Some things matter a great deal in scoring runs, others not that much. In their first dozen games, the Pirates have shown why concentrating on batting average and "contact hitting'' gets you nowhere.
Check these numbers:
Pirates: 104 H, 81 SO, .248 AVG
Opponents: 101 H, 78 SO, .253 AVG
One more strikeout than the other team every four games does not explain why the Pirates have been outscored, 63-37. Nor do the averages. Nor does that other old favorite, batting average with runners in scoring position. The Pirates are hitting .247 there, almost the same as their overall average, good for ninth in the league in those "clutch" situations.
None of that matters as much as this:
Pirates: 7 HR, 37 BB
Bad Guys: 14 HR, 53 BB
This huge differential is as much the fault of Pirates pitchers as their hitters. A year ago, the Pirates gave up the fewest home runs in the league. This year they're 12th. That will change if the top of the rotation settles down, but thus far Oliver Perez (4) and Kip Wells (6) have seen too many of their pitches clear the wall behind them. The staff also has given up more walks than any team other than Colorado, with Wells (13 BB in 182*3 IP) and Perez (12 BB in 15 IP) a huge part of the problem.
The scoring deficit is no surprise when comparing the on-base and slugging averages:
Pirates: .314 OBA/.352 SLG/.666 on-base plus slugging (OPS).
Bad Guys: .346/.439/.784
It could be argued that I'm stating the obvious, but when the season began, manager Lloyd McClendon was rearranging his batting order so "contact hitters'' hit ahead of guys who struck out more often. That's nearly irrelevant.
"We have guys who strike out too much," general manager David Littlefield said.
No, the Pirates have guys who make outs too much. When the best argument for a hitter begins with how much better his outs are, either find another hitter or another argument. That is so easily illustrated it's hard to know where to begin, but let's start with the top of the order.
Matt Lawton strikes out a lot. Jack Wilson does not.
Lawton is tied with Jason Bay for the team lead in strikeouts with 12. Wilson has only three. Lawton is off to a great start. Wilson is sucking wind.
Lawton: .306 AVG, .414 OBA, .449 SLG
Wilson: .196, .245, .217
Nobody looks good striking out, but any fixation on strikeouts rather than outs themselves is misplaced. Besides, the much-coveted "productive out" happened to be one of the few things Pirates batters did well last season.
The Pirates finished third in the league last year in productive outs, according to ESPN. It defines the productive out as one that advances a runner with nobody out, or scores a runner with one out. It broadens that definition for pitchers, giving credit if they advance a runner with the second out.
The Pirates made 601 outs in such situations, 209 of which were productive. That's a .348 percentage. The best team in baseball in this alleged skill was Montreal, at .368, and it used all those great outs to score the third-fewest runs in baseball. The worst team for productive outs was Boston, which scored the most runs in baseball.
How important could it be? Don't answer with that "Yes, but a team like the Pirates" stuff either. You just don't score many runs "doing the little things." The Pirates, in fact, have scored their share this season with infield hits and with Rob Mackowiak flying down the base paths to beat throws. You can win the odd ballgame with hustle, but it can't be the basis of your offense.
The Pirates' problem, going into last night's game, was that the corner infielders had one home run between them. So did the corner outfielders.
Craig Wilson had a home run every 19.3 AB last season and an extra-base hit every 8.1, both of which were close to his career numbers through four seasons. He had no extra-base hits through his first 40 AB this season.
Jason Bay had 30 home runs in his first 498 career AB, but none this season through 50 AB.
The good news is that small sample sizes mean about as much as contact hitting. When weighing career marks against those of two-week or even half-season stretches, go with the larger sample. That's what all the Yankee fans are saying this week, isn't it?