Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. has made a remarkable comeback. The question is whether it is too late for investors to profit from it, at least in the near term.
The Akron, Ohio, tire maker -- a 107-year-old industrial icon that was skirting a bankruptcy filing only a few years ago -- just notched its fifth consecutive quarter of positive net income, aided by effective marketing that has allowed it to charge higher prices and push customers toward more expensive lines of tires. Underscoring its renewed strength, the company earlier this month unveiled another sweeping price increase of as much as 8 percent for car tires in the U.S. starting in September.
Like all tire makers, Goodyear is getting hurt by rising energy and raw-material costs, which are driven by higher oil prices. But the company's renewed vigor has allowed it to largely offset those negatives with price increases of its own.
Some analysts contend the good times have overheated the stock already. Goodyear Tire & Rubber's stock has risen more than 17 percent since the beginning of July. Himanshu Patel, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., wrote in a note to investors Aug. 5 that despite the tire maker's strong second-quarter results, he remains "neutral" on Goodyear "given the stock's recent run." J.P. Morgan owns less than 1 percent of Goodyear's stock and does investment-banking work for the tire maker.
Craig Harris, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Asset Management Inc. in Birmingham, Ala., agrees that "the easiest money has been made in Goodyear." He thinks the company could, among other things, face resistance from customers unwilling to shell out more for its brand of tires.
"We've been taking money off the table in Goodyear," he says. Morgan Asset held 169,775 shares of Goodyear as of March 31.
Still, after a long spell of red ink just a couple of years ago, Goodyear is clearly on the mend, earning profits and rebuilding relations with tire dealers that had grown strained during the company's rough patch. The company also is aiming to rebuild its stature on Wall Street. Goodyear's top managers are coming to New York next month for its first large-scale meeting with investors in nearly two years. Some investors view Goodyear as the next Chrysler, a venerable icon yanked back from the brink of bankruptcy and poised for a long and profitable rebound.
Part of Goodyear's renewed strength can be traced to the larger commodity boom that has occurred during the past year. Goodyear is a major producer of commercial and off-road tires, such as those used on mining equipment, which are in short supply and commanding top prices. The truck business has boomed in the U.S. as companies seek to move more raw materials and finished products over highways. Similarly, the company churns out chemicals that have benefited from higher market prices for industrial chemicals.
Goodyear, with a market value of about $3 billion, also has made progress tackling some its most pressing problems. For instance, it has pushed out the maturities on a large chunk of its $5.4 billion of debt. The company also is expected to soon announce the sale of its engineered-product division, which makes industrial rubber products such as conveyor belts and car parts, and which some analysts believe could bring in as much as $1 billion that could be used to reduce a portion of the company's underfunded pension liabilities.
Saul Ludwig, an analyst at McDonald Investments Inc. in Cleveland, says he believes the company's shares will keep rising. Mr. Ludwig, who boosted his rating on Goodyear to a "buy" from a "hold" last month, has a 12-month target price of $22. McDonald owns less than 1 percent of Goodyear's shares and does investment-banking work for the tire maker.
Mr. Ludwig says he upgraded the stock based on what he was hearing from tire dealers and from Goodyear's management. When Goodyear was in crisis a few years ago, its problems were compounded by the fact that it had alienated its dealers through poor management -- undermining its main sales channel. Many tire dealers began fretting that Goodyear would go under, further damping their enthusiasm for the company's brands.
Mr. Ludwig says Goodyear appears to have won back the support of most dealers, aided most recently by the introduction of two lines of tires reinforced with ultradurable Kevlar material that have been popular among customers. "Tires are all basically the same," Mr. Ludwig says, "so it's a marketing game. Goodyear has come up with something new."
But even Mr. Ludwig sees bumps in the road. Goodyear's cost structure in North America remains bloated, he notes, and the company has "at least five too many" plants in Asia. Analysts expect the company to announce major restructuring moves within the next year or so.
But that could be tricky, since Goodyear must negotiate a new labor contract next year. Goodyear's workers in the U.S. are represented by the United Steelworkers of America. As Goodyear restores its financial health, the union is expected to demand that workers benefit as well.