying the expense of paying all that money, but perhaps it also is because, bluntly put, no one cares more about the franchise than those who attend games regularly. Fans can boo the manager, boo the players, boo whatever they like. But the moment those TBS zombies infiltrate the place to cheer Chipper and the Braves, they turn instantly protective about their Pirates.

This is very much a Pittsburgh trait, as you will find in your time here: We complain quite a bit about nearly everything, but no one else is allowed.

Oh, and welcome. If you are in need of a list of cool places and stuff Downtown, feel free to send in another Q.


Q: Hi, Dejan. I have never been this excited about the team since ... I can't remember. I was a college senior with the phone in my hand ready to sit in the last row of Three Rivers for all the World Series games.

After reading your closing to the Q&A last week, maybe we can begin to feel that this may be the crop that rekindles it like the 1988 team, the best team after some disastrous ones. But what makes you believe that this version is different than before?

I have watched a lot of teams in MLB blow smoke, saying they have to build from within, then failing to win anything. The 1987 Pirates came together after trading Rick Reuschel to the Giants and finished 27-11 to close the season at 80-82. Does this version have enough talent to make the jump to an 85-90 win season? Do they have the chemistry? You talked about Doumit. How about the others?

Dave John of New York

KOVACEVIC: What I wrote in the closing last week generated much, much mail similar to yours, Dave, and most of it was from people saying they were just as intrigued by the Pirates' current core group as you seem to be. And these sentiments, as I was speculating last week, appeared to come from those who are paying the closest attention to the franchise rather than the casual fan.

Are we going to see this intrigue turn into results down the stretch here, as happened in 1987? My guess is no. For one, the loss to injuries of Zach Duke, Chris Duffy and Jose Castillo take some pretty significant pieces out of the equation. For another, as we were discussing earlier, the team is performing pretty poorly right now, the outburst in Milwaukee last night notwithstanding. It felt like they had a chance to build some momentum off that 6-6 road trip early in the month, but the 1-6 homestand -- and some seriously ugly baseball -- quashed that in a hurry.

I will say this: Not much that happens in either direction the rest of the way here is going to alter my interest in this core group. It is, of course, entirely possible that all of them could be busts. The same is true of anyone. But some of the specific things they have done well are the result of natural talent, and that sort of thing tends not to just vanish.

Brad Eldred hits the ball a very, very long way. Even his mistakes have a chance to be home runs. Yes, he strikes out way too much and almost never walks. Moreover, he is almost a non-entity with runners in scoring position. This is ominous for a middle-of-the-order guy. But what he does show is plenty interesting.

Chris Duffy is excellent defensively and does enough offensively that it does not seem fluky. He hits to all fields, which is the most obvious positive. He also gets down the baseline to first as fast as anyone around, and speed never goes into a slump. He does need more patience, but he seems to be real.

Ryan Doumit has done pretty much as advertised offensively, with the exception of one slump, and he hardly has been a catastrophe behind the plate, as many -- including myself -- might have projected he could be.

Zach Duke is Zach Duke.

You know, I did get a couple of emails in the past week from people taking shots at that Q&A closing in light of the Pirates getting creamed by the Cardinals and Reds. And that is fine. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, as well as a viewpoint to where the team is headed.

But what I wrote about really was not intended to be any one game or set of games. It was more about a feeling about these players based on a body of information and observation that goes back to spring training. They strike me as being not only quite talented but also as having the personality of winners.


Q: In connection with the closing of your Q&A, I think you're correct that the biggest potential stumbling block now is the team's management.

They've talked about hiking the payroll next year, and the prospect of an attendance boost from the confluence of the All-Star Game and an improved team must be enticing. I'm also convinced that the ownership and the GM have believed for years that"

A. Veterans (you know, like Randall Simon, Chris Stynes and Derek Bell) are safer than young players.

B. Pirates fans would rather watch crappy, one-year rental veterans that they've heard of than young guys who might struggle but might actually have a future.

Do you get any sense whether the experiences recently with Duke, Duffy and others have caused a shift in attitude in the front office? Do you think Dave Littlefield is likely to derail the youth movement by throwing his little bit of mad money this winter at a handful of third-tier free agents? Is there some way to block Randall Simon's agent's number on Littlefield's cell phone?

Wilbur Miller of Silver Spring, Md.

KOVACEVIC: I strongly agree with your points about the Pirates' bizarre view that their fans would be more satisfied with, uh, less-than-stellar veterans, and I also agree that nothing could be further from the truth. As someone who sat in those seats for 81 games a year for nearly a decade, I can attest to this matter first-hand and with great confidence.

I also can say that this view carried over into this season. Littlefield said at one point early this summer that he needed to make sure he had X number of veterans in order to keep people coming through the turnstiles.

It does appear that, as of the past two months, this erroneous, out-of-touch-with-the-public view seems to have altered. The Pirates, I am sure you would agree, have displayed a clear commitment to their young players. Brad Eldred is the starting first baseman. Chris Duffy was the everyday center fielder before getting hurt. Ryan Doumit just recently bumped Humberto Cota as the everyday catcher. Zach Duke was in the rotation, and he soon will be joined by Bryan Bullington, Ian Snell and Paul Maholm if he keeps pitching as he did last night. And do not forget that Jose Castillo was in his second season as the everyday second baseman at age 24.

Moreover, and maybe more important, the attitude seems to be changing. Littlefield spoke a couple of weeks ago about hearing from fans how they enjoyed seeing the young players out there, even when they do not win. Lloyd McClendon has talked about the same.

Will it carry over into 2006? We will see.

The Pirates do plan to add some veteran presence to the team, and that is not something I would dispute. Too many young players makes for a volatile situation in the intangible sense, and the benefits of having at least a veteran or two in each facet pays off for the future in more tangible ways, too. Regardless, I am sure that, when the Pirates sign such players, there is going to be a Santiago-sized outcry. In my view, it should be ignored.

That said, the Pirates should not entertain the idea of signing veterans for the purpose of replacing any of their important young players. Get a third baseman. Get a reliever or two if Rick White and Brian Meadows do not return. And get a right-handed starter for depth purposes. But, as I was stressing last week, leave the rest alone.


In closing ...

No speech from the soapbox this week. Just one point I wanted to make about the coverage the rest of the way:

The Pirates are the National League's youngest team, but that should not make them immune to criticism, contrary to what a few readers seemed to indicate in notes sent here this week.

For one thing, these players are in the majors. Whether they would be in the majors in the Yankees or Cardinals organizations is immaterial. They are in the majors now, and their performance should be weighed same as that of any player at that level. If Brad Eldred is hitting home runs and winning games, that is what will get written. If he is striking out just about every time there is a man on third base, that will be written, too, just as it would for Craig Wilson or Daryle Ward.

For another, these players are in the spotlight. Being blunt here, there is not that much terribly interesting about this team in September other than how the young players do. I am going to assume that most of our readers are more interested in that aspect than any other. And to paint that picture accurately and fairly, it requires offering both the positive and negative.


Until next week, by which time the Pirates might have recalled three more pitchers who will never lose a game in the majors ...




First published on August 31, 2005 at 12:00 am