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New poll shows GOP's Scranton making gains in governor's race
Friday, July 15, 2005

In his bid for a second term, Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell still outpolls his three potential Republican challengers, but one of them, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton, has gained ground, according to a poll released yesterday.

The poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University, says Scranton narrowed the gap from 15 percentage points in April to 10 points now. In a race against Scranton, Rendell was favored by a 47-37 margin.

Rendell's approval rating also has dropped to 47 percent, his lowest in a year.

That's the good news for Scranton. The bad news is that no Pennsylvania governor who has run for re-election has lost. Ever.

As for the other would-be challengers, former Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Lynn Swann still lags behind Rendell by a 48-36 percent margin, while state Sen. Jeff Piccola remains the farthest behind. The gubernatorial election isn't until November 2006.

If the Republicans were to face each other in a primary -- which probably won't happen, as all three are vying for the endorsement of their party -- Swann gets 32 percent of that vote, Scranton gets 21 percent, and Piccola, 6.

One of the reasons for Rendell's dipping numbers, the poll says, is that Pennsylvanians pin much of the blame on Rendell for the failure thus far to deliver property tax relief to state homeowners, one of his campaign promises.

Rendell had hoped that school districts would jump at the chance to reduce property tax rates by replacing local money with a share of the state's future gambling revenue, but nearly four in five school districts opted against enrolling in that plan, known as Act 72.

They didn't like that they'd have to raise the local earned income tax to qualify for the gambling money. Also, some thought the requirement that they subject proposed property tax increases to a referendum vote if the increase is greater than the inflation rate would have been too onerous.

Rendell wants to make the property tax breaks, an average $330 per household, available to all homeowners in Pennsylvania, regardless of how the school boards voted. So one bright spot for Rendell is that those polled overwhelmingly favor the idea that, in school districts that didn't enroll in Act 72, voters themselves should be allowed to push the district into the program.

"Pennsylvania voters clearly want to overrule their local school boards and go with Gov. Ed Rendell's plan," said Clay Richards, assistant director of Quinnipiac's Polling Institute.

The poll also says 60 percent of those polled approve of the overall plan to use slot machine proceeds to reduce property taxes.

In the money race, Rendell has a big head start on his potential Republican competitors, having raised $7.2 million in re-election funds through the first part of June, according to campaign reports. In his last election bid, in 2002, Rendell collected more than $40 million.

First published on July 15, 2005 at 12:00 am
Bill Toland can be reached at btoland@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1889.