In spite of expressions of determination to stay the course from President Bush and members of his administration, there is no news out of Iraq that indicates that it is anything other than a mess, and one that is likely to get worse, not better.

The fighting that is taking place now has transformed itself largely into civil war. The 170,000 Iraqi security forces, largely Shiite in composition, represent the Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari. They are opposed and targeted by the largely Sunni insurgents. The Kurds of the north mostly go their own way, except that their autonomy is encouraging Kurds in Turkey and Syria to bestir themselves against their host governments.

Mr. al-Jaafari's government is taking steps to improve its relations with the Shiite-dominated Iranian government. Minister of Defense Saadoun Duleimi visited Iran earlier this month and concluded a military cooperation pact that provides for Iranian training of Iraqi military forces. This is a step that is painful to the Bush administration, given its antagonism with the government in Tehran.

Iraqi insurgent attacks focus on Americans, when they can get a crack at them, and on the Shiite security forces. U.S. war losses are climbing toward 1,800, from a force now standing at about 140,000. Mr. Bush claims not to want to set a timetable for U.S. withdrawal because that would encourage the insurgents to wait the Americans out. That is, of course, what they are doing in any case; progressive American withdrawal will give increasingly free rein to intra-Iraqi warfare as the Iraqis dispute post-American control of the country among themselves.

The bombings in London illustrated that Iraq has increasingly replaced Afghanistan as the primary training ground for terrorists, and the devices used by the suicide bombers appear to have been a form of the explosives developed in Iraq. One recently killed 24 children and an American soldier who was passing out candy to them in Baghdad.

U.S. efforts to encourage other Arab countries to appoint ambassadors to the al-Jaafari government in Iraq were set back when the insurgents kidnapped and killed the Egyptian envoy, Ihab al-Sherif, earlier this month, calling him "an enemy of God." The next step toward making the government one to which the United States can hand over responsibility is the development of a draft constitution, set for Aug. 15 -- a deadline that probably won't be met.

In the meantime, the U.S. Army said this month that it has signed another extension of its contract with Halliburton subsidiary Kellogg Brown & Root for another $5 billion to support U.S. forces in Iraq. The Army had not seen fit to announce the extension when it awarded it in May, in spite of the fact that some of Halliburton's previous billing, which has netted it $9 billion so far in the war, was disputed.

None of this has much to do with American elections, or Republican and Democratic wrangling. Mr. Bush will be president until January 2009, whatever his ratings might be. The Congress shows itself as largely irrelevant to what is going on in Iraq, apart from being required to vote the money to finance the war, now running at about $5 billion a month.

The real problem is that it is becoming increasingly clear that this war will not be won in any way that can be discerned as victory, and, in the meantime, it is draining America's blood away, in the lives of our soldiers and in resources that could be used to meet other needs. President Bush needs to put the war ahead of securing the Supreme Court for the conservative right and protecting Karl Rove in his order of priorities -- and take the necessary steps to bring it to an end.