Pirates Q&A with Dejan Kovacevic

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

August 17, 2005

Q: Dejan, will Lloyd McClendon be fired this year?

Let me begin by saying that I don't feel McClendon is the root cause for the Pirates' failure over the last few seasons. But he is not helping.

Last year, from Aug. 19 to the end of the season, the Pirates were 14-28. Art Howe of the Mets had a similar record -- from Aug 21. to the end, they were 12- 29 -- and he was run out of town. Gene Lamont in his last season was 30-51 in June, July and August and, yet, despite his 16-14 record in the last month, management couldn't wait to get rid of him. Lee Mazzilli with Baltimore this year was 42-28, and everyone was excited. Then, the Orioles went 9-28, and he was looking for a new job.

And look at this year. The Pirates were 30-30 and, since then, they are 21-48. I understand that different people have different expectations but, if you have low expectations, you will get mediocre results.

So, the argument for keeping McClendon is that he is a good guy and hasn't really had talent to work with. This will only work with me if he helps to develop young talent and they become better as the season progresses. It appears that McClendon has done a spotty job on this front.

I won't look at the rookies from this year because it is hard to tell with such a small sample. These are some of the young players that McClendon has had to work with: Jason Schmidt, Kris Benson, Jason Bay, Jack Wilson, Craig Wilson, Dave Williams, Jose Castillo, Aramis Ramirez, Oliver Perez, Tike Redman, Chad Hermansen, Jimmy Anderson, Jose Silva, Kip Wells, Ryan Vogelsong, Humberto Cota, Josh Fogg, Bobby Hill, J.R. House and J.J. Davis. Schmidt and Benson became better pitchers after they left the Pirates. Bay, both Wilsons, Castillo and Williams have made steady progress under McClendon. Ramirez was making progress before he was traded. Perez had one good season and is having one disastrous season. The rest have either regressed or never improved.

McClendon has not done enough to merit another year as a manager. I am not saying he is the cause of the problem, but he certainly has not been the solution.

What do you think of his record with the young players?

Jon McClain of Clifton, N.J.

KOVACEVIC: You asked two questions there, Jon, and I will take them one at a time.

First, I do not know if McClendon will be fired. I had been writing for quite a while that the vibes I had been getting were that he would be retained, at least through his option year. Those vibes have fallen silent. I do not hear that he is not coming back, but neither am I hearing that he is.

This much I know for sure: If he or anyone on the coaching staff is coming back, they have not been told. There is no doubt about that.

To your second area, I elect, unlike you, to judge on this season alone. And I do this for the simple reason that I have been covering this team only for 2005.

While I did pay intense attention to the Pirates before taking the beat, I did not do so with anything approaching the access, information or first-hand viewing of most of the young players you cite.

Did McClendon mess up Chad Hermansen, or was he simply a non-performer?

Was McClendon responsible for setting Aramis Ramirez on his way to becoming an All-Star?

I cannot say either with any degree of certainty.

I will, however, feel plenty comfortable analyzing the young players currently in the organization, at the major-league level and in the minors, and in watching closely how they improve or regress once in Pittsburgh. But, as you correctly point out, that will take time. The six players from Indianapolis all got here within the past two months. Bay and Castillo have gotten better. Williams has been above and beyond what anyone expected. Perez's year is a washout. So is Craig Wilson's and Mike Gonzalez's. Jack Wilson took a step backward. I am not sure how much was expected from Tike at the outset. We could go on and on, but the book really is only starting to get written on most of these players.

Anyway, I can tell you this: I do believe that the decision Dave Littlefield reaches on McClendon and the rest of the coaching staff is going to be based on how the youngsters come along, fair or not.

Keep a close eye on this, and you are likely to have the answer to both your questions.

Q: Hi, Dejan. Allow me to answer the call and extol the virtues of Jason Bay.

I agree with your assessment: Bay is so consistent that we have come to expect his high level of play. One element of his lack of praise from fans, I believe, is his quiet, professional approach. After getting blanked in the All-Star Home Run Derby, he expressed some brief regret, said he had fun and suggested Jose Castillo would be the best Pirate for such an event. How did he react after being the only position player to not participate in the All-Star Game itself? Not a peep. He could have whined about it. He could have blamed manager Tony La Russa. Nope, he just went back to Pittsburgh and went about his business.

It is a shame he does not get the recognition he deserves from the Pirates' fan base, but I would argue, All-Star or not, that he is the least appreciated player in all of baseball.

If we analyze it, he is on pace to play every game, hit .300, have around 30 home runs, 50 doubles, 115 runs, 100 RBIs and 20 steals for one of the worst-hitting teams in the National League. He has exorcised the mythical sophomore jinx. His numbers make for a great year by any standard but, placed in the context of a woefully deficient team, they are downright Pujols-ian.

Furthermore, he has improved defensively. Taking the proper angle, getting a good jump and playing caroms have always been strengths of his outfield play but last year he did not show a very good arm. This year, he has demonstrated a strong and accurate arm.

All for the bargain basement price of $355,000.

That's right, he now officially makes less than a healthy-scratch, fourth-line winger in the NHL. He is only going to get better and he is going to be the litmus test to prove whether or not Pirates management is serious about its promise to keep its best players. If I were McClatchy & Co., I would start sharpening the pencils for a long-term deal.

Bob Maddamma of Rochester, N.Y.

KOVACEVIC: Much mail about Bay this week, some of it in response to my complaint in the Q&A last week that no one seemed to be talking about him, some of it in response to the piece I did Monday.

Here is another ...

Q: The article yesterday on Jason Bay is full of praise for the kid, and I have enjoyed watching him play this year. When are the Pirates going to show they are as serious about signing him to a long-term contract as Bay is about his game?

At this stage in the McClatchy regime this seems to be a bigger "must-sign" player than either Jason Kendall or Brian Giles given Bay's upside, although I will confess to hindsight here.

Regardless, when are the Bucs going to buck up?

Matt Walker of New York

KOVACEVIC: I ask Dave Littlefield about this on a fairly regular basis. The most recent occasion was Sunday in Houston, and his reply was no different than it has been, really, for months: He said everything is being considered but that there had been no contact to date and none planned. When I asked if it was possible to raise this matter before the end of the season, he responded that anything is possible.

I know this: The Pirates are, at the very least, interested in the idea of extending Bay through his arbitration years. That, of course, would take a four-year deal, which is not the sort of thing they have been doing of late. But, in this case, it is one that could pay significant dividends. Bay has shown not the slightest trace of anything other than steady performance. He surely will not continue the level of ascent of these past two years -- no one could -- but neither is there a sign of an imminent leveling off.

No one is asking my advice but, if I were the Pirates, I would pursue this one fairly aggressively. Arbitrators do not just take into account what a player did in the season before arbitration. They take into account a body of work. That means that, when Bay is eligible for this after the 2006 season, he could be in for a monster pay day even if he does nothing more than year than replicate what he did this year. Or even tail off a bit.

Forget about being nice to Bay. Seems to me the Pirates have much to gain here for themselves.

Ask the Twins how they feel about wrapping up Johan Santana through his arbiration years, as they did last winter.

Q: Hi, Dejan. My question concerns Jody Gerut's recent move to the DL. It seems that the Pirates have a knack for trading completely healthy players for players with major injury problems, such as Brandon Lyon a few years back. Are the Pirates making huge mistakes in acquiring these players? Or are they just victims of bad luck?

And by the way, I agree with you that I hope all Pirates fans have noticed Jason Bay's incredible season this year. He is the real deal and has a legitimate chance of having a 20/20 season. Let's hope he sticks around for a long time.

Ramin Saghafi of Oakland, Pittsburgh

KOVACEVIC: Going back to the topic above, Ramin, I was not around for Brandon Lyon. I was not there to ask questions, interview people, find out why the deal was done or why it was rejected. I also was not around for some of the other injured players the team has acquired.

Understand, please, this is not ducking the issue on my part. If you write to me in three or four years and ask what I might think of trading for Gerut, I can assure you I will have an answer, one that I hope you would find informed.

For now, in Gerut's case, I can say that I am not aware of the Pirates being caught off guard by any aspect of his condition. Less than an hour after the trade, Littlefield spoke publicly about Gerut's knee surgery and the fact that he was still wearing a brace and would need to continue doing so the rest of the season. He also acknowledged in that talk that the Pirates did not expect to see Gerut competing at full health until next spring training.

Also, according to the team, Gerut's current injury -- an irritated patella tendon -- is unrelated to the surgery. Littlefield allowed for the possibility that Gerut's compensating for his knee surgery could have contributed to the patella, but he is adamant that it is not an aggravation of the problem the surgery was supposed to correct.

At this time, there is no reason to doubt that information is correct. More will be obvious come next spring.

Now, as to whether the Pirates are making mistakes by acquiring injured players, I would argue that they are not, so long as those injuries are not potentially fatal flaws such as pitchers' elbows and the like.

A torn ACL, which is what Gerut had corrected, does not end a career. In most cases, it does not go on to have any effect. If he gets back to 100 percent and performs as he did as a rookie, he will have been worth the gamble. So many readers write in to ask why the Pirates do not take more buy-low, sell-high risks. Well, this is one way of doing it, albeit within reason.

Q: Dejan, while it would be great if the Pirates could break their streak of 13 losing seasons, it seems to me that the excitement of that achievement would evaporate quickly. After all, .500 doesn't get you even close to the playoffs in baseball.

What do you think of this proposal (which will never happen) ...

What if baseball threw out the dull interleague play and shifted to a system more like what many European soccer leagues have: Two leagues, an upper league and a lower league. Each could have their own playoffs and champion. In addition, the champion of the lower league and the teams with the next two best records would be promoted while the bottom three in the lower league would be demoted for the following season.

Why do this? Simple, isn't it more likely that the Pirates can make a run at the postseason in this scenario than in the current reality? If financial sanity can't be accomplished, I think would rather root for the Division 2 champion Pirates that the three-games-over-.500 Pirates.

Stephen Suity of Glenshaw

KOVACEVIC: And why should the Pirates, a once-proud franchise with 119 years of history and five World Series championships, be relegated to second-class status under any circumstance?

This type of thinking avoids the problem rather than addressing it, Stephen. Sports should not be about market size. The framework should be fair. If the Pirates are still wretched and the Yankees still win from there, so be it.

Let the relocated franchises (Yankees) and recent expansion teams (Devil Rays) play in your second division, and I might find it to be a better idea.

Q: Why is Josh Bonifay's name never mentioned, when the Pirates talk about their young prospects?

Phil Brown of Bethel Park

KOVACEVIC: Because he is not young, and because he is running out of time to be classified a prospect.

Bonifay is 27, and he is having a strong year for Class AA Altoona. He has 23 home runs, a .286 average and 71 RBIs, numbers that probably offset his gaudy total of 94 strikeouts. But prospects cross into the danger zone when they are older than 25 and still playing at that level, and I have heard no one in the Pirates organization suggest that Bonifay should or will be getting promoted anytime soon.

That said, as long as there is an Adam Hyzdu or Scott Seabol, there is hope. Hyzdu, for those who do not know, went from Altoona legend to being an instantly popular player at PNC and still gets his taste of the majors in the San Diego organization. Seabol is the Glassport native who has seen his first real big-league action this year at age 30 with the Cardinals. Certainly, those two had more than their share of doubters, and they still made it.

Q: Hi, Dejan. After reading last week's Q&A and your analysis of the "weakness" at third base, I'm wondering why Freddy Sanchez doesn't factor in at all. I know he's made some fielding errors recently, but he also has moments of brilliance. I feel the same way about him at the plate. To me, this is evidence of someone with the potential to be an outstanding third basemen once he can iron out his consistency problems.

Is there something I'm missing about him? Why don't you think he's a good candidate for permanent third baseman?

Betsy Hook of Hoboken, N.J.

KOVACEVIC: Before I answer, Betsy, I first have to point out how lousy I feel about not having acknowledged in the game story from Sunday what a terrific game Sanchez had at third. He made one outstanding diving stop and started two fine double plays. He was the game's defensive star and, even though there was a ton to write that day, he should have had his due.

To answer your question, Betsy, I really do not think this has much to with Sanchez's performance. If he plays up to the very best of his standard, even if he hits .300 and wins a Gold Glove, he still does not give the Pirates what they need at that particular position. Not given their dearth of power elsewhere on the diamond.

Look at it this way: If the Pirates were getting regular power from positions such as shortstop, second base and center field, they might be able to afford having a Joe Randa type at third. But, the past weekend aside, they are not going to get many home runs from Jack Wilson. I believe Jose Castillo will turn into a 20, maybe even a 25 kind of guy, but that is not known. And I do not see Chris Duffy hitting more than 10 or 15. And yet, those players appear to be fixtures on the team, mostly because of how good they are defensively where it is most important.

That means power has to come from the corners. The Pirates are lucky to have Ryan Doumit doing well defensively behind the plate. Power from that position is a bonus. They also have Jason Bay in left showing he could be a regular 25-30 guy. If Craig Wilson is still with the team, he could bring 25-30 more in right. And, if Brad Eldred develops at first, he might be able to match them or, someday, exceed them.

That still is not enough. Not in the way of certainty and probably not in the way of power even if all of those variables play out to the optimal scenario. There has to be power at third.

Now, that might come from Jose Bautista. If it does, that obviously would be tremendous for the club. Anyone who has scanned the free-agent lists for 2006 can see that all that will be available to the Pirates through that route is more of what they already have. That means a trade will be necessary. But I would argue that, even with the September callup I am expecting Bautista will get, he is not going to have enough of a chance to show he should get that starting job for next year.

You are right, Betsy: Sanchez is having a fine year. He is hitting .277 and has shown he can go to all fields fairly consistently. He also has made a seamless adjustment to third, strengthening an infield that already was very good. But he is not about to transform himself into a bopper.

Q: What's going on with Neil Walker's defense? Every time I look at the Minor-League Report, he has added another passed ball. Is there any concern with the Pirates front office that there will be yet another defensive liability behind the plate? Is this something they think he will get better with age at, or is a position change likely coming

Larry Serbin of Columbus, Ohio

KOVACEVIC: First off, I wonder what you mean, Larry, when you say "another defensive liability behind the plate." If you consider Walker to be one, who are the others? Not Humberto Cota, certainly. Probably not Ryan Doumit, at least not the way he has performed for the past month. And not Ronny Paulino, who is said to be decent.

I am guessing you meant Doumit, since he did arrive in Pittsburgh with a reputation for not being sufficiently advanced to catch in the majors. But I never heard, even in spring training, that he was defensively deficient in terms of talent. There is a difference. A player with no arm, for example, is a player with no arm. A player with limited athletic ability might be hindered from being able to make great stops. A player who is not terribly bright might not be able to learn the position's nuances or have the right personality to work with pitchers.

Doumit has none of those issues. Yes, he has made mistakes behind the plate, and those get documented when they happen. But my view is that the good has outweighed the bad to this point. He hardly is a "liability."

Anyway, this dovetails with your question about Walker because, from everything I have been told by baseball people, catching is a very difficult position to master. They will tell you there are very few polished types at any position in Class A or below, and they will underscore that when discussing catchers.

Regarding Walker specifically, I get the feeling that the Pirates are going to be open-minded about a position switch, but I have not heard that they are convinced he cannot graduate into a good defensive catcher.

One last thing on this subject: I type those Minor-League Reports myself, and I am including the negatives with the positives where I think they might be of interest to the readership. That is why you read about Walker's passed balls or an error Rajai Davis or Andrew McCutchen might make. It is because those are the players fans are following the most closely. It is not because they are the only people committing these errors. I also have been trying to include obscure stuff such as outfield assists, caught stealings, walks and that sort of thing for these players.

Please keep that in mind. I am not trying to pick on these prospects. I just figure you might want to know more about them than others, good and bad.

Q: Dejan, I hope you had a good time last week in Colorado. I was at all three games and, even though the Buccos took two of three in fairly impressive fashion, I was slightly disappointed not to see Chris Duffy patrol Coors Field's center field.

Would you be able to tell me what Tike Redman's contract situation is after this year and do you think he feels like a lame duck? If my count was correct, in 11 plate appearances as leadoff batter in this series, he saw a grand total of 22 pitches. And he had more than one lousy jump in center. The Pirates would be crazy to bring him back next year if he doesn't have a contract.

Jeff Kost of Louisville, Colo.

KOVACEVIC: Denver was excellent, Jeff, as it always is. One of my favorite cities on the continent, actually. Very dynamic, especially the whole 16th Street scene. It is a great idea, one I would love to see our Downtown replicate on Forbes Avenue.

Anyway, Tike is the topic of our big finish for the week, so I will spare the detail on this answer. His contract expires after this season, and he either can have another year of being a zero-to-three player and continuing to get close to the minimum wage. Or he can be eligible for arbitration. Because of Major League Baseball's involved criteria for arbitration, sometimes it is not clear who is eligible until the whole pool is established. I asked Dave Littlefield about this last week, and he said he does not expect to know until this fall.

In closing ...

I asked the readership last week to conceive penalties that would fit the crime of swinging at the first pitch after your pitcher just delivered a two-out single on a nine-pitch at-bat, as happened with Tike in Denver.

As always, the more vindictive among you never are hard to find. Here is a sampling of the responses:

Clay Fulton of Brookline, Pittsburgh: Dejan, rememeber the movie "Major League?" Make Tike do 20 pushups at home plate in front of the crowd. Or any player, for that matter, when they pull a bonehead play. Include baserunning errors, as well. I have seen Little Leaguers play better ball on some nights. I was taught by a few coaches who played pro ball, and they almost always told you to look at the first pitch.

Dave Brown of Birmingham, Ala.: Rather than come up with a penalty that the Players Association will get rescinded during the appeals process, I have a solution to eliminate the problem: Have Lloyd McClendon demand that the batter go to the plate and bat from the opposite side of the plate for the first pitch. So, in last night's situation, Tike Redman would have to bat right-handed for the first pitch.

Tony Verdream of South Side, Pittsburgh: Dejan, here's one: Keep Tike Redman on the bench where he belongs. I see no reason for him to ever be in the starting lineup again, do you?

Larry Wichterman of McCandless: Dejan, I would submit that it is coaching. Players should be coached about such things. And if that doesn't work, remind him before his at-bat. And if that doesn't work, order him not to swing. This is the same as getting the take sign with a 3-0 count. Shouldn't most of the blame therefore be placed on coaching?

Ivo Fronzaglia of Colorado Springs, Colo.: Don't think penalty, Dejan. Think prevention. I just read the MLB rulebook and saw nothing in it that requires a batter to actually have a bat in the box with him. Problem solved. If Mac doesn't want the batter to swing at the first pitch or even the first two, send the fellow up there without a bat. That's a strategy even the rookies should understand.

Until next week, by which point someone will write in to complain about the bullpen being overused after a game the Pirates win by eight or more runs. This actually happened this week, and the email arrived five minutes after the end of the 11-3 win in Denver. I am not making this up.

There are times when I wonder if some folks will know how to react if the Pirates are ever successful on a larger scale ...

First published on August 17, 2005 at 12:00 am