You're not going to believe this.
By at least one important measure, the Pirates have the best batters in the league with runners in scoring position. They're also atop the league when the game is late and the score is close, and they're near the top with runners in scoring position and two out. On top of that, only three National League teams have left fewer runners on base.
How can this be? The Pirates have scored fewer runs than any team in the league but those pesky Nationals from Washington.
Here's the problem. It's not that they're not clutch hitters; they just don't create enough clutch situations. They haven't been getting enough runners to second and third. Only the Houston Astros have fewer plate appearances with runners in scoring position, and it's no coincidence the Astros are tied with the Pirates at next to last in runs scored.
The Pirates' batting average, on-base average, slugging average and on-base plus slugging (OPS), and NL rank, in the essential categories:
Overall
256/.324/.407/.730 (13th)
Scoring position
.280/.365/.458/.823 (1st)
Scoring position, two out
.259/.361/.404/.765 (5th)
Close and late
.264/.350/.439/.789 (1st)
Figure that. This team has hit better in "clutch" moments than it has the rest of the time. The problem is the other team has found more ways to score, largely because they have out-homered the Pirates, 94-77, and outwalked them, 324-267. So opponents could leave more men on base (618 to the Pirates 612) and still outscore the Pirates, 403-365.
All those stats came from ESPN.com, with the exception of the LOB numbers, which came from the Pirates. I had less success finding a definitive answer to another frequent e-mail question: Just how bad is this team getting the runner home from third base with less than two out?
I found no team rankings, but I tallied the numbers for 15 Pirates position players (including David Ross and Ty Wigginton). Trusting my math, the non-pitchers had hit better than .300 in those situations going into last weekend. The team is also tied for fourth in the league in sacrifice flies with 26. That doesn't sound bad.
The conspicuous backslider with a runner on third has been All-Star Jason Bay, who has gone 3 for 16 with six strikeouts. But Bay also has four sacrifice flies and 10 RBIs in those 16 at-bats, so I wouldn't worry too long about a sample that could change drastically with two or three hits. Bay is batting .304 and slugging .652 in 69 AB with runners in scoring position.
All this represents significant improvement since April. James Click of Baseball Prospectus wrote a piece in early May that showed the Pirates had been scoring a lower percentage of runners than any team since 1990.
In the season's first 25 games, they were plating about 31 percent of potential runs (LOB plus runs, divided by runs). Since May 4, the Pirates have been plating nearly 40 percent, which would put them fifth if they'd managed that all year.
Alas, not leaving many on base is small comfort when you're not scoring many, and a couple of factors make the Pirates' LOB record look a little better than it should. They've grounded into more double plays (76) than any team except the San Francisco Giants and they've done a worse job stealing bases (27 of 48, 56 percent) than any team except the Nationals.
This team should worry less about doing well in clutch situations and worry more about creating them. The Pirates need to put more guys on base and move more up without giving away outs. That's one reason I liked decision last weekend to send down Ross. The team should spend the second half splitting the catching duties between Humberto Cota and Ryan Doumit. The relevant NL stats:
Average catcher: .245/.307/.377
Average right fielder: .274/.338/.458.
Cota is hitting .252/.307/.436 in 163 AB, so he has been getting on base like an average catcher while showing more power. Cota, 26, could well be an average catcher, maybe even a bit better. That would be fine, but why not shoot for more?
Doumit, 24, has hit below the Mendoza line, without a home run in 71 AB. But he was hitting .345 with 12 home runs and 35 RBIs for AAA Indianapolis when the Pirates called him up five weeks ago. Baseball America rated Doumit as the best defensive catcher last year in the Pirates' minor-league system.
Let's see if Doumit can be an exceptional hitting catcher before transforming him into the next Craig Wilson in right field. Wilson's career OBA of .363 and SLG of .490 make him better than the average right fielder now. Good-hitting catchers are harder to find, and so are Pirates runners.