HARRISBURG -- With more than 18 months to go before Pennsylvanians elect a U.S. senator, it's way too soon to say that incumbent Republican Rick Santorum is in trouble.

But a new independent poll by Quinnipiac University of Connecticut is signaling some early problems for the two-term senator from Penn Hills, who's trailing his Democratic challenger, state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr. of Scranton, by a hefty 14 points.

According to the poll, Santorum has fallen behind Casey by a margin of 49 to 35 percent -- a bigger lead for Casey than the 46-41 edge he had in a Feb. 16 poll.

In a visit to the Capitol yesterday, Quinnipiac pollster Clay Richards said Santorum has been hurt by his outspoken public stands in favor of President Bush's Social Security privatization plan and by his Florida trip to see Terri Schiavo, the long-disabled woman who died recently when her feeding tube was removed. Many people saw Santorum's trip as a misguided political stunt, Richards said.

The poll also showed that respondents oppose the Bush Social Security changes by a 55 to 37 percent margin.

"The problem with the president's Social Security plan is that it cuts guaranteed benefits, requires massive borrowing from overseas and does nothing to address the long-term solvency of Social Security," said Marc Farinella, Casey's interim campaign manager.

As for Casey's lead in the poll, he said, "It's always gratifying to see positive poll results but we're not taking anything for granted. We'll run an effective, efficient and aggressive campaign."

Social Security issues likely will be an important part of the 2006 Senate race because Pennsylvania has the highest percentage of senior citizens except for Florida, Richards said.

Pittsburgh-based media consultant John Brabender, who's working for Santorum, said, "It's quite silly to take a poll seriously at this early stage, 19 months before the election. The first poll that will matter will be the first one after Labor Day in September 2006."

Brabender noted that Casey had a 20-point lead in polls in 2002 over Democratic challenger Ed Rendell and wound up losing the gubernatorial primary to Rendell. "Once the campaign starts, you'll see numbers moving quickly," he said.

As for seeing Schiavo, Brabender said, "A lot of people thought it was appropriate for him to go and pray with Terri's parents."

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,395 Pennsylvania voters from April 13-18 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Casey is leading Santorum in all areas of the state except the traditionally conservative central Pennsylvania.

Richards said the abortion issue doesn't appear to be a major factor because both candidates are pro-life.

As the Casey-Santorum race heats up in coming months, Richards said, it "will live up to its billing as the top Senate race in 2006. It's still tremendously early, but I think the Democrats smell blood. There's no one in the Senate they'd rather defeat than Santorum. And the [conservative] side of the political spectrum will make it a top priority to re-elect Santorum. It will be a real slugfest."