LAKELAND, Fla. -- The politicians and power brokers of this central Florida town don't like to acknowledge it, but underneath the manicured, tree-lined surface lies the economy of an aging America's future.

The Lakeland area is not a retirement community, dotted with shuffleboard courts and senior centers, but the businesses that cluster here reflect the subtle influence of a population that is markedly older than the current national average.

Polk Community College may attract ambitious young students, as college President J. Larry Durrence says, but they're training to be nurses or respiratory therapists. His wife, an attorney, specializes in "elder law."

Nearly a third of Maureen Shaw's florist business comes either from out-of-state children sending flowers to their retired parents or seniors sending condolence bouquets. Keith DeLoach grew up here. After West Point, the Special Forces and combat in Afghanistan, the 32-year-old just moved back to open a financial services firm -- largely to help retirees stretch their savings.

And don't get the young started on the driving -- drifting off the road, lefts on red, interminable right turns. "Oh, my God, they're sooooo slow," said Michelle Czelusniak, 20.

"General rule," said bartender Joe Varco, 29: "Heads up for white hair and big Cadillacs."

The Lakeland area, from Lakeland proper to Winter Haven 15 miles away, population about half a million -- is a demographic dead ringer for the United States of 2025, according to research by Wake Forest University economists. While other economists strain to project current economic trends into the baby boomers' retirement years, the Wake Forest team devised a novel approach: Find the future today.

What they found was Lakeland, with its Wi-Fi Internet connections and well-tended downtown, and an economy that diverges from the national average in interesting ways. Sure, sales of furniture, garden equipment and cars are booming here as they are in many other places. But grocery stores, restaurants and bars, clothing stores and department stores are pulling in far less of the consumers' dollars than in cities with more representative age demographics.

Health care and golf are in; fast food and musical instruments are out. And forget about doughnuts.

"It is unlikely that the future will look much different than Lakeland," said Sherry L. Jarrell, Garst Reese and Gary L. Shoesmith of Wake Forest's Babcock Graduate School of Management.

By 2025, boomers born in 1955 will be 70. Just less than 20 percent of the U.S. population will be younger than 15, slightly less than today, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. But the middle of the age spectrum will hollow out, as the number of those 65 and older goes from 12.4 percent of the population to 18.2 percent.

The 65-and-over set in Lakeland closely resembles the projected United States of 2025. At 22.6 percent, its 45-to-64 population comes close to the 2025 projection of 23.5 percent. There are 42 residents who are 65 or older for every 100 workers. The nation in 2025 is projected to have 43 Social Security beneficiaries for every 100 workers.

The Wake Forest team examined consumer spending, business prevalence and income sources in six metropolitan areas: two -- York, Pa., and Springfield, Mass. -- that matched the U.S. age demographics of 2005; two -- Youngstown, Ohio, and Utica, N.Y. -- that matched the country's projected age breakdown in 2020; and two -- Lakeland, Fla., and Scranton, Pa. -- that mirrored the projected nation of 2025. They did not attempt to look at how much money the populations of Lakeland or Scranton were collecting from government programs. What they found was a vibrant, self-sustaining town whose economy has naturally drifted to accommodate an older mix of residents.

Critics say the results are anything but scientific.

"It would be like taking two people off the street and making an opinion poll," said Martin K. Holdrich, a senior economist at Woods and Poole Economics Inc., which forecasts economic trends.

Lakeland locals have their own beefs about the Wake Forest comparisons. Patrick Fagan, a regional vice president at RG Crown Bank in Lakeland, said many of the findings make sense for the time being, such as a remarkable profusion of financial services offices, accountants and banks in Lakeland. Elderly northerners are selling their houses for huge profits, buying comparable or smaller homes around Lakeland with cash, then coming for advice with perhaps hundreds of thousands of dollars in their pockets.

But with home prices escalating fast in Lakeland, it is not likely to last here much longer. Why should it last through 2025?

Still, many of the findings point to real trends. Lakeland has more golf courses, golf equipment suppliers and practice ranges than York or Springfield, as might be expected. But so does Scranton. Lakelanders say the explosion of furniture dealers is fueled by young commuters working in Orlando and Tampa. But why does Scranton have twice the number of furniture stores that Springfield has?

"We believe our research results offer the clearest picture to date of future aggregate consumer buying patterns in the United States," the Wake Forest team said.

Edward and Beverly Goodemote left the snows of Rochester, N.Y., 18 years ago for Venice, Fla., just south of Sarasota. Two months ago, they moved to Lakeland to get away from all those old folks.

"I love the kids and families. We're all together -- young and old, all the nationalities," said Beverly Goodemote, 70. "This is what our world is about."