The Pirates are on a terrific run that has captured the fancy of the public and generated more interest in the team than at any time this century. That being the case, it would be nice if we could just sit back, revel in these accomplishments and look forward to the compelling matchups with the Yankees and Red Sox that begin tonight.
But that's not enough, not nearly enough for some. Rather than savoring this run of success that has left the Pirates one game under .500, some feel compelled to project it over the course of the season. They must evaluate the Pirates' championship hopes. They are so desperate to be involved with a winner that they project forward so fast as to be ridiculous.
The questions of the day should center around the remarkable improvement the team has made since its dreary April, about the astonishing offensive display of Rob Mackowiak and about the extraordinary starting pitching.
But it's none of the above. It's this: To trade or not to trade?
People want to know what kind of stance the Pirates will take in the slight likelihood this play continues and they find themselves a contender as the July 31 trading deadline approaches.
General manager Dave Littlefield took his usual common sense approach and said it was too early to be thinking along those lines.
"A .500 record does not point to a wild-card team," he said. "Are we playing better? Sure. Do I want to be in that position to be a buyer? Absolutely. That's what we hope to have happen. But you've got to deal in reality. We're on a high as to having played well the past four or five weeks, but you've got to be objective about where you're at."
The belief here is that whatever the next six weeks bring for the Pirates, they should be neither a buyer nor seller at the trading deadline. As a seller, they have little to offer -- beyond their core players -- to contenders wishing to deal. As a buyer, they don't have the kind of depth to bring aboard a player who could make an immediate contribution without disturbing their nucleus or their future.
But the real reason they should wait is because the most opportune time to make a major deal -- which is the best and possibly the only way the Pirates can improve their offense -- is in the offseason, not late July.
One of the great myths of baseball is that there are lush prospects to be gathered as the trading deadline approaches. Just look at some of the Pirates' most recent deadline deals:
In July 2003, in exchange for Aramis Ramirez, a middle-of-the-lineup hitter this team dearly could use today, they received Bobby Hill, a utility infielder.
Later that month, in exchange for Jeff Suppan, a mainstay on the rotation of the National League champion St. Louis Cardinals, they received Freddy Sanchez, currently their starting third baseman who was a utility infielder.
In July last year, in exchange for Kris Benson, a middle-of-the rotation starter for a championship-caliber team, they received Ty Wigginton, currently a minor-leaguer.
If you can't get quality prospects for Ramirez, how are you going to get one for Matt Lawton?
Some people think Lawton will be in demand come late July. By whom?
He's a defensively deficient outfielder, who's a major liability on the bases and will be a free agent at the end of the season. If there are teams interested, they won't be offering much.
The Pirates appear to have an excess of pitching. But a contender is not going to want minor-leaguers Zach Duke or Ian Snell. Those teams are going to want a tested starter. The Pirates have those, but they will be far more valuable chips to play in the offseason.
The offseason, when no team is a contender and when former contenders are looking back on disappointing finishes, is the time for major trades to be made -- trades involving players who can be of immediate help, not possible help in the years ahead.
The offseason is the time for the Pirates to package that excess pitching. If, for example, they believe the escalating salary of Kip Wells is becoming too much, it might be the time to shop him. Not, as was the case in the past, for young prospects but for an offensive player who can help. Wells, based on the way he's pitching this season, should be able to attract a quality bat.
And if the Pirates believe Duke and Snell are ready, maybe they could put together a package of pitchers -- Wells and Josh Fogg, for example. No team could rip apart its roster to give quality in return for those two pitchers in the heat of a pennant race. But in the offseason they could.
This run by the Pirates has been great fun. Enjoy it. The trades, if they come at all, are down the road -- hopefully, way down the road.